A simple direct proof is given of Minkowski's result that the mean length of the orthogonal projection of a convex set in E3 onto an isotropic random line is (2π)–1 times the integral of mean curvature over its surface. This proof is generalised to a correspondingly direct derivation of an analogous formula for the mean projection of a convex set in En onto an isotropic random s-dimensional subspace in En. (The standard derivation of this, and a companion formula, to be found in Bonnesen and Fenchel's classic book on convex sets, is most indirect.) Finally, an alternative short inductive derivation (due to Matheron) of both formulae, by way of Steiner's formula, is presented.

The covariogram gK(x) of a convex body K ⊆ Ed is the function which associates to each x ∈ Ed the volume of the intersection of K with K + x, where Ed denotes the Euclidean d-dimensional space. Matheron (1986) asked whether gK determines K, up to translations and reflections in a point. Positive answers to Matheron's question have been obtained for large classes of planar convex bodies, while for d ≥ 3 there are both positive and negative results. One of the purposes of this paper is to sharpen some of the known results on Matheron's conjecture indicating how much of the covariogram information is needed to get the uniqueness of determination. We indicate some subsets of the support of the covariogram, with arbitrarily small Lebesgue measure, such that the covariogram, restricted to those subsets, identifies certain geometric properties of the body. These results are more precise in the planar case, but some of them, both positive and negative ones, are proved for bodies of any dimension. Moreover some results regard most convex bodies, in the Baire category sense. Another purpose is to extend the class of convex bodies for which Matheron's conjecture is confirmed by including all planar convex bodies possessing two nondegenerate boundary arcs being reflections of each other.

Given sets C and R in d-dimensional space, take a constant intensity Poisson point process on R; the associated scan statistic S is the maximum number of Poisson points in any translate of C. As R becomes large with C fixed, bounded and open but otherwise arbitrary, the distribution of S becomes concentrated on at most two adjacent integers. A similar result holds when the underlying Poisson process is replaced by a binomial point process, and these results can be extended to a large class of nonuniform distributions. Also, similar results hold for other finite-range scanning schemes such as the clique number of a geometric graph.

For a Borel set A and a homogeneous Poisson point process η in of intensity λ>0, define the Poisson–Voronoi approximation Aη of A as a union of all Voronoi cells with nuclei from η lying in A. If A has a finite volume and perimeter, we find an exact asymptotic of E Vol(AΔ Aη) as λ→∞, where Vol is the Lebesgue measure. Estimates for all moments of Vol(Aη) and Vol(AΔ Aη) together with their asymptotics for large λ are obtained as well.

The so-called STIT tessellations form a class of homogeneous (spatially stationary) tessellations in Rd which are stable under the nesting/iteration operation. In this paper we establish the mixing property for these tessellations and give the decay rate of P(A ∩ M = ∅, ThB ∩ M = ∅) / P(A ∩ Y = ∅)P(B ∩ Y = ∅) − 1, where A and B are both compact connected sets, h is a vector of Rd, Th is the corresponding translation operator, and M is a STIT tessellation.

Vertices arrive sequentially in space and are joined to existing vertices at random according to a preferential rule combining degree and spatial proximity. We investigate phase transitions in the resulting graph as the relative strengths of these two components of the attachment rule are varied.

Previous work of one of the authors showed that when the geometric component is weak, the limiting degree sequence mimics the standard Barabási-Albert preferential attachment model. We show that at the other extreme, in the case of a sufficiently strong geometric component, the limiting degree sequence mimics a purely geometric model, the on-line nearest-neighbour graph, for which we prove some extensions of known results. We also show the presence of an intermediate regime, with behaviour distinct from both the on-line nearest-neighbour graph and the Barabási-Albert model; in this regime, we obtain a stretched exponential upper bound on the degree sequence.

A body receives a sequence of rotations through a fixed angle about an axis whose direction is arbitrary. The probability distribution governing the resulting orientation of the body is determined. The problem is generalized to the case where the axis of each individual rotation makes the same angle, Θ, with an axis fixed in the body but is otherwise random. The resulting distribution is shown, in the case , to reduce to the Roberts-Ursell distribution for random walk on a sphere. Some diffusion limits are examined.

Let n points be placed independently in d-dimensional space according to the density f(x) = Ade−λ||x||α, λ, α > 0, x ∈ ℝd, d ≥ 2. Let dn be the longest edge length of the nearest-neighbor graph on these points. We show that (λ−1 log n)1−1/α dn - bn converges weakly to the Gumbel distribution, where bn ∼ ((d − 1)/λα) log log n. We also prove the following strong law for the normalized nearest-neighbor distance d̃n = (λ−1 log n)1−1/α dn/ log log n: (d − 1)/αλ ≤ lim infn→∞d̃n ≤ lim supn→∞d̃n ≤ d/αλ almost surely. Thus, the exponential rate of decay α = 1 is critical, in the sense that, for α > 1, dn → 0, whereas, for α ≤ 1, dn → ∞ almost surely as n → ∞.

Subsolutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated with a moderate deviations approximation are used to design importance sampling changes of measure for stochastic recursive equations. Analogous to what has been done for large deviations subsolution-based importance sampling, these schemes are shown to be asymptotically optimal under the moderate deviations scaling. We present various implementations and numerical results to contrast their performance, and also discuss the circumstances under which a moderate deviation scaling might be appropriate.

A dynamic co-operative two-person game with imperfect information is considered, in which the conflicting aspects of an optimal policy (choice of actions to minimise ‘own cost’, and choice of actions to optimise communication of information) can to a large extent be decoupled and solved separately. In deriving a strategy which is asymptotically optimal (in a sense explained) we derive formulae for the capacity of a vector Gaussian channel and the rate-distortion of a vector Gaussian source.

It is shown that the optimal strategy is in general non-linear in observables, but a numerical example shows that, at least in one rather special but non-trivial case, the best linear strategy may be very nearly optimal. This conclusion is made explicit by the analysis of Section 7.

Effects of sampling procedures on the probability distributions of pedigrees are illustrated. Elimination of these effects by suitable conditioning is demonstrated.

Obtaining a closed-form sampling distribution for the coalescent with recombination is a challenging problem. In the case of two loci, a new framework based on an asymptotic series has recently been developed to derive closed-form results when the recombination rate is moderate to large. In this paper, an arbitrary number of loci is considered and combinatorial approaches are employed to find closed-form expressions for the first couple of terms in an asymptotic expansion of the multi-locus sampling distribution. These expressions are universal in the sense that their functional form in terms of the marginal one-locus distributions applies to all finite- and infinite-alleles models of mutation.

The secretary problem for selecting one item so as to minimize its expected rank, based on observing the relative ranks only, is revisited. A simple suboptimal rule, which performs almost as well as the optimal rule, is given. The rule stops with the smallest i such that Ri≤ic/(n+1-i) for a given constant c, where Ri is the relative rank of the ith observation and n is the total number of items. This rule has added flexibility. A curtailed version thereof can be used to select an item with a given probability P, P<1. The rule can be used to select two or more items. The problem of selecting a fixed percentage, α, 0<α<1, of n, is also treated. Numerical results are included to illustrate the findings.

Let (X, S) = {(Xn, Sn); n ≧0} be a Markov random walk with finite state space. For a ≦ 0 < b define the stopping times τ= inf {n:Sn > b} and T= inf{n:Sn∉(a, b)}. The diffusion approximations of a one-barrier probability P {τ < ∝ | Xo= i}, and a two-barrier probability P{ST ≧b | Xo = i} with correction terms are derived. Furthermore, to approximate the above ruin probabilities, the limiting distributions of overshoot for a driftless Markov random walk are involved.

A new statistical method for estimating the orientation distribution of fibres in a fibre process is suggested where the process is observed in the form of a degraded digital greyscale image. The method is based on line transect sampling of the image in a few fixed directions. A well-known method based on stereology is available if the intersections between the transects and fibres can be counted. We extend this to the case where, instead of the intersection points, only scaled variograms of grey levels along the transects are observed. The nonlinear estimation equations for a parametric orientation distribution as well as a numerical algorithm are given. The method is illustrated by a real-world example and simulated examples where the elliptic orientation distribution is applied. In its simplicity, the new approach is intended for industrial on-line estimation of fibre orientation in disordered fibrous materials.

Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework for studying large events. In the multivariate setting, the spectral measure characterizes the dependence structure of the extremes. This measure gathers information on the localization of extreme events and often has sparse support since severe events do not simultaneously occur in all directions. However, it is defined through weak convergence, which does not provide a natural way to capture this sparsity structure. In this paper, we introduce the notion of sparse regular variation, which makes it possible to better learn the dependence structure of extreme events. This concept is based on the Euclidean projection onto the simplex, for which efficient algorithms are known. We prove that under mild assumptions sparse regular variation and regular variation are equivalent notions, and we establish several results for sparsely regularly varying random vectors.

Nonnegative infinitely divisible (i.d.) random variables form an important class of random variables. However, when this type of random variable is specified via Lévy densities that have infinite integrals on (0, ∞), except for some special cases, exact sampling is unknown. We present a method that can sample a rather wide range of such i.d. random variables. A basic result is that, for any nonnegative i.d. random variable X with its Lévy density explicitly specified, if its distribution conditional on X ≤ r can be sampled exactly, where r > 0 is any fixed number, then X can be sampled exactly using rejection sampling, without knowing the explicit expression of the density of X. We show that variations of the result can be used to sample various nonnegative i.d. random variables.

In this paper we establish large deviation results on the number of extreme points of a homogeneous Poisson point process in the unit ball of Rd. In particular, we deduce an almost-sure law of large numbers in any dimension. As an auxiliary result we prove strong localization of the extreme points in an annulus near the boundary of the ball.

One of two random variables, X and Y, can be selected at each of a possibly infinite number of stages. Depending on the outcome, one's fortune is either increased or decreased by 1. The probability of increase may not be known for either X or Y. The objective is to increase one's fortune to G before it decreases to g, for some integral g and G; either may be infinite.

In Part I (Berry and Fristedt (1980)), the distribution of X is unknown and that of Y is known. In the current part, it is known that either X or Y has probability α of increasing the current fortune by 1 and the other has probability β of increasing the fortune by 1, where α and β are known, but which goes with X is not known. We show that optimal strategies exist in general and find all optimal schemes when α = 0 and when α + β = 1. In both cases myopic strategies are shown to be optimal. A counterexample is used to show that myopic strategies, while intuitively very appealing, are not optimal for general (α, β).