The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics.

The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region.

INTRODUCTION

State elections were held concurrently in six states—Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan—in Malaysia on 12 August 2023. These six states were run by Pakatan Harapan (PH)—Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan—and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS)—Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu—governments. Although state government elections are usually held simultaneously with general elections, the leaders of these states decided not to hold their polls concurrently with the general elections which were held on 19 November 2022.

These six state elections were important politically for the following reasons. Firstly, this was the first serious electoral test for the unity government where seats would have to be allocated between PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) and these former bitter political rivals would have to campaign together for the first time in history.

Secondly, the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) government wanted to use these state elections to prove that they had an overwhelming level of support from among the Malay community and use these state election results to destabilize and possibly unseat the unity government.

In this article, the following questions will be asked and answered using granular election data from the state seats in which the DAP contested. Results from each polling “stream” or classroom where votes were cast and tabulated were used together with ethnic composition and age breakdowns for each polling “stream” to arrive at the analysis presented here. For example, support for the DAP was calculated for each polling stream in terms of the percentage of votes won and this was regressed against the share of Malay voters in each polling stream to arrive at estimates of the percentage of support for the DAP among Malay voters. For the analysis of voting patterns by age, polling streams with a majority of one ethnic group were selected and the voting patterns of the older polling streams were compared to the voting patterns of the younger polling streams. This could be done as voters are allocated polling streams according to their age.

The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics.

The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region.

INTRODUCTION

Malaysia is the second largest producer of palm oil after Indonesia. Together, these two countries account for about 85 per cent of total exports around the world. In 2022, Indonesia alone produced 51.33 million tonnes of output, while Malaysia produced 18.45 million tonnes. A shortage of sunflower oil supplies arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, and Indonesia's export restrictions of palm oil due to domestic shortages in cooking oil, lowered worldwide supplies and led to a rise in palm oil prices. A prolonged labour shortage caused by COVID-19 restrictions on the entry of foreign labour also lowered oil palm production in Malaysia. These factors added pressure on prices and increased Malaysia's oil palm revenues (export of palm oil and palm-based products) from RM108,515 million in 2021 to RM137,891 million in 2022, an increase of about 27 percent.

This paper first discusses the economic significance of the Malaysian oil palm industry within the context of the agriculture sector, as well its significance to individual states. The history of oil palm is then discussed. The focus then moves to smallholders who are dependent on oil palm for their livelihoods. The political economy of palm oil is then examined in light of new European Union regulations requiring deforestation-free sources along manufacturing supply chains. Sustainability certification is seen as a solution to these new obstacles to Malaysian exports, but there are myriad challenges involved. The Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification system has been gaining ground, but has yet to attain full international recognition and acceptance. An alternative international standard by the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) also has its issues, and this will also be examined in the paper. This will be followed by a case study on certification efforts in Sabah.

In 2022, agriculture contributed 6.6 per cent of total Malaysian GDP (Constant 2015 Prices), of which 2.4 per cent was from oil palm. Agriculture is among Malaysia's top three sectors, with services (57 per cent) and manufacturing (24 per cent) contributing the most to annual GDP. Oil palm alone contributed, on average, over 35 per cent of the total gross value of the agriculture sector from 2018 to 2022.