The asymptotic behaviour of many locally branching epidemic models can, at least to first order, be deduced from the limit theory of two branching processes. The first is Whittle's (1955) branching approximation to the early stages of the epidemic, the phase in which approximately exponential growth takes place. The second is the susceptibility approximation; the backward branching process that approximates the history of the contacts that would lead to an individual becoming infected. The simplest coupling arguments for demonstrating the closeness of these branching process approximations do not keep the processes identical for quite long enough. Thus, arguments showing that the differences are unimportant are also needed. In this paper we show that, for some models, couplings can be constructed that are sufficiently accurate for this extra step to be dispensed with.

The quadratic mean of the deviation between the probability content and the interior point proportion of a random convex hull in is investigated. We obtain, in particular, an explicit and distribution-independent bound.

The information flow in discrete Markov systems provides a method for determining that such a system is ergodic. Estimates are obtained for the information flow in some classes of Markov systems and using these estimates criteria for the ergodicity of the systems are established.

Generating functions for the absorption probabilities for a random walk on the integers {0,1, …, b}, where 0 is an absorbing barrier and b a semi-reflecting barrier have been obtained by Weesakul [1] and Neuts [2]. However, determination of explicit expressions for the absorption probabilities from the generating functions is generally quite difficult. In this note, two cases where this is possible are presented.

In this paper we present a method for obtaining explicit results for some two-sided boundary problems involving sums of independent random variables with alternating distributions. We apply the method to finding the first passage time to either one of two finite barriers, and to some situations arising in queueing and dam theory. The results can be expressed in terms of a finite sum of simple repeated integrals (or sums) of known functions (cf. formulae (3.6)– (3.11)).

How should a team allocate its players to achieve the optimal balance between offence and defence? By posing a simple territorial game between two teams, insight into this question is gained. The saddlepoint solution to the game is derived.

In the multi-armed bandit problem, the decision-maker must choose each period a single project to work on. From the chosen project she receives an immediate reward that depends on the current state of the project. Next period the chosen project makes a stochastic transition to a new state, but projects that are not chosen remain in the same state. What happens in a two-armed bandit context if projects not chosen do not remain in the same state? We derive two sufficient conditions for the optimal policy to be myopic: either the transition function for chosen projects has in a certain sense uniformly stronger stochastic dominance than the transition function for unchosen projects, or both transition processes are normal martingales, the variance of which is independent of the history of process choices.

In this paper we consider a new generalized finite mixture model formed by dependent and identically distributed (d.i.d.) components. We then establish results for the comparisons of lifetimes of two such generalized finite mixture models in two different cases: (i) when the two mixture models are formed from two random vectors $\textbf{X}$ and $\textbf{Y}$ but with the same weights, and (ii) when the two mixture models are formed with the same random vectors but with different weights. Because the lifetimes of k-out-of-n systems and coherent systems are special cases of the mixture model considered, we used the established results to compare the lifetimes of k-out-of-n systems and coherent systems with respect to the reversed hazard rate and hazard rate orderings.

A discrete time, scalar, pursuit-evasion game is presented in which an evader, moving according to a stationary stochastic process, is continually being followed by a pursuer. Both players have perfect observations of the evader's positions, but the observations of the pursuer are subject to a time lag. It is assumed that the strategy of the evader can be represented as an infinite moving average, and that he is restricted by a velocity constraint. The pursuer is limited to strategies linear in his information, and the payoff is taken to be the mean-square distance between pursuer and evader. Under these conditions it is shown that the game does not have a value, and subsequently the lower and upper values and corresponding strategies are found.

The change with respect to time of the information in a population is studied, when the population is classified according to genetic type. The cases considered are (i) an infinite population classified at two loci, (ii) a large finite population classified at one locus, subject to sampling fluctuations and (iii) the same, subject to the effect of mutation.

The paper studies a single-server two-queue priority system with changeover times and switching threshold. The server serves queue 1 exhaustively and does not remain at an empty queue if the other one is non-empty. It immediately switches from queue 2 to queue 1 when the length of the latter reaches some level M. Whenever service is changed from one queue to the other a changeover time is required. Arrivals are Poisson, service times and changeover times are independent and exponentially distributed. Using an analytic method we obtain the steady-state joint probability generating function of the lengths of the two queues. By means of this probability generating function some performance measures of the system such as mean length of queue and mean delay can be calculated.

We present an asymptotically optimal importance sampling for Monte Carlo simulation of the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals which plays a prominent role in many disciplines. To this end we utilize the theory of large deviations to reduce finding an asymptotically optimal importance sampling measure to solving a calculus of variations problem. Closed-form solutions are obtained. In addition we also present a path to the test of regularity of optimal drift which is an issue in implementing the proposed method. The performance analysis of the method is provided through the Dothan bond pricing model.

A basic process of simple queueing theory is S(t), an integer valued stochastic process which represents the “number of clients present, including the one in service” at epoch t. The queueing context physically limits S(t) to non-negative values, but if this impenetrable barrier is removed thereby permitting S(t) to assume negative values as well, we have a “randomized random walk” in which S(t) represents the position at time t of a mythical particle which moves on the x-axis according to the rules of the walk. The nomenclature “randomized random walk” is due to Feller (1966a). S(t) changes by unit positive or negative amounts, and our basic assumption is that the time intervals τ/σ separating successive positive/negative steps are i.i.d. with continuous d.f.'s. A(t)/B(t) (A(0)/B(0) = 0) possessing p.d.f.'s. a(t)/b(t): τ and σ are further assumed to be statistically independent. When A(t) = 1 – e–λt and B(t) = 1 – e–μt, we have a generalization of the M/M/1 queueing process which we shall denote by M/M. The walk generated by A(t) = 1 – e–λt and B(t) arbitrary may similarly be denoted by M/G. For G/M we clearly mean A(t) arbitrary and B(t) = 1 – e–μt. M/M has received extensive treatment elsewhere (cf. Feller (1966a), (1966b); Takács (1967); Gibson (1968); Conolly (1971)), and will not be considered here. Our interest centers on certain aspects of M/G and G/M, but since each is the dual of the other (loosely, G/M is M/G “upside down”) it is sufficient to restrict attention to one of them, as convenient; pointing out, where necessary, the interpretation in terms of the other.

In this paper the t-step maintainable regions Mt are examined in a three-graded system under the following conditions: the total size of the system remains constant during each intermediate step, demotions do not occur and recruitment control is considered.

A counterexample, showing that the monotonicity property Mt ⊆ Mt+1 does not exist in general, refutes the conjecture of Davies [3].

We present, discuss and prove an apparently unfamiliar result in the convergence of probability measures.

We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin after reinsurance is also regularly varying in terms of the initial capital, and derive an explicit asymptotic expression for the latter. We establish this result by leveraging recent developments on sample-path large deviations for heavy tails. Our results allow, on the asymptotic level, for an explicit comparison between two well-known large-claim reinsurance contracts, namely LCR and ECOMOR. Finally, we assess the accuracy of the resulting approximations using state-of-the-art rare event simulation techniques.

Vinogradov (1973) used the Laplace transform to characterize the IFR class of life distributions and later Block and Savits (1980) extended the characterization to the main reliability classes. Here we use the same transform again to characterize the continuous time renewal equation and some properties of its solution.

In this paper we analyze players' long-run behavior in evolutionary coordination games with imperfect monitoring in a large population. Players can observe signals corresponding to other players' unseen actions and use the proposed simple or maximum likelihood estimation algorithm to extract information from the signals. In the simple learning process we find conditions for the risk-dominant and the non-risk-dominant equilibria to emerge alone in the long run. Furthermore, we find that the two equilibria can coexist in the long run. In contrast, the coexistence of the two equilibria is the only limit distribution under the maximum likelihood estimation learning algorithm. We also analyze the long-run equilibria of other 2x2 symmetric games under imperfect monitoring.

Extending the cascade model for food webs, we introduce a cyclic cascade model which is a random generation model of cyclic dominance relations. Put n species as n points Q1,Q2,…, Qn on a circle. If the counterclockwise way from Qi to Qj on the circle is shorter than the clockwise way, we say Qi dominates Qj. Consider a tournament whose dominance relations are generated from the points on a circle by this rule. We show that when we take n mutually independently distributed points on the circle, the probability of getting a regular tournament of order 2r+1 as the largest regular tournament is equal to (n/(2r+1))/2n-1. This probability distribution is for the number of existing species after a sufficiently long period, assuming a Lotka-Volterra cyclic cascade model.