In this article we prove new central limit theorems (CLTs) for several coupled particle filters (CPFs). CPFs are used for the sequential estimation of the difference of expectations with respect to filters which are in some sense close. Examples include the estimation of the filtering distribution associated to different parameters (finite difference estimation) and filters associated to partially observed discretized diffusion processes (PODDP) and the implementation of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) identity. We develop new theory for CPFs, and based upon several results, we propose a new CPF which approximates the maximal coupling (MCPF) of a pair of predictor distributions. In the context of ML estimation associated to PODDP with time-discretization $\Delta_l=2^{-l}$ , $l\in\{0,1,\dots\}$ , we show that the MCPF and the approach of Jasra, Ballesio, et al. (2018) have, under certain assumptions, an asymptotic variance that is bounded above by an expression that is of (almost) the order of $\Delta_l$ ( $\mathcal{O}(\Delta_l)$ ), uniformly in time. The $\mathcal{O}(\Delta_l)$ bound preserves the so-called forward rate of the diffusion in some scenarios, which is not the case for the CPF in Jasra et al. (2017).

For continuous-time Markov chains with semigroups P, P' taking values in a partially ordered set, such that P ≤ stP', we show the existence of an order-preserving Markovian coupling and give a way to construct it. From our proof, we also obtain the conditions of Brandt and Last for stochastic domination in terms of the associated intensity matrices. Our result is applied to get necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of Markovian couplings between two Jackson networks.

We study a Markovian model for a perishable inventory system with random input and an external source of obsolescence: at Poisson random times the whole current content of the system is spoilt and must be scrapped. The system can be described by its virtual death time process. We derive its stationary distribution in closed form and find an explicit formula for the Laplace transform of the cycle length, defined as the time between two consecutive item arrivals in an empty system. The results are used to compute several cost functionals. We also derive these functionals under the corresponding heavy traffic approximation, which is modeled using a Brownian motion in [0,1] reflected at 0 and 1 and restarted at 1 at the Poisson disaster times.

We review characteristics of data traffic which we term stylized facts: burstiness, long-range dependence, heavy tails, bursty behavior determined by high-bandwidth users, and dependence determined by users without high transmission rates. We propose an infinite-source Poisson input model which supplies traffic in adjacent time slots. We study properties of the model as slot width decreases and traffic intensity increases. This model has the ability to account for many of the stylized facts.

We analyze the mean cost of the partial match queries in random two-dimensional quadtrees. The method is based on fragmentation theory. The convergence is guaranteed by a coupling argument of Markov chains, whereas the value of the limit is computed as the fixed point of an integral equation.

Spatial point processes are considered whose points are subjected to certain classes of affine transformations indexed by some variable, T. Under some hypotheses, for large T integrals with respect to such a point process behave approximately as if the process were Poisson. Under stronger hypotheses, the transformed process converges as a process to a Poisson process. The result gives the asymptotic distribution of certain density estimates.

Estimation methods for the directional measure of a stationary planar random set Z, based only on discretized realizations of Z, are discussed. Properties of the discretized set that can be derived by comparing neighbouring grid points are used. Larger grid configurations of more than two grid points are considered. It is shown that the probabilities of observing the various types of configurations can be expressed in terms of the first contact distribution function of Z (with a finite structuring element). An important prerequisite result concerning deterministic dilation areas is also established. The inference on the mean normal measure based on 2×2 configurations is discussed in detail.

A continuous-time Markov branching process is modified to allow some dependence of offspring generating function on population size. The model involves a given population size M, below which the offspring generating function is supercritical and above which it is subcritical. Immigration is allowed when the population size is 0. The process has a stationary measure, and an expression for its generating function is found. A limit theorem for the stationary measure as M tends to ∞ is then obtained.

In this paper the limit behaviour of α-recurrent Markov renewal processes and semi-Markov processes is studied by using the recent results on the concept of α-recurrence for Markov renewal processes. Section 1 contains the preliminary results, which are needed later in the paper. In Section 2 we consider the limit behaviour of the transition probabilities Pij(t) of an α-recurrent semi-Markov process. Section 4 deals with quasi-stationarity. Our results extend the results of Cheong (1968), (1970) and of Flaspohler and Holmes (1972) to the case in which the functions to be considered are directly Riemann integrable. We also try to correct the errors we have found in these papers. As a special case from our results we consider continuous-time Markov processes in Sections 3 and 5.

One expects, intuitively, that the total damage caused by an epidemic increases, in a certain sense, with the infection intensity exerted by the infectives during their lifelength. The original object of the present work is to make precise in which probabilistic terms such a statement does indeed hold true, when the spread of the disease is described by a collective Reed–Frost model and the global cost is represented by the final size and severity. Surprisingly, this problem leads us to introduce an order relation for -valued random variables, unusual in the literature, based on the descending factorial moments. Further applications of the ordering occur when comparing certain sampling procedures through the number of un-sampled individuals. In particular, it is used to reinforce slightly comparison results obtained earlier for two such samplings.

We consider random recursive fractals and prove fine results about their local behaviour. We show that for a class of random recursive fractals the usual multifractal spectrum is trivial in that all points have the same local dimension. However, by examining the local behaviour of the measure at typical points in the set, we establish the size of fine fluctuations in the measure. The results are proved using a large deviation principle for a class of general branching processes which extends the known large deviation estimates for the supercritical Galton-Watson process.

Restless bandits are a class of sequential resource allocation problems concerned with allocating one or more resources among several alternative processes where the evolution of the processes depends on the resources allocated to them. Such models capture the fundamental trade-offs between exploration and exploitation. In 1988, Whittle developed an index heuristic for restless bandit problems which has emerged as a popular solution approach because of its simplicity and strong empirical performance. The Whittle index heuristic is applicable if the model satisfies a technical condition known as indexability. In this paper, we present two general sufficient conditions for indexability and identify simpler-to-verify refinements of these conditions. We then revisit a previously proposed algorithm called the adaptive greedy algorithm which is known to compute the Whittle index for a sub-class of restless bandits. We show that a generalization of the adaptive greedy algorithm computes the Whittle index for all indexable restless bandits. We present an efficient implementation of this algorithm which can compute the Whittle index of a restless bandit with K states in $\mathcal{O}\!\left(K^3\right)$ computations. Finally, we present a detailed numerical study which affirms the strong performance of the Whittle index heuristic.

The multitype age-dependent branching process in varying environment is treated as a random stream (point process) of the birth and death events. We derive the point-process version of the Bellman–Harris equation, which provides us with a symbolic method of writing the equations for the arbitrary finite-dimensional distribution of the process. We also derive a new recurrence relation, the ‘principle of last generation'. This result is applied to obtain new moment equations for the process with immigration also. General considerations are illustrated by a simple cell kinetics model.

Draw-down time for a stochastic process is the first passage time of a draw-down level that depends on the previous maximum of the process. In this paper we study the draw-down-related Parisian ruin problem for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes. Intuitively, a draw-down Parisian ruin occurs when the surplus process has continuously stayed below the dynamic draw-down level for a fixed amount of time. We introduce the draw-down Parisian ruin time and solve the corresponding two-sided exit problems via excursion theory. We also find an expression for the potential measure for the process killed at the draw-down Parisian time. As applications, we obtain new results for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes with dividend barrier and with Parisian ruin.

The mean number of edges of a randomly chosen neighbouring cell of the typical cell in a planar stationary tessellation, under the condition that it has n edges, has been studied by physicists for more than 20 years. Experiments and simulation studies led empirically to the so-called Aboav's law. This law now plays a central role in Rivier's (1993) maximum entropy theory of statistical crystallography. Using Mecke's (1980) Palm method, an exact form of Aboav's law is derived. Results in higher-dimensional cases are also discussed.

In this paper we continue the examination of inventory control in which the inventory is modeled by a diffusion process and a long-term average cost criterion is used to make decisions. The class of such models under consideration has general drift and diffusion coefficients, and boundary points that are consistent with the notion that demand should tend to reduce the inventory level. The conditions on the cost functions are greatly relaxed from those in Helmes et al. (2017). Characterization of the cost of a general (s, S) policy as a function of two variables naturally leads to a nonlinear optimization problem over the ordering levels s and S. Existence of an optimizing pair (s*, S*) is established for these models under very weak conditions; nonexistence of an optimizing pair is also discussed. Using average expected occupation and ordering measures and weak convergence arguments, weak conditions are given for the optimality of the (s*, S*) ordering policy in the general class of admissible policies. The analysis involves an auxiliary function that is globally C2 and which, together with the infimal cost, solves a particular system of linear equations and inequalities related to but different from the long-term average Hamilton‒Jacobi‒Bellman equation. This approach provides an analytical solution to the problem rather than a solution involving intricate analysis of the stochastic processes. The range of applicability of these results is illustrated on a drifted Brownian motion inventory model, both unconstrained and reflected, and on a geometric Brownian motion inventory model under two different cost structures.

We study the variance-to-mean ratio of the distributions of parasites among hosts for some models of parasite infection, using the cohort approach. We consider a model with density dependence in parasite mortality, and two different formulations of disease induced host mortality. We show that the distributions of parasites, conditional on host survival, converge to quasi-stationary distributions as host age increases. When there is density dependence in parasite mortality, the limiting variance-to-mean ratio is less than 1 (an ‘under-dispersed’ distribution). In contrast, the two modes of disease induced host mortality show that either over- or underdispersed distributions may result.

We study the sample path properties of χ2 random surfaces, in particular in the neighbourhood of their extrema. We show that, as is the case for their Gaussian counterparts, χ2 surfaces at high levels follow the form of certain deterministic paraboloids, but that, unlike their Gaussian counterparts, at low levels their form is much more random. This has a number of interesting implications in the modelling of rough surfaces and the study of the ‘robustness' of Gaussian field models. The general approach of the paper is the study of extrema via the ‘Slepian model process', which, for χ2 fields, is tractable only at asymptotically high or low levels.

In the first part of this paper we consider a general stationary subcritical cluster model in ℝd. The associated pair-connectedness function can be defined in terms of two-point Palm probabilities of the underlying point process. Using Palm calculus and Fourier theory we solve the Ornstein–Zernike equation (OZE) under quite general distributional assumptions. In the second part of the paper we discuss the analytic and combinatorial properties of the OZE solution in the special case of a Poisson-driven random connection model.

Shanthikumar and Yao (1991) introduced some new stochastic order relations to compare the components of a bivariate random vector (X1, X2). As they point out in their paper, even if according to their hazard rate (or likelihood ratio) ordering, the marginal distributions may not be ordered accordingly. We introduce some new concepts where the marginal distributions preserve the corresponding stochastic orders. Also a relation between the bivariate scale model and the introduced bivariate hazard rate ordering is established.