We derive Laplace transform identities for the volume content of random stopping sets based on Poisson point processes. Our results are based on anticipating Girsanov identities for Poisson point processes under a cyclic vanishing condition for a finite difference gradient. This approach does not require classical assumptions based on set-indexed martingales and the (partial) ordering of index sets. The examples treated focus on stopping sets in finite volume, and include the random missed volume of Poisson convex hulls.

This paper is concerned with the bottom-up hierarchical system and public debate model proposed by Galam (2008), as well as a spatial version of the public debate model. In all three models, there is a population of individuals who are characterized by one of two competing opinions, say opinion −1 and opinion +1. This population is further divided into groups of common size s. In the bottom-up hierarchical system, each group elects a representative candidate, whereas in the other two models, all the members of each group discuss at random times until they reach a consensus. At each election/discussion, the winning opinion is chosen according to Galam's majority rule: the opinion with the majority of representatives wins when there is a strict majority, while one opinion, say opinion −1, is chosen by default in the case of a tie. For the public debate models we also consider the following natural updating rule that we call proportional rule: the winning opinion is chosen at random with a probability equal to the fraction of its supporters in the group. The three models differ in term of their population structure: in the bottom-up hierarchical system, individuals are located on a finite regular tree, in the nonspatial public debate model, they are located on a complete graph, and in the spatial public debate model, they are located on the d-dimensional regular lattice. For the bottom-up hierarchical system and nonspatial public debate model, Galam studied the probability that a given opinion wins under the majority rule and, assuming that individuals' opinions are initially independent, making the initial number of supporters of a given opinion a binomial random variable. The first objective of this paper is to revisit Galam's result, assuming that the initial number of individuals in favor of a given opinion is a fixed deterministic number. Our analysis reveals phase transitions that are sharper under our assumption than under Galam's assumption, particularly with small population size. The second objective is to determine whether both opinions can coexist at equilibrium for the spatial public debate model under the proportional rule, which depends on the spatial dimension.

We consider a host-parasite model for a population of cells that can be of two types, A or B, and exhibits unilateral reproduction: while a B-cell always splits into two cells of the same type, the two daughter cells of an A-cell can be of any type. The random mechanism that describes how parasites within a cell multiply and are then shared into the daughter cells is allowed to depend on the hosting mother cell as well as its daughter cells. Focusing on the subpopulation of A-cells and its parasites, our model differs from the single-type model recently studied by Bansaye (2008) in that the sharing mechanism may be biased towards one of the two types. Our main results are concerned with the nonextinctive case and provide information on the behavior, as n → ∞, of the number of A-parasites in generation n and the relative proportion of A- and B-cells in this generation which host a given number of parasites. As in Bansaye (2008), proofs will make use of a so-called random cell line which, when conditioned to be of type A, behaves like a branching process in a random environment.

The goal of this paper is to identify exponential convergence rates and to find computable bounds for them for Markov processes representing unreliable Jackson networks. First, we use the bounds of Lawler and Sokal (1988) in order to show that, for unreliable Jackson networks, the spectral gap is strictly positive if and only if the spectral gaps for the corresponding coordinate birth and death processes are positive. Next, utilizing some results on birth and death processes, we find bounds on the spectral gap for network processes in terms of the hazard and equilibrium functions of the one-dimensional marginal distributions of the stationary distribution of the network. These distributions must be in this case strongly light-tailed, in the sense that their discrete hazard functions have to be separated from 0. We relate these hazard functions with the corresponding networks' service rate functions using the equilibrium rates of the stationary one-dimensional marginal distributions. We compare the obtained bounds on the spectral gap with some other known bounds.

For a given bivariate Lévy process (Ut, Lt)t≥0, distributional properties of the stationary solutions of the stochastic differential equation dVt = Vt-dUt + dLt are analysed. In particular, the expectation and autocorrelation function are obtained in terms of the process (U, L) and in several cases of interest the tail behavior is described. In the case where U has jumps of size −1, necessary and sufficient conditions for the law of the solutions to be (absolutely) continuous are given.

We study de Finetti's optimal dividend problem, also known as the optimal harvesting problem, in the dual model. In this model, the firm value is affected both by continuous fluctuations and by upward directed jumps. We use a fixed point method to show that the solution of the optimal dividend problem with jumps can be obtained as the limit of a sequence of stochastic control problems for a diffusion. In each problem, the optimal dividend strategy is of barrier type, and the rate of convergence of the barrier and the corresponding value function is exponential.

Suppose that a system is affected by a sequence of random shocks that occur over certain time periods. In this paper we study the discrete censored $\delta$-shock model, $\delta \ge 1$, for which the system fails whenever no shock occurs within a $\delta$-length time period from the last shock, by supposing that the interarrival times between consecutive shocks are described by a first-order Markov chain (as well as under the binomial shock process, i.e., when the interarrival times between successive shocks have a geometric distribution). Using the Markov chain embedding technique introduced by Chadjiconstantinidis et al. (Adv. Appl. Prob. 32, 2000), we study the joint and marginal distributions of the system’s lifetime, the number of shocks, and the number of periods in which no shocks occur, up to the failure of the system. The joint and marginal probability generating functions of these random variables are obtained, and several recursions and exact formulae are given for the evaluation of their probability mass functions and moments. It is shown that the system’s lifetime follows a Markov geometric distribution of order $\delta$ (a geometric distribution of order $\delta$ under the binomial setup) and also that it follows a matrix-geometric distribution. Some reliability properties are also given under the binomial shock process, by showing that a shift of the system’s lifetime random variable follows a compound geometric distribution. Finally, we introduce a new mixed discrete censored $\delta$-shock model, for which the system fails when no shock occurs within a $\delta$-length time period from the last shock, or the magnitude of the shock is larger than a given critical threshold $\gamma >0$. Similarly, for this mixed model, we study the joint and marginal distributions of the system’s lifetime, the number of shocks, and the number of periods in which no shocks occur, up to the failure of the system, under the binomial shock process.

In a fork-join network each incoming job is split into K tasks and the K tasks are simultaneously assigned to K parallel service stations for processing. For the distributions of response times and queue lengths of fork-join networks, no explicit formulae are available. Existing methods provide only analytic approximations for the response time and the queue length distributions. The accuracy of such approximations may be difficult to justify for some complicated fork-join networks. In this paper we propose a perfect simulation method based on coupling from the past to generate exact realisations from the equilibrium of fork-join networks. Using the simulated realisations, Monte Carlo estimates for the distributions of response times and queue lengths of fork-join networks are obtained. Comparisons of Monte Carlo estimates and theoretical approximations are also provided. The efficiency of the sampling algorithm is shown theoretically and via simulation.

We consider spectrally positive Lévy processes with regularly varying Lévy measure and study conditional limit theorems that describe the way that various rare events occur. Specifically, we are interested in the asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of the path of the Lévy process (appropriately scaled) up to some fixed time, conditionally on the event that the process exceeds a (large) positive value at that time. Another rare event we study is the occurrence of a large maximum value up to a fixed time, and the corresponding asymptotic behaviour of the (scaled) Lévy process path. We study these distributional limit theorems both for a centred Lévy process and for one with negative drift. In the latter case, we also look at the reflected process, which is of importance in applications. Our techniques are based on the explicit representation of the Lévy process in terms of a two-dimensional Poisson random measure and merely use the Poissonian properties and regular variation estimates. We also provide a proof for the asymptotic behaviour of the tail of the stationary distribution for the reflected process. The work is motivated by earlier results for discrete-time random walks (e.g. Durrett (1980) and Asmussen (1996)) and also by their applications in risk and queueing theory.

We study the (two-sided) exit time and position of a random walk outside boundaries which are regularly varying functions of smaller order at infinity than the square root. A natural domain of interest is those random walks which are attracted without centring to a normal law, or are relatively stable. These are shown to have ‘stable’ exit positions, in that the overshoot of the curved boundary is of smaller order of magnitude (in probability) than the boundary, as the boundary expands. Surprisingly, this remains true regardless of the shape of the boundary. Furthermore, within the same natural domain of interest, norming of the exit position by, for example, the square root of the exit time (in the finite-variance case), produces limiting distributions which are computable from corresponding functionals of Brownian motion. We give a functional limit theorem for attraction of normed sums to general infinitely divisible random variables, as a means of making this, and more general, computations. These kinds of theorems have applications in sequential analysis, for example.

This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed population whose members are in either a high-risk or a low-risk activity group. Further, members of the high-risk group may change their behaviour by entering the low-risk group. Both stochastic and deterministic models are examined. A limiting model, appropriate when there is a large number of initially susceptible individuals, is used to provide a threshold analysis. The epidemic is compared to a single group epidemic, and to suitably parametrised two-group epidemics, using a coupling method. The total size distribution and effects of changing the behaviour change rate are considered.

Relations of a Markov chain describing the repeated splitting of polygons to processes known from queueing theory are pointed out.

In this paper, the authors consider a class of stochastic systems described by Ito differential equations for which both controls and parameters are to be chosen optimally with respect to a certain performance index over a fixed time interval. The controls to be optimized depend only on partially observed current states as in a work of Fleming. However, he considered, instead, a problem of optimal control of systems governed by stochastic Ito differential equations with Markov terminal time. The fixed time problems usually give rise to the Cauchy problems (unbounded domain) whereas the Markov time problems give rise to the first boundary value problems (bounded domain). This fact makes the former problems relatively more involved than the latter. For the latter problems, Fleming has reported a necessary condition for optimality and an existence theorem of optimal controls. In this paper, a necessary condition for optimality for both controls and parameters combined together is presented for the former problems.

The family of distributions which have the lack-of-memory property is extended by incorporating simple patterns of ageing in the model. Some relatively simple multivariate distributions, obtained in this manner, might prove to be more realistic than distributions like the multivariate exponential.

A new treatment of second-order self-similarity and asymptotic self-similarity for stationary discrete time series is given, based on the fixed points of a renormalisation operator with normalisation factors which are not assumed to be power laws. A complete classification of fixed points is provided, consisting of the fractional noise and one other class. A convenient variance time function approach to process characterisation is used to exhibit large explicit families of processes asymptotic to particular fixed points. A natural, general definition of discrete long-range dependence is provided and contrasted with common alternatives. The closely related discrete form of regular variation is defined, its main properties given, and its connection to discrete self-similarity explained. Folkloric results on long-range dependence are proved or disproved rigorously.

Bifurcating Markov chains (BMCs) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. We provide a central limit theorem for additive functionals of BMCs under $L^2$ -ergodic conditions with three different regimes. This completes the pointwise approach developed in a previous work. As an application, we study the elementary case of a symmetric bifurcating autoregressive process, which justifies the nontrivial hypothesis considered on the kernel transition of the BMCs. We illustrate in this example the phase transition observed in the fluctuations.