The paper studies the sensitivity of the throughput with respect to a mean service rate in a closed queueing network with exponentially distributed service requirements and state-dependent service rates. The study is based on perturbation analysis of queueing networks. A new concept, the realization factor of a perturbation, is introduced. The properties of realization factors are discussed, and a set of equations specifying the realization factors are derived. The elasticity of the steady state throughput with respect to a mean service rate equals the product of the steady state probability and the corresponding realization factor. This elasticity can be estimated by applying a perturbation analysis algorithm to a sample path of the system. The sample path elasticity of the throughput with respect to a mean service rate converges with probability 1 to the elasticity of the steady state throughput. The theory provides an analytical method of calculating the throughput sensitivity and justifies the application of perturbation analysis.

Small-world graphs are examples of random graphs which mimic empirically observed features of social networks. We propose an intrinsic definition of small-world graphs, based on a probabilistic formulation of scaling properties of the graph, which does not rely on any particular construction. Our definition is shown to encompass existing models of small-world graphs, proposed by Watts (1999) and studied by Barbour and Reinert (2001), which are based on random perturbations of a regular lattice. We also propose alternative constructions of small-world graphs which are not based on lattices and study their scaling properties.

The model considered here consists of n operating units which are subject to stochastic failure according to an exponential failure time distribution. Failures can be of two types. With probability p(q) a failure is of type 1(2) and is sent to repair facility 1(2) for repair. Repair facility 1(2) operates as a -server queue with exponential repair times having parameter μ1 (μ2). The number of units waiting for or undergoing repair at each of the two facilities is a continuous-parameter Markov chain with finite state space. This paper derives limit theorems for the stationary distribution of this Markov chain as n becomes large under the assumption that both and grow linearly with n. These limit theorems give very useful approximations, in terms of the six parameters characterizing the model, to a distribution that would be difficult to use in practice.

This paper is concerned with the finiteness and large-time behaviour of moments of the overshoot and undershoot of a high level, and of their moment generating functions (MGFs), for a Lévy process which drifts to -∞ almost surely. This provides information relevant to quantities associated with the ruin of an insurance risk process. Results of Klüppelberg, Kyprianou, and Maller (2004) and Doney and Kyprianou (2006) for asymptotic overshoot and undershoot distributions in the class of Lévy processes with convolution equivalent canonical measures are shown to have moment and MGF convergence extensions.

In this paper we provide a perturbation analysis of finite time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. We derive closed-form representations for the derivative of the transition probability at time t, with t > 0. Elaborating on this result, we derive simple gradient estimators for transient performance characteristics either taken at some fixed point in time t, or for the integrated performance over a time interval [0 , t]. Bounds for transient performance sensitivities are presented as well. Eventually, we identify a structural property of the derivative of the generator matrix of a Markov chain that leads to a significant simplification of the estimators.

This paper complements two previous studies (Daley and Rolski (1984), (1991)) by investigating limit properties of the waiting time in k-server queues with renewal arrival process under ‘light traffic' conditions. Formulae for the limits of the probability of waiting and the waiting time moments are derived for the two approaches of dilation and thinning of the arrival process. Asmussen's (1991) approach to light traffic limits applies to the cases considered, of which the Poisson arrival process (i.e. M/G/k) is a special case and for which formulae are given.

We examine a replacement model for a semi-Markov shock model with additive damage. Sufficient conditions are given for the optimality of control limit policies. The paper generalizes and unifies previous research in the area.

In addition, we investigate in detail the practical modelling and computational aspects of the replacement problem using a semi-Markov modelling structure.

The aim of this paper is to analyze a class of random processes which models the motion of a particle on the real line with random velocity and subject to the action of friction. The speed randomly changes when a Poissonian event occurs. We study the characteristic and moment generating functions of the position reached by the particle at time t > 0. We are able to derive the explicit probability distributions in a few cases. The moments are also widely analyzed. For the random motions having an explicit density law, further interesting probabilistic interpretations emerge if we consider randomly varying time. Essentially, we consider two different types of random time, namely Bessel and gamma times, which contain, as particular cases, some important probability distributions (e.g. Gaussian, exponential). For the random processes built by means of these compositions, we derive the probability distributions for a fixed number of Poisson events. Some remarks on possible extensions to random motions in higher spaces are proposed. We focus our attention on the persistent planar random motion.

An unbiased stereological estimator for surface area density is derived for gradient surface processes which form a particular class of non-stationary spatial surface processes. Vertical planar sections are used for the estimation. The variance of the estimator is studied and found to be infinite for certain types of surface processes. A modification of the estimator is presented which exhibits finite variance.

The theory of insensitivity is extended to include processes where some of the routing probabilities of the process are made dependent upon the length of time the generally distributed variables have been alive. Examples of such systems are given, including networks of queues with age-dependent routing.

This study presents functional limit theorems for the Euler characteristic of Vietoris–Rips complexes. The points are drawn from a nonhomogeneous Poisson process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ , and the connectivity radius governing the formation of simplices is taken as a function of the time parameter t, which allows us to treat the Euler characteristic as a stochastic process. The setting in which this takes place is that of the critical regime, in which the simplicial complexes are highly connected and have nontrivial topology. We establish two ‘functional-level’ limit theorems, a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem, for the appropriately normalized Euler characteristic process.

In this paper we demonstrate how some characteristics of queues with the periodic Poisson arrivals can be approximated by the respective characteristics in queues with Markov modulated input. These Markov modulated queues were recently studied by Regterschot and de Smit (1984). The approximation theorems are given in terms of the weak convergence of some characteristics and their uniform integrability. The approximations are applicable for the following characteristics: mean workload, mean workload at the time of day, mean delay, mean queue size.

In this paper we study random Apollonian networks (RANs) and evolving Apollonian networks (EANs), in d dimensions for any d≥2, i.e. dynamically evolving random d-dimensional simplices, looked at as graphs inside an initial d-dimensional simplex. We determine the limiting degree distribution in RANs and show that it follows a power-law tail with exponent τ=(2d-1)/(d-1). We further show that the degree distribution in EANs converges to the same degree distribution if the simplex-occupation parameter in the nth step of the dynamics tends to 0 but is not summable in n. This result gives a rigorous proof for the conjecture of Zhang et al. (2006) that EANs tend to exhibit similar behaviour as RANs once the occupation parameter tends to 0. We also determine the asymptotic behaviour of the shortest paths in RANs and EANs for any d≥2. For RANs we show that the shortest path between two vertices chosen u.a.r. (typical distance), the flooding time of a vertex chosen uniformly at random, and the diameter of the graph after n steps all scale as a constant multiplied by log n. We determine the constants for all three cases and prove a central limit theorem for the typical distances. We prove a similar central limit theorem for typical distances in EANs.

Nearest-neighbour random walks on the non-negative integers with transition probabilities p0,1 = 1, pk,k–1 = gk, pk,k+1 = 1– gk (0 < gk < 1, k = 1, 2, …) are studied by use of generating functions and continued fraction expansions. In particular, when (gk) is a periodic sequence, local limit theorems are proved and the harmonic functions are determined. These results are applied to simple random walks on certain trees.

A sequence Xn, 1 of independent and identically distributed random vectors is considered. Under a condition of regular variation, the number of vertices of the convex hull of {X1, …, Xn} converges in distribution to the number of vertices of the convex hull of a certain Poisson point process. In this paper, it is proved without sharpening the conditions that the expectation of this number also converges; expressions are found for its limit, generalizing results of Davis et al. (1987). We also present some results concerning other quantities of interest, such as area and perimeter of the convex hull and the probability that a given point belongs to the convex hull.

For every N ≧ 1, let be a real-valued stationary process, and let . Suppose that and var, where ∊N and τN are positive null sequences. Limiting distributions of as N → ∞ are obtained for the cases τN = ∊N and τN = o(∊N). These results are established by an extension of a method due to Moran. The theory is illustrated by a variety of applications to genetic models.

Let [An, Bn] be random subintervals of [0, 1] defined recursively as follows. Let A1 = 0, B1 = 1 and take Cn, Dn to be the minimum and maximum of k, i.i.d. random points uniformly distributed on [An, Bn]. Choose [An+1, Bn+1] to be [Cn, Bn], [Any Dn] or [Cn, Dn] with probabilities p, q, r respectively, p + q + r = 1. It is shown that the limiting distribution of [Any Bn] has the beta distribution on [0,1] with parameters k(p + r) and k(q + r). The result is used to consider a randomized version of Golden Section search.

Consider, initially, a time series regression model of the simplest kind, namely Assume that x(t) is second-order stationary with zero mean and absolutely continuous spectrum with density f(ω) so that The y(t) are taken to be part of a sequence generated entirely independently of x(t) and will be treated as constants. Let βN be the least squares estimate of β and Call the numerator and denominator of b(N), respectively, c(N), d(N). We shall use K for a positive finite constant, not always the same one. We have the following result, which is Menchoff's inequality [3].

We present autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes with bivariate exponential (BE) and bivariate geometric (BG) distributions. The theory of positive dependence is used to show that in various cases, the BEAR, BGAR, BEARMA, and BGARMA models consist of associated random variables. We discuss special cases of the BEAR and BGAR processes in which the bivariate processes are stationary and have well-known bivariate exponential and geometric distributions. Finally, we fit a BEAR model to a real data set.

In this paper we consider a generalized coupon collection problem in which a customer repeatedly buys a random number of distinct coupons in order to gather a large number n of available coupons. We address the following question: How many different coupons are collected after k = kn draws, as n → ∞? We identify three phases of kn: the sublinear, the linear, and the superlinear. In the growing sublinear phase we see o(n) different coupons, and, with true randomness in the number of purchases, under the appropriate centering and scaling, a Gaussian distribution is obtained across the entire phase. However, if the number of purchases is fixed, a degeneracy arises and normality holds only at the higher end of this phase. If the number of purchases have a fixed range, the small number of different coupons collected in the sublinear phase is upgraded to a number in need of centering and scaling to become normally distributed in the linear phase with a different normal distribution of the type that appears in the usual central limit theorems. The Gaussian results are obtained via martingale theory. We say a few words in passing about the high probability of collecting nearly all the coupons in the superlinear phase. It is our aim to present the results in a way that explores the critical transition at the ‘seam line’ between different Gaussian phases, and between these phases and other nonnormal phases.