The intensity of a stationary process of k-dimensional affine subspaces (k-flats) of ℝd with directional distribution from a given family R is estimated by observing the process in a compact window. To this end we introduce a type of unbiased estimator (the R-estimator) using the available information about the directional distribution.

Special cases are estimators for the intensity of stationary k-flat processes (1) with known directional distribution, (2) with directional distribution invariant with respect to a subgroup of the group of rotations in ℝd and (3) with unknown directional distribution.

We give sufficient conditions for the R-estimator to be the uniformly best unbiased estimator for the intensity of stationary Poisson k-flat processes with directional distribution in R. Equivalent statements for certain types of stationary Cox flat processes can be deduced directly from the results in the Poisson case.

Moreover, we consider stationary ergodic flat processes with directional distribution in R and general stationary flat processes with unknown directional distribution, all with a non-degeneracy property. In both cases our estimator turns out to be the uniformly best unbiased estimator from a restricted set of estimators. The result for general stationary flat processes is proved with the help of a factorization result for the second factorial moment measure.

We define nearest-neighbour point processes on graphs with Euclidean edges and linear networks. They can be seen as analogues of renewal processes on the real line. We show that the Delaunay neighbourhood relation on a tree satisfies the Baddeley‒Møller consistency conditions and provide a characterisation of Markov functions with respect to this relation. We show that a modified relation defined in terms of the local geometry of the graph satisfies the consistency conditions for all graphs with Euclidean edges that do not contain triangles.

We consider a threshold epidemic model on a clustered random graph model obtained from local transformations in an alternating branching process that approximates a bipartite graph. In other words, our epidemic model is such that an individual becomes infected as soon as the proportion of his/her infected neighbors exceeds the threshold q of the epidemic. In our random graph model, each individual can belong to several communities. The distributions for the community sizes and the number of communities an individual belongs to are arbitrary. We consider the case where the epidemic starts from a single individual, and we prove a phase transition (when the parameter q of the model varies) for the appearance of a cascade, i.e. when the epidemic can be propagated to an infinite part of the population. More precisely, we show that our epidemic is entirely described by a multi-type (and alternating) branching process, and then we apply Sevastyanov's theorem about the phase transition of multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. In addition, we compute the entries of the mean progeny matrix corresponding to the epidemic. The phase transition for the contagion is given in terms of the largest eigenvalue of this matrix.

In a branching process with variable lifetime, introduced by Fildes (1972) define Yjk(t) as the number of particles alive in generation k at time t when the initial particle is born in generation j. A limit law similar to that derived in the Bellman-Harris process is proved where it is shown that Yjk(t) suitably normalised converges in mean square to a random variable which is the limit random variable of Znm–n in the Galton-Watson process (m is the mean number of particles born).

We study the problem of maximizing the long-run average growth of total wealth for a logarithmic utility function under the existence of fixed and proportional transaction costs. The market model consists of one riskless asset and d risky assets. Impulsive control theory is applied to this problem. We derive a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of ‘ergodic’ type and obtain a weak solution for the inequality. Using this solution, we obtain an optimal investment strategy to achieve the optimal growth.

In this paper, in work strongly related with that of Coffman et al. [5], Bruss and Robertson [2], and Rhee and Talagrand [15], we focus our interest on an asymptotic distributional comparison between numbers of ‘smallest’ i.i.d. random variables selected by either on-line or off-line policies. Let X1,X2,… be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with distribution function F(x), and let X1,n,…,Xn,n be the sequence of order statistics of X1,…,Xn. For a sequence (cn)n≥1 of positive constants, the smallest fit off-line counting random variable is defined by Ne(cn) := max {j ≤ n : X1,n + … + Xj,n ≤ cn}. The asymptotic joint distributional comparison is given between the off-line count Ne(cn) and on-line counts Nnτ for ‘good’ sequential (on-line) policies τ satisfying the sum constraint ∑j≥1XτjI(τj≤n) ≤ cn. Specifically, for such policies τ, under appropriate conditions on the distribution function F(x) and the constants (cn)n≥1, we find sequences of positive constants (Bn)n≥1, (Δn)n≥1 and (Δ'n)n≥1 such that

for some non-degenerate random variables W and W'. The major tools used in the paper are convergence of point processes to Poisson random measure and continuous mapping theorems, strong approximation results of the normalized empirical process by Brownian bridges, and some renewal theory.

We consider the problem of estimation in a partially observed discrete-time Galton-Watson branching process, focusing on the first two moments of the offspring distribution. Our study is motivated by modelling the counts of new cases at the onset of a stochastic epidemic, allowing for the facts that only a part of the cases is detected, and that the detection mechanism may affect the evolution of the epidemic. In this setting, the offspring mean is closely related to the spreading potential of the disease, while the second moment is connected to the variability of the mean estimators. Inference for branching processes is known for its nonstandard characteristics, as compared with classical inference. When, in addition, the true process cannot be directly observed, the problem of inference suffers significant further perturbations. We propose nonparametric estimators related to those used when the underlying process is fully observed, but suitably modified to take into account the intricate dependence structure induced by the partial observation and the interaction scheme. We show consistency, derive the limiting laws of the estimators, and construct asymptotic confidence intervals, all valid conditionally on the explosion set.

We consider a branching random walk on a multitype (with Q types of particles), supercritical Galton–Watson tree which satisfies the Kesten–Stigum condition. We assume that the displacements associated with the particles of type Q have regularly varying tails of index $\alpha$, while the other types of particles have lighter tails than the particles of type Q. In this paper we derive the weak limit of the sequence of point processes associated with the positions of the particles in the nth generation. We verify that the limiting point process is a randomly scaled scale-decorated Poisson point process using the tools developed by Bhattacharya, Hazra, and Roy (2018). As a consequence, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the position of the rightmost particle in the nth generation.

In the literature on active redundancy allocation, the redundancy lifetimes are usually postulated to be independent of the component lifetimes for the sake of technical convenience. However, this unrealistic assumption leads to a risk of inaccurately evaluating system reliability, because it overlooks the statistical dependence of lifetimes due to common stresses. In this study, for k-out-of-n:F systems with component and redundancy lifetimes linked by the Archimedean copula, we show that (i) allocating more homogeneous redundancies to the less reliable components tends to produce a redundant system with stochastically larger lifetime, (ii) the reliability of the redundant system can be uniformly maximized through balancing the allocation of homogeneous redundancies in the context of homogeneous components, and (iii) allocating a more reliable matched redundancy to a less reliable component produces a more reliable system. These novel results on k-out-of-n:F systems in which component and redundancy lifetimes are statistically dependent are more applicable to the complicated engineering systems that arise in real practice. Some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate these findings.

It is proved that a distribution F is strongly unimodal iff any two quantiles of the convolution of F with any other distribution are further apart than the corresponding quantiles of F itself. Some related characterizations of strong unimodality are also given.

For several common parent laws, the number of vertices of a sample convex hull follows a kind of law of large numbers. We exhibit an example of a parent law which contradicts a general conjecture about this matter.

Consider a network whose nodes are the integer lattice points and whose arcs are fuses of 1Ω resistance. Remove a horizontal segment of N adjacent vertical arcs, forming a ‘crack’ of length N. Subject the network to a uniform potential gradient of v volts per arc in the north-south (or vertical) direction and measure the current in one of the two vertical arcs at the ends of the crack. We write this current in the form e(N)v, and call e(N) the current enhancement.

We show that the enhancement grows at a rate that is the order of the square root of the crack length. Our method is to identify the enhancement with the mean time to exit an interval for a certain integer valued random walk, and then to use some of the well-known Fourier methods for studying random walk. Our random walk has no mean or higher moments and is in the domain of attraction of the Cauchy law. We provide a good approximation to the enhancement using the explicitly known mean time to exit an interval for a Cauchy process. Weak convergence arguments together with an estimate of a recurrence probability enable us to show that the current in an intact fuse, that is in the interior of a crack of length N, grows p roportionally with N/logN.

The empty space function of a stationary point process in ℝd is the function that assigns to each r, r > 0, the probability that there is no point within distance r of O. In a recent paper Van Lieshout and Baddeley study the so-called J-function, which is defined as the ratio of the empty space function of a stationary point process and that of its corresponding reduced Palm process. They advocate the use of the J-function as a characterization of the type of spatial interaction.

Therefore it is natural to ask whether J ≡ 1 implies that the point process is Poisson. We restrict our analysis to the one-dimensional case and show that a classical construction by Szász provides an immediate counterexample. In this example the interpoint distances are still exponentially distributed. This raises the question whether it is possible to have J ≡ 1 but non-exponentially distributed interpoint distances. We construct a point process with J ≡ 1 but where the interpoint distances are bounded.

We present solutions to nonzero-sum games of optimal stopping for Brownian motion in [0, 1] absorbed at either 0 or 1. The approach used is based on the double partial superharmonic characterisation of the value functions derived in Attard (2015). In this setting the characterisation of the value functions has a transparent geometrical interpretation of 'pulling two ropes' above 'two obstacles' which must, however, be constrained to pass through certain regions. This is an extension of the analogous result derived by Peskir (2009), (2012) (semiharmonic characterisation) for the value function in zero-sum games of optimal stopping. To derive the value functions we transform the game into a free-boundary problem. The latter is then solved by making use of the double smooth fit principle which was also observed in Attard (2015). Martingale arguments based on the Itô–Tanaka formula will then be used to verify that the solution to the free-boundary problem coincides with the value functions of the game and this will establish the Nash equilibrium.

In this paper, we introduce a new large family of Lévy-driven point processes with (and without) contagion, by generalising the classical self-exciting Hawkes process and doubly stochastic Poisson processes with non-Gaussian Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type intensities. The resulting framework may possess many desirable features such as skewness, leptokurtosis, mean-reverting dynamics, and more importantly, the ‘contagion’ or feedback effects, which could be very useful for modelling event arrivals in finance, economics, insurance, and many other fields. We characterise the distributional properties of this new class of point processes and develop an efficient sampling method for generating sample paths exactly. Our simulation scheme is mainly based on the distributional decomposition of the point process and its intensity process. Extensive numerical implementations and tests are reported to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our scheme. Moreover, we use portfolio risk management as an example to show the applicability and flexibility of our algorithms.

We illustrate a technique for computing certain integrals that arise in probability theory by giving a new derivation of a formula of Kingman. This formula contains the joint distribution of the processes F(t) = inf {s: X(t + s) = b} and B(t) = inf{s: X(t - s) = b} where X is a time homogeneous, continuous parameter, Markov process and b is a fixed point in its state space. We then extend this formula to the situation in which b is replaced by a finite set {b1, …, bn}.

In the high-level operations of computer vision it is taken for granted that image features have been reliably detected. This paper addresses the problem of feature extraction by scale-space methods. There has been a strong development in scale-space theory and its applications to low-level vision in the last couple of years. Scale-space theory for continuous signals is on a firm theoretical basis. However, discrete scale-space theory is known to be quite tricky, particularly for low levels of scale-space smoothing. The paper is based on two key ideas: to investigate the stochastic properties of scale-space representations and to investigate the interplay between discrete and continuous images. These investigations are then used to predict the stochastic properties of sub-pixel feature detectors.

The modeling of image acquisition, image interpolation and scale-space smoothing is discussed, with particular emphasis on the influence of random errors and the interplay between the discrete and continuous representations. In doing so, new results are given on the stochastic properties of discrete and continuous random fields. A new discrete scale-space theory is also developed. In practice this approach differs little from the traditional approach at coarser scales, but the new formulation is better suited for the stochastic analysis of sub-pixel feature detectors.

The interpolated images can then be analysed independently of the position and spacing of the underlying discretisation grid. This leads to simpler analysis of sub-pixel feature detectors. The analysis is illustrated for edge detection and correlation. The stochastic model is validated both by simulations and by the analysis of real images.

A common tool in the practice of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the desired kernel is slow to evaluate or is intractable. A limited set of quantitative tools exists to assess the relative accuracy and efficiency of such approximations. We derive a set of tools for such analysis based on the Hilbert space generated by the stationary distribution we intend to sample, $L_2(\pi)$. Our results apply to approximations of reversible chains which are geometrically ergodic, as is typically the case for applications to MCMC. The focus of our work is on determining whether the approximating kernel will preserve the geometric ergodicity of the exact chain, and whether the approximating stationary distribution will be close to the original stationary distribution. For reversible chains, our results extend the results of Johndrow et al. (2015) from the uniformly ergodic case to the geometrically ergodic case, under some additional regularity conditions. We then apply our results to a number of approximate MCMC algorithms.

A second-order asymptotic result for the probability of occurrence of a persistent and aperiodic recurrent event is given if the tail of the distribution of the waiting time for this event is regularly varying with index −1.