It is shown that the sample paths of Poisson shot noise with heavy-tailed semiexponential distributions satisfy a large deviation principle with a rate function that is insensitive to the shot shape. This demonstrates that, on the scale of large deviations, paths to rare events do not depend on the shot shape.

This paper presents a degree-two probability lower bound for the union of an arbitrary set of events in an arbitrary probability space. The bound is designed in terms of the first-degree Bonferroni summation and pairwise joint probabilities of events, which are represented as weights of edges in a Hamilton-type circuit in a connected graph. The proposed lower bound strengthens the Dawson–Sankoff lower bound in the same way that Hunter and Worsley's degree-two upper bound improves the degree-two Bonferroni-type optimal upper bound. It can be applied to statistical inference in time series and outlier diagnoses as well as the study of dose response curves.

The points of a non-stationary Poisson process with periodic intensity are independently shifted forward in time in such a way that the transformed process is stationary Poisson. The mean shift is shown to be minimal. The approach used is to consider an Mt/Gt/∞ queueing system where the arrival process is a non-stationary Poisson with periodic intensity function. A minimal service time distribution is constructed that yields a stationary Poisson departure process.

The theory of L2-spectral gaps for reversible Markov chains has been studied by many authors. In this paper we consider positive recurrent general state space Markov chains with stationary transition probabilities. Replacing the assumption of reversibility with a weaker assumption, we still obtain a simple necessary and sufficient condition for the spectral gap property of the associated Markov operator in terms of the isoperimetric constant. We show that this result can be applied to a large class of Markov chains, including those that are related to positive recurrent finite-range random walks on Z.

It is assumed that customers at a service facility have appointments at times 0,1,2, … for which they may be unpunctual by random amounts or may never arrive at all. A weak convergence theorem is proved for the process which counts the number of arrivals. This makes it possible to carry over the results of Iglehart and Whitt (1970a) to obtain heavy traffic functional limit theorems for queues with arrivals by appointment.

How should a team allocate its players to achieve the optimal balance between offence and defence? By posing a simple territorial game between two teams, insight into this question is gained. The saddlepoint solution to the game is derived.

In this paper we present a method for obtaining explicit results for some two-sided boundary problems involving sums of independent random variables with alternating distributions. We apply the method to finding the first passage time to either one of two finite barriers, and to some situations arising in queueing and dam theory. The results can be expressed in terms of a finite sum of simple repeated integrals (or sums) of known functions (cf. formulae (3.6)– (3.11)).

In a superfair red and black gambling house where the player must bet at least 2 units at each stage, a gambler wishes to maximize the probability of reaching a goal integer N before reaching zero. For win probability p > 1/2, when N is even, an optimal strategy is to bet 3 units when you have 3 units or N − 3 units and to bet 2 units otherwise. When N is odd, there are two strategies which are optimal depending on the value of the win probability p. When p is smaller than a certain value, p*, the above strategy is optimal, and when p is larger than this value, the timid strategy is optimal.

Examining possibilities for the coexistence of two competing populations is a classic problem which dates back to the earliest ‘predator-prey’ models. In this paper we study this problem in the context of a model introduced in Björnberg et al. (2012) for the spread of a virus infection in a population of healthy cells. The infected cells may be seen as a population of ‘predators’ and the healthy cells as a population of ‘prey’. We show that, depending on the parameters defining the model, there may or may not be coexistence of the two populations, and we give precise criteria for this.

A summation formula is given for computing the spectrum of intervals of a geometric branching Poisson process from the cumulant generating function of the associated counting process.

Consider random vectors formed by a finite number of independent groups of independent and identically distributed random variables, where those of the last group are stochastically smaller than those of the other groups. Conditions are given such that certain functions, defined as suitable means of supermodular functions of the random variables of the vectors, are supermodular or increasing directionally convex. Comparisons based on the increasing convex order of supermodular functions of such random vectors are also investigated. Applications of the above results are then provided in risk theory, queueing theory, and reliability theory, with reference to (i) net stop-loss reinsurance premiums of portfolios from different groups of insureds, (ii) closed cyclic multiclass Gordon-Newell queueing networks, and (iii) reliability of series systems formed by units selected from different batches.

This paper is concerned with the multidimensional Markov chain {X(n)} = {X(x, n)}, considered by Borovkov [1], [2], [3], with the form X(n + 1) = ?(n) + ?(?(n), n), where the distribution of depends only on x. Sufficient conditions on moments of |?(x)| are established for the Markov chain {X(n)} to have rate of convergence results (i.e. geometric ergodicity or sub-geometric rates for a variety of rate functions).

Birth–death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. We derive a large-deviation principle under an assumption that the rate of jump down (death) grows asymptotically linearly with the population size, while the rate of jump up (birth) grows sublinearly. We establish a large-deviation principle under various forms of scaling of the underlying process and the corresponding normalization of the logarithm of the large-deviation probabilities. The results show interesting features of dependence of the rate functional upon the parameters of the process and the forms of scaling and normalization.

This note corrects an error in the definition of the rate function in Jacquier, Pakkanen, and Stone (2018) and slightly simplifies some proofs.

We introduce a bivariate tempered space-fractional Poisson process (BTSFPP) by time-changing the bivariate Poisson process with an independent tempered $\alpha$-stable subordinator. We study its distributional properties and its connection to differential equations. The Lévy measure for the BTSFPP is also derived. A bivariate competing risks and shock model based on the BTSFPP for predicting the failure times of items that undergo two random shocks is also explored. The system is supposed to break when the sum of two types of shock reaches a certain random threshold. Various results related to reliability, such as reliability function, hazard rates, failure density, and the probability that failure occurs due to a certain type of shock, are studied. We show that for a general Lévy subordinator, the failure time of the system is exponentially distributed with mean depending on the Laplace exponent of the Lévy subordinator when the threshold has a geometric distribution. Some special cases and several typical examples are also demonstrated.

Results of a previous paper (Liebetrau (1977a)) are extended to higher dimensions. An estimator V∗(t1, t2) of the variance function V(t1, t2) of a two-dimensional process is defined, and its first- and second-moment structure is given assuming the process to be Poisson. Members of a class of estimators of the form where and for 0 < α i < 1, are shown to converge weakly to a non-stationary Gaussian process. Similar results hold when the t′i are taken to be constants, when V is replaced by a suitable estimator and when the dimensionality of the underlying Poisson process is greater than two.

We prove Lévy's theorem concerning positiveness of transition probabilities of Markov processes when the state space is countable and an invariant probability distribution exists. Our approach relies on the representation of transition probabilities in terms of the directed circuits that occur along the sample paths.