In this paper, we introduce a new large family of Lévy-driven point processes with (and without) contagion, by generalising the classical self-exciting Hawkes process and doubly stochastic Poisson processes with non-Gaussian Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type intensities. The resulting framework may possess many desirable features such as skewness, leptokurtosis, mean-reverting dynamics, and more importantly, the ‘contagion’ or feedback effects, which could be very useful for modelling event arrivals in finance, economics, insurance, and many other fields. We characterise the distributional properties of this new class of point processes and develop an efficient sampling method for generating sample paths exactly. Our simulation scheme is mainly based on the distributional decomposition of the point process and its intensity process. Extensive numerical implementations and tests are reported to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our scheme. Moreover, we use portfolio risk management as an example to show the applicability and flexibility of our algorithms.

The empty space function of a stationary point process in ℝd is the function that assigns to each r, r > 0, the probability that there is no point within distance r of O. In a recent paper Van Lieshout and Baddeley study the so-called J-function, which is defined as the ratio of the empty space function of a stationary point process and that of its corresponding reduced Palm process. They advocate the use of the J-function as a characterization of the type of spatial interaction.

Therefore it is natural to ask whether J ≡ 1 implies that the point process is Poisson. We restrict our analysis to the one-dimensional case and show that a classical construction by Szász provides an immediate counterexample. In this example the interpoint distances are still exponentially distributed. This raises the question whether it is possible to have J ≡ 1 but non-exponentially distributed interpoint distances. We construct a point process with J ≡ 1 but where the interpoint distances are bounded.

A second-order asymptotic result for the probability of occurrence of a persistent and aperiodic recurrent event is given if the tail of the distribution of the waiting time for this event is regularly varying with index −1.

In this paper an exact rejection algorithm for simulating paths of the coupled Wright–Fisher diffusion is introduced. The coupled Wright–Fisher diffusion is a family of multivariate Wright–Fisher diffusions that have drifts depending on each other through a coupling term and that find applications in the study of networks of interacting genes. The proposed rejection algorithm uses independent neutral Wright–Fisher diffusions as candidate proposals, which are only needed at a finite number of points. Once a candidate is accepted, the remainder of the path can be recovered by sampling from neutral multivariate Wright–Fisher bridges, for which an exact sampling strategy is also provided. Finally, the algorithm’s complexity is derived and its performance demonstrated in a simulation study.

A common tool in the practice of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the desired kernel is slow to evaluate or is intractable. A limited set of quantitative tools exists to assess the relative accuracy and efficiency of such approximations. We derive a set of tools for such analysis based on the Hilbert space generated by the stationary distribution we intend to sample, $L_2(\pi)$. Our results apply to approximations of reversible chains which are geometrically ergodic, as is typically the case for applications to MCMC. The focus of our work is on determining whether the approximating kernel will preserve the geometric ergodicity of the exact chain, and whether the approximating stationary distribution will be close to the original stationary distribution. For reversible chains, our results extend the results of Johndrow et al. (2015) from the uniformly ergodic case to the geometrically ergodic case, under some additional regularity conditions. We then apply our results to a number of approximate MCMC algorithms.

A simple proof is given for the best strategy when the game of pure strategy is played.

Conditions implied by the optimality of static priority policies in a special class of stochastic scheduling problems will be derived.

We consider the operation of an insurer with a large initial surplus x>0. The insurer's surplus process S(t) (with S(0)=x) evolves in the range S(t)≥ 0 as a generalized renewal process with positive mean drift and with jumps at time epochs T1,T2,…. At the time Tη(x) when the process S(t) first becomes negative, the insurer's ruin (in the ‘classical’ sense) occurs, but the insurer can borrow money via a line of credit. After this moment the process S(t) behaves as a solution to a certain stochastic differential equation which, in general, depends on the indebtedness, -S(t). This behavior of S(t) lasts until the time θ(x,y) at which the indebtedness reaches some ‘critical’ level y>0. At this moment the line of credit will be closed and the insurer's absolute ruin occurs with deficit -S(θ(x,y)). We find the asymptotics of the absolute ruin probability and the limiting distributions of η(x), θ(x,y), and -S(θ(x,y)) as x → ∞, assuming that the claim distribution is regularly varying. The second-order approximation to the absolute ruin probability is also obtained. The abovementioned results are obtained by using limiting theorems for the joint distribution of η(x) and -S(Tη(x)).

Conditions for a correlated cumulative shock model under which the system failure time is HNBUE are given. It is shown that the proof of a theorem given by Sumita and Shanthikumar (1985) relative to this property is not correct and a correct proof of the theorem is given.

We consider a model for a time series of spatial locations, in which points are placed sequentially at random into an initially empty region of ℝd, and given the current configuration of points, the likelihood at location x for the next particle is proportional to a specified function βk of the current number (k) of points within a specified distance of x. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters βk (assumed to be zero for k exceeding some fixed threshold) is consistent in the thermodynamic limit where the number of points grows in proportion to the size of the region.

We consider the M/M/∞ queue with m primary servers and infinitely many secondary servers. All the servers are numbered and ordered. An arriving customer takes the lowest available server. We define the wasted spaces as the difference between the highest numbered occupied server and the total number of occupied servers. Letting ρ = λ0/μ be the ratio of arrival to service rates, we study the probability distribution of the wasted spaces asymptotically for ρ → ∞. We also give some numerical results and the tail behavior for ρ = O(1).

We study the present value Z∞ = ∫0∞ e-Xt-dYt where (X,Y) is an integrable Lévy process. This random variable appears in various applications, and several examples are known where the distribution of Z∞ is calculated explicitly. Here sufficient conditions for Z∞ to exist are given, and the possibility of finding the distribution of Z∞ by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is investigated in detail. Then the same ideas are applied to the present value Z-∞ = ∫0∞ exp{-∫0tRsds}dYt where Y is an integrable Lévy process and R is an ergodic strong Markov process. Numerical examples are given in both cases to show the efficiency of the Monte Carlo methods.

This paper considers a queueing system with two classes of customers and a single server, where the service policy is of threshold type. As soon as the amount of work required by the class 1 customers is greater than a fixed threshold, the class 1 customers get the server's attention; otherwise the class 2 customers have the priority. Service interruptions can occur for both classes of customers on the basis of the above description of the service mechanism, and in this case the service interruption discipline is preemptive resume priority (PRP). This model, which turns out to be a generalization of the PRP queueing system, has potential applications in computer systems and in communication networks. For Poisson inputs, exponential (arbitrary) servicetime distribution for class 1 (class 2) customers, we derive the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the stationary joint distribution of the workload of the server, by reducing the analysis to the resolution of a boundary value problem. Explicit formulas are obtained.

We consider a branching Brownian motion on starting with n particles of mass 1/n, with interactive branching dynamics. The parameters are unsealed, but depend on the present state of the measure-valued process. For this mean-field model, which is a generalization of Chauvin and Rouault (1990) and Nappo and Orlandi (1988), we prove a propagation of chaos and a fluctuation theorem in ([0, T]; W–5).

A two-dimensional linear birth and death process is a continuous-time Markov chain Y(·) with state space (Z+)2 which can jump from the point (n, m) to one of its four neighbors, with rates that are linear functions of n and m. Criteria are extended for determining whether such a process has a positive probability or zero probability of escaping to infinity. In the transient case considered, the projections of the imbedded Markov chain {Xn} of the successive states visited by Y(·) on a suitable pair of orthonormal vectors v and w are shown to be regularly varying sequences with index 1. Specifically, (Xn, v)∽δn and (Xn, w)∽ kn/log n for positive constants δ and k.

In this paper, we obtain Markovian bounds on a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain. For deriving such bounds, we use well-known results on stochastic majorization of Markov chains and the Rogers–Pitman lumpability criterion. The proposed method of comparison between functions of Markov chains is not equivalent to generalized coupling method of Markov chains, although we obtain same kind of majorization. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of our Markovian bounds. We also discuss the choice of the geometric invariant related to the lumpability condition that we use.

We consider the flow of service starting times in the M/G/1/∞ queue and study some of its equilibrium properties.

In order to estimate the specific intrinsic volumes of a planar Boolean model from a binary image, we consider local digital algorithms based on weighted sums of 2×2 configuration counts. For Boolean models with balls as grains, explicit formulas for the bias of such algorithms are derived, resulting in a set of linear equations that the weights must satisfy in order to minimize the bias in high resolution. These results generalize to larger classes of random sets, as well as to the design-based situation, where a fixed set is observed on a stationary isotropic lattice. Finally, the formulas for the bias obtained for Boolean models are applied to existing algorithms in order to compare their accuracy.

Consider two independent Goldstein-Kac telegraph processes X1(t) and X2(t) on the real line ℝ. The processes Xk(t), k = 1, 2, describe stochastic motions at finite constant velocities c1 > 0 and c2 > 0 that start at the initial time instant t = 0 from the origin of ℝ and are controlled by two independent homogeneous Poisson processes of rates λ1 > 0 and λ2 > 0, respectively. We obtain a closed-form expression for the probability distribution function of the Euclidean distance ρ(t) = |X1(t) - X2(t)|, t > 0, between these processes at an arbitrary time instant t > 0. Some numerical results are also presented.