States increasingly confront security threats from exiled economic elites who retain power through offshore wealth, political influence, and informational leverage. This paper introduces the concept of weaponised legal dependence to explain why and how states file commercial lawsuits against their own citizens in foreign courts – particularly in global legal hubs like London – to neutralise these transnational plutocratic threats. While conventional tools of transnational repression (e.g., extradition, abduction, information warfare) target dissidents’ legitimacy or messaging power, only foreign litigation can directly constrain the material assets that underpin a plutocrat’s influence. However, initiating extraterritorial claims is costly, risky, and entails a partial surrender of sovereignty to liberal jurisdictions. I argue that states resort to these legal strategies when they face power parity with plutocrats – situations where neither side has hierarchical control, prompting political conflict to spill into foreign legal systems under the guise of commercial dispute. Drawing on 60 interviews with legal practitioners and case studies from Russia and Kazakhstan, this paper shows how states instrumentalise the credibility of liberal legal institutions to reclaim offshore assets and delegitimise their rivals. In doing so, illiberal regimes exploit liberal infrastructure, turning courts meant to enforce commercial norms into battlegrounds of domestic power politics.

We investigate the properties of the linear two-way fixed effects (FE) estimator for panel data when the underlying data generating process (DGP) does not have a linear parametric structure. The FE estimator is consistent for some pseudo-true value and we characterize the corresponding asymptotic distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is determined by the degree of model misspecification, and that the asymptotic distribution can be non-normal. We propose a novel autoregressive double adaptive wild (AdaWild) bootstrap procedure applicable for a large class of DGPs. Monte Carlo simulations show that it performs well for panels of small and moderate dimensions. We use data from U.S. manufacturing industries to illustrate the benefits of our procedure.

To what extent should workers in physically demanding jobs be given the possibility of earlier retirement? This is one of the many pressing pension reform issues that ageing societies face. This article examines the extent to which such special treatment is supported by the general public. We uniquely combine a representative survey (2,136 respondents) with a vignette study to explore what respondents in the Netherlands consider a fair public pension age for 29 jobs that differ by level of physical demand. We also examine whether these pension ages are associated with other attributes that are important in an ageing society, such as the presence of chronic health conditions and informal care-giving responsibilities – such attributes may affect support for the special provisions for workers in physically demanding jobs – and control for stereotypical views about older workers. The findings reveal notable differences in public pension ages, indicating that workers in highly physically demanding jobs should be given the opportunity to retire earlier and those working in physically ‘light’ jobs should work slightly beyond the standard public pension age. We compare these differences to existing special retirement programmes for physically demanding or arduous jobs. Interestingly, non-work factors – namely, chronic health conditions and care-giving responsibilities – weigh more heavily in deciding a fair or reasonable public pension age. This suggests that organizations and policy makers facing an ageing society will have to deal with a broader set of problems than can be solved by offering early retirement programmes for specific jobs.

In this précis of Radical Skepticism and Epistemic Intuition (Oxford 2021), I highlight the book’s main lines of argument and provide an overview of each of the book’s three parts. I explain how: part I identifies the best kind of argument for radical skepticism and objects to one of the two main ways of responding to it; part II presents my version of the other main way of responding to that skeptical argument (a version that relies heavily on epistemic intuition); and part III defends epistemic intuition (and, thereby, my response to radical skepticism) from several important objections.

Emerging labour crises highlight the detrimental impact of overtime work cultures, such as the 996 working system, which violates the Labour Law of China and mirrors modern labour slavery. Simultaneously, despite China’s Three-Children Policy aimed at increasing national labour force growth, the national fertility rate has remained persistently low over the past decade. Workers require family time and financial security to plan for having children. Changes in family structures and fertility expectations, shaped by social pressures and the government’s advocacy, heavily impact labourers’ household financial behaviour. In response to a high-pressure overwork environment, labourers adopt conservative financial strategies to safeguard their families’ well-being and birth plans. This cautious approach often involves avoiding digital financial tools associated with riskier investments. This study examines the intersection of labour overwork, fertility, and the adoption of digital finance in shaping Chinese families’ investments. Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study analyses the panel data from 7,582 family observations in China between 2018 and 2020. The findings reveal that although digital finance positively influences household financial investment, the 996 work system acts as a moderator to shape this relationship negatively. Moreover, fertility in households further weakens this relationship. These findings provide critical theoretical insights into the dynamics of labour history by portraying a modern slavery picture of overworked labourers and their families in China: too exhausted and financially strained to have babies. It offers practical insights for policymakers aiming to improve labour policies, fertility rates, and household financial resilience.

This article examines the effectiveness of using virtual reality training environments for procedural training in fourth generation airliners. It is based on a study that assessed whether the training outcomes from a current recurrent training course for FAA certificated airframe and power plant technicians, which used a full flight simulator (FFS) to deliver and assess training, differed from the same training delivered using a virtual reality (VR) device. The study used an experimental design with three groups, and two within-group measures of training effectiveness. The control group followed the current training programme and was assessed in the FFS, while the second group was trained using a VR device and was subsequently assessed in the FFS. Training effectiveness was assessed using a modified Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills (GEARS) tool that measured both cognitive and psychomotor aspects of learning alongside the time to successful completion of the assessed task was also measured. The population sampled for the study were all Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certificated airframe and power plant technicians who were engine-run qualified; a total sample of 100 was used to achieve a 95% confidence interval (p < 0.05). The hypothesis under test was that there is no difference in test performance between the three groups. A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) analysis was performed using the GEARS scores and time to completion as variables, and the null hypothesis was retained. The VR system, as tested, was found to provide equivalent task performance to the traditional training method. Recommendations for future research and ongoing application of the specific experimental methodology were provided.

We describe the asymptotic behaviour of large degrees in random hyperbolic graphs for all values of the curvature parameter $\alpha$. We prove that, with high probability, the node degrees satisfy the following ordering property: the ranking of the nodes by decreasing degree coincides with the ranking of the nodes by increasing distance to the centre, at least up to any constant rank. In the sparse regime $\alpha>\tfrac{1}{2}$, the rank at which these two rankings cease to coincide is $n^{1/(1+8\alpha)+o(1)}$. We also provide a quantitative description of the large degrees by proving the convergence in distribution of the normalised degree process towards a Poisson point process. In particular, this establishes the convergence in distribution of the normalised maximum degree of the graph. A transition occurs at $\alpha = \tfrac{1}{2}$, which corresponds to the connectivity threshold of the model. For $\alpha < \tfrac{1}{2}$, the maximum degree is of order $n - O(n^{\alpha + 1/2})$, whereas for $\alpha \geq \tfrac{1}{2}$, the maximum degree is of order $n^{1/(2\alpha)}$. In the $\alpha < \tfrac{1}{2}$ and $\alpha > \tfrac{1}{2}$ cases, the limit distribution of the maximum degree belongs to the class of extreme value distributions (Weibull for $\alpha < \tfrac{1}{2}$ and Fréchet for $\alpha > \tfrac{1}{2}$). This refines previous estimates on the maximum degree for $\alpha > \tfrac{1}{2}$ and extends the study of large degrees to the dense regime $\alpha \leq \tfrac{1}{2}$.

A long-standing classification problem in archaeology is determining the type of weapon delivery system used by people in the past. This is usually done by comparing archaeological points to known dart and arrow points from the ethnographic and archaeological record. There are no simple criteria to discriminate between these two states and the challenge is to identify a subset of traits and their interactions to solve this problem. Here we introduce a Bayesian technique of classifying dart and arrow. Using machine-learning feature selection, we first find the optimal set of variables for classification. We then use a Generalized Additive Model to model the interaction of these variables in a Bayesian logistic framework to capture the nonlinear decision boundary between darts and arrows and assign probabilities of a point belonging to either state. To counteract the imbalance of having more arrows than darts, we adjust the typical decision cutoff using an iterative approach that balances sensitivity and specificity. We increase the sample of known arrow and dart points with 102 previously published specimens from the West. The code for our model is available and easily accessible through an online application. We apply our model to published dart-versus-arrow classifications to demonstrate its utility.

How do populist publics visually represent themselves, and how have shifts in visual technologies altered this process? While research on the visual politics of populism has largely focused on ‘top-down’ uses of imagery by populist leaders and parties, less attention has been paid to how ‘the people’ depict themselves from the ‘bottom up’. This article addresses this gap by theorising the concept of the visual self-mediation of ‘the people’ and tracing its evolution across two emblematic episodes in which contested claims to popular sovereignty were visually enacted: the 2002 Venezuelan coup attempt against Hugo Chávez and the 2021 US Capitol riots. Through a structured, diachronic comparison, the article identifies a broader historical shift – from televisual mediation of ‘the people’, dependent on elite controlled platforms, to digitally enabled self-mediation, wherein publics broadcast themselves as ‘the people’ in real time via smartphones and social media. It analyses how populist publics visually presented themselves, as well as the intended and unintended audiences for these visuals. In foregrounding this transformation, the article contributes to ongoing debates in visual politics, media ecologies, and populism by illustrating how digital infrastructures have reconfigured the visibility, performativity, and legitimacy of populist publics in the twenty-first century.

This article explores the experiences of social participation among Indigenous, migrant and older people with disabilities in Chile. While substantial evidence shows the importance of social participation in ageing policy, research on how diverse groups of older people in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) perceive and engage in it is limited. The article examines the participatory practices of these populations and the challenges they face in accessing and being included in their chosen spaces of engagement. Six focus groups were held with key informants from government offices and community-based organizations, and individual in-depth interviews were conducted with older people. The collected data were then analysed using an inductive content analysis approach. Findings show that several historical and structural factors influence social participation among the three studied groups, particularly their vulnerability to precarity and discrimination in the Chilean context. The dominant perspective of key informants on social participation – as a means of staying healthy, keeping busy and finding contentment – should be contrasted with the actual social, cultural and economic circumstances. Indeed, most of the older participants in this study stated that they use social participation as a means of exercising agency, as it allows them to develop significant and supportive relationships that facilitate their daily lives and provide opportunities for individual and collective empowerment. This article contributes to the development of social gerontology in the Global South by integrating diversity into research design and enhancing understanding of the conditions under which people in Chile age and participate in society.

Climate change affects not only temperatures but also rainfall patterns, which can either accentuate or mitigate the effects of warming on water stress in terrestrial insects. Water stress is more likely to affect eggs and larvae due to their small size. Hemlock looper (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) overwinters as eggs, and first-instar larvae must move to settle on host trees in the spring. Their survival depends both on their energy and water reserves that remain after overwintering and on the abiotic conditions present each spring. The effects of humidity (40, 60, and 80%) on the hatching success, time to hatch, and lifespan of unfed first-instar hemlock looper larvae were assessed at two temperatures, at 10 °C and at 22 °C. Lower humidity levels reduced hatching success and increased time to hatch, suggesting that humidity modulates development. On the other hand, higher temperatures reduced hatching success and time to hatch. The survival probability of unfed first-instar larvae was not influenced by ambient humidity but was longer for larvae from eggs reared at high humidity and 10 °C, suggesting that the physiological state of larvae at the time of hatching influences their survival. The ecological significance of these results and how they can influence our management tools are discussed.

Eighteenth-century Stockholm saw a rise in illegitimate births. Yet, premarital sex was illegal, and the early modern household offered few private spaces. Where did unmarried people meet for courtship, intimacy and sex in the early modern city? In this article, we explore the spaces used for illicit sex through a database containing baptismal records of illegitimate children in eighteenth-century Stockholm. We use these records to map the locations where and approximate times when mothers stated their children were conceived. We find that shared households and workplaces were the most common meeting places for couples, that sexual activity took place towards the city centre and not on its outskirts and that urban households in the eighteenth century appear to have been characterized by a porousness and openness that allowed for the creation of pockets of privacy. Lastly, we find little evidence for any organized sex trade in the sources.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical need for robust crisis standards of care (CSC) protocols to handle extreme strain when scarce resources require rationing. Evaluating how such policies might perform in the real world remains paramount; however, to date, study of their performance has been limited to retrospective cohort designs using virtual simulations.1,2 The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (SOFA)—a composite 0-24 score of organ dysfunction incorporating neurologic, pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematologic, hepatobiliary, and renal subscores—remains ubiquitous in nearly all crisis standards of care protocols3,4,5 despite concerns regarding the utilization and potentially exacerbating existing racial inequities.5 Existing simulation studies have handled missing SOFA values by either imputing zero or assuming data are missing at random, followed by complex computational statistical modeling.6,7 This approach may introduce significant bias, with larger outcome implications than missing data in other forms of medical research, as these values directly affect decisions on who receives life-sustaining therapies. Our study aims to better understand the frequency, structure, and consequence of missing data in CSC simulation studies.