In this paper we analyze a simple spectral method (EIG1) for the problem of matrix alignment, consisting in aligning their leading eigenvectors: given two matrices A and B, we compute two corresponding leading eigenvectors $v_1$ and $v'_{\!\!1}$ . The algorithm returns the permutation $\hat{\pi}$ such that the rank of coordinate $\hat{\pi}(i)$ in $v_1$ and that of coordinate i in $v'_{\!\!1}$ (up to the sign of $v'_{\!\!1}$ ) are the same.

We consider a model of weighted graphs where the adjacency matrix A belongs to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of size $N \times N$ , and B is a noisy version of A where all nodes have been relabeled according to some planted permutation $\pi$ ; that is, $B= \Pi^T (A+\sigma H) \Pi $ , where $\Pi$ is the permutation matrix associated with $\pi$ and H is an independent copy of A. We show the following zero–one law: with high probability, under the condition $\sigma N^{7/6+\epsilon} \to 0$ for some $\epsilon>0$ , EIG1 recovers all but a vanishing part of the underlying permutation $\pi$ , whereas if $\sigma N^{7/6-\epsilon} \to \infty$ , this method cannot recover more than o(N) correct matches.

This result gives an understanding of the simplest and fastest spectral method for matrix alignment (or complete weighted graph alignment), and involves proof methods and techniques which could be of independent interest.

We establish a pathwise large deviation principle for affine stochastic volatility models introduced by Keller-Ressel (2011), and present an application to variance reduction for Monte Carlo computation of prices of path-dependent options in these models, extending the method developed by Genin and Tankov (2020) for exponential Lévy models. To this end, we apply an exponentially affine change of measure and use Varadhan’s lemma, in the fashion of Guasoni and Robertson (2008) and Robertson (2010), to approximate the problem of finding the measure that minimizes the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator. We test the method on the Heston model with and without jumps to demonstrate its numerical efficiency.

Motivated by the gene tree/species tree problem from statistical phylogenetics, we extend the class of Markov branching trees to a parametric family of distributions on fragmentation trees that satisfies a generalized Markov branching property. The main theorems establish important statistical properties of this model, specifically necessary and sufficient conditions under which a family of trees can be constructed consistently as sample size grows. We also consider the question of attaching random edge lengths to these trees.

A general model for the actuarial risk-reserve process as a superposition of compound delayed-renewal processes is introduced and related to previous models which have been used in collective risk theory. It is observed that non-stationarity of the portfolio ‘age-structure' within this model can have a significant impact upon probabilities of ruin. When the portfolio size is constant and the policy age-distribution is stationary, the moderate- and large-deviation probabilities of ruin are bounded and calculated using the strong approximation results of Csörg et al. (1987a, b) and a large-deviation theorem of Groeneboom et al. (1979). One consequence is that for non-Poisson claim-arrivals, the large-deviation probabilities of ruin are noticeably affected by the decision to model many parallel policy lines in place of one line with correspondingly faster claim-arrivals.

In a cellular radio system a limited number of channels are available and neighbouring cells may not be allocated the same channel simultaneously because of the possibility of interference. Under heavy traffic, therefore, the average rate of losing calls may be reduced if certain calls are rejected as a matter of policy because of the potential inference they may cause. A fixed channel assignment policy is one in which each cell is allocated a fixed set of channels, this set typically being made smaller for cells likely to cause most interference. Sufficient conditions are found for the optimality of fixed channel assignment policies for a variety of layouts, and optimal and ‘good' policies are found in a number of other cases.

Let Un be the time between the nth and (n + 1)th arrivals to a single-server queuing system, and Vn the nth arrival's service time. There are quite a few models in which {Un, Vn, n ≥ 1} is a regenerative sequence. In this paper, some light and heavy traffic limit theorems are proved solely under this assumption; some of the light traffic results, and all the heavy traffic results, are new for two such models treated earlier by the author; and all the results are new for the semi-Markov queuing model.

In the last three sections, the results are applied to a single-server queue whose input is the output of a G/G/1 queue functioning in light traffic.

In this paper we consider the filtering of partially observed multidimensional diffusion processes that are observed regularly at discrete times. This is a challenging problem which requires the use of advanced numerical schemes based upon time-discretization of the diffusion process and then the application of particle filters. Perhaps the state-of-the-art method for moderate-dimensional problems is the multilevel particle filter of Jasra et al. (SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 55 (2017), 3068–3096). This is a method that combines multilevel Monte Carlo and particle filters. The approach in that article is based intrinsically upon an Euler discretization method. We develop a new particle filter based upon the antithetic truncated Milstein scheme of Giles and Szpruch (Ann. Appl. Prob. 24 (2014), 1585–1620). We show empirically for a class of diffusion problems that, for $\epsilon>0$ given, the cost to produce a mean squared error (MSE) of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^2)$ in the estimation of the filter is $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2}\log(\epsilon)^2)$. In the case of multidimensional diffusions with non-constant diffusion coefficient, the method of Jasra et al. (2017) requires a cost of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2.5})$ to achieve the same MSE.

The Voronoi tessellation generated by a Gibbs point process is considered. Using the algebraic formalism of polymer expansion, the limit theorem and the large deviation principle for the number of Voronoi vertices are proved.

A stack is a structural unit in an RNA structure that is formed by pairs of hydrogen bonded nucleotides. Paired nucleotides are scored according to their ability to hydrogen bond. We consider stack/hairpin-loop structures for a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with values in a finite alphabet, and we show how to obtain an asymptotic Poisson distribution of the number of stack/hairpin-loop structures with a score exceeding a high threshold, given that we count in a proper, declumped way. From this result we obtain an asymptotic Gumbel distribution of the maximal stack score. We also provide examples focusing on the computation of constants that enter in the asymptotic distributions. Finally, we discuss the close relation to existing results for local alignment.

In this paper a central limit theorem is proved for wave-functionals defined as the sums of wave amplitudes observed in sample paths of stationary continuously differentiable Gaussian processes. Examples illustrating this theory are given.

We consider generalisations of two classical stochastic scheduling models, namely the discounted branching bandit and the discounted multi-armed bandit, to the case where the collection of machines available for processing is itself a stochastic process. Under rather mild conditions on the machine availability process we obtain performance guarantees for a range of controls based on Gittins indices. Various forms of asymptotic optimality are established for index-based limit policies as the discount rate approaches 0.

We describe the processes obtained by time reversal of a class of stationary jump diffusion processes that model the dynamics of genetic variation in populations subject to repeated bottlenecks. Assuming that only one lineage survives each bottleneck, the forward process is a diffusion on [0,1] that jumps to the boundary before diffusing back into the interior. We show that the behavior of the time-reversed process depends on whether the boundaries are accessible to the diffusive motion of the forward process. If a boundary point is inaccessible to the forward diffusion then time reversal leads to a jump diffusion that jumps immediately into the interior whenever it arrives at that point. If, instead, a boundary point is accessible then the jumps off of that point are governed by a weighted local time of the time-reversed process.

We show that load-sharing models (a very special class of multivariate probability models for nonnegative random variables) can be used to obtain basic results about a multivariate extension of stochastic precedence and related paradoxes. Such results can be applied in several different fields. In particular, applications of them can be developed in the context of paradoxes which arise in voting theory. Also, an application to the notion of probability signature may be of interest, in the field of systems reliability.

First it is shown that any generalized inverse of the infinitesimal generator of an irreducible Markov chain can be used to compute the exact stationary distribution and all the expected first-passage times of the chain. In the special case of a single-server queue this allows all computations to be done with upper-triangular matrices.

Next it is shown that the effect of a perturbation of the infinitesimal generator on the stationary distribution and expected first-passage times can also be computed using generalized inverses. These results extend and generalize Schweitzer's [9] original work using fundamental matrices. It is then shown that any perturbation can be broken up into a series of perturbations each involving a single state.