We study failure rate monotonicity and generalised convex transform stochastic ordering properties of random variables, with an emphasis on applications. We are especially interested in the effect of a tail-weight iteration procedure to define distributions, which is equivalent to the characterisation of moments of the residual lifetime at a given instant. For the monotonicity properties, we are mainly concerned with hereditary properties with respect to the iteration procedure providing counterexamples showing either that the hereditary property does not hold or that inverse implications are not true. For the stochastic ordering, we introduce a new criterion, based on the analysis of the sign variation of a suitable function. This criterion is then applied to prove ageing properties of parallel systems formed with components that have exponentially distributed lifetimes.

It has been conjectured that a certain transformation of gene frequency space due to Fisher and Bhattacharyya will map the random genetic drift process, or its diffusion approximation, into one with radial symmetry. This paper proves rigorously that the Fisher–Bhattacharyya mapping does not do this. This implies that the initial state of an evolving ensemble can only be unbiasedly estimated from the means of a sample if we weight by the proper divergence times. If the ensemble is known not to have begun at the centroid of frequency space, the estimate of the initial state vector is not simply the arithmetic average, as symmetry analysis of the Christoffel velocity field shows.

The rich-get-richer rule reinforces actions that have been frequently chosen in the past. What happens to the evolution of individuals’ inclinations to choose an action when agents interact? Interaction tends to homogenize, while each individual dynamics tends to reinforce its own position. Interacting stochastic systems of reinforced processes have recently been considered in many papers, in which the asymptotic behavior is proven to exhibit almost sure synchronization. In this paper we consider models where, even if interaction among agents is present, absence of synchronization may happen because of the choice of an individual nonlinear reinforcement. We show how these systems can naturally be considered as models for coordination games or technological or opinion dynamics.

In this paper we investigate first passage percolation on an inhomogeneous random graph model introduced by Bollobás et al. (2007). Each vertex in the graph has a type from a type space, and edge probabilities are independent, but depend on the types of the end vertices. Each edge is given an independent exponential weight. We determine the distribution of the weight of the shortest path between uniformly chosen vertices in the giant component and show that the hopcount, i.e. the number of edges on this minimal-weight path, properly normalized, follows a central limit theorem. We handle the cases where the average number of neighbors λ̃n of a vertex tends to a finite λ̃ in full generality and consider λ̃ = ∞ under mild assumptions. This paper is a generalization of the paper of Bhamidi et al. (2011), where first passage percolation is explored on the Erdős-Rényi graphs.

We study nonparametric estimation problems for discrete-time stochastic networks of GeomX/G/∞ queues. We assume that we are only able to observe the external arrival and external departure processes at the nodes over a stretch of time. Based on such incomplete information of the system, we aim to construct estimators for the unknown general service time distributions at the nodes without imposing any parametric condition. We propose two different estimation approaches. The first approach is based on the construction of a so-called sequence of differences, and a crucial relation between the expected number of external departures at a node and specific sojourn time distributions in the network. The second approach directly utilizes the structure of the cross-covariance functions between external arrival and departure processes at the nodes. Both methods lead to deconvolution problems which we solve explicitly. A detailed simulation study illustrates the numerical performances of our estimators and shows their advantages and disadvantages.

We prove that for a class of anisotropic long-range percolation models for which connection probabilities p<x,z> satisfy some regularity properties, and such that ∑z∈Z2p<x,z> = ∞, percolation still will occur even if we truncate all edges whose length exceeds some constant (which in this case depends on the family of connectivity probabilities {p<x,z>). We also present an example of dependent long-range percolation model for which this is not true.

For any strictly positive martingale S = eX for which X has a characteristic function, we provide an expansion for the implied volatility. This expansion is explicit in the sense that it involves no integrals, but only polynomials in the log-strike. We illustrate the versatility of our expansion by computing the approximate implied volatility smile in three well-known martingale models: one finite activity exponential Lévy model, Merton (1976), one infinite activity exponential Lévy model (variance gamma), and one stochastic volatility model, Heston (1993). Finally, we illustrate how our expansion can be used to perform a model-free calibration of the empirically observed implied volatility surface.

We consider stationary and ergodic tessellations X = Ξnn≥1 in Rd, where X is observed in a bounded and convex sampling window Wp ⊂ Rd. It is assumed that the cells Ξn of X possess random inner structures, examples of which include point patterns, fibre systems, and tessellations. These inner cell structures are generated, both independently of each other and independently of the tessellation X, by generic stationary random sets that are related to a stationary random vector measure J0 acting on Rd. In particular, we study the asymptotic behaviour of a multivariate random functional, which is determined both by X and by the individual cell structures contained in Wp, as Wp ↑ Rd. It turns out that this functional provides an unbiased estimator for the intensity vector associated with J0. Furthermore, under natural restrictions, strong laws of large numbers and a multivariate central limit theorem of the normalized functional are proven. Finally, we discuss in detail some numerical examples and applications, for which the inner structures of the cells of X are induced by iterated Poisson-type tessellations.

Suppose that, under the action of gravity, liquid drains through the unit d-cube via a minimal-length network of channels constrained to pass through random sites and to flow with nonnegative component in one of the canonical orthogonal basis directions of Rd, d ≥ 2. The resulting network is a version of the so-called minimal directed spanning tree. We give laws of large numbers and convergence in distribution results on the large-sample asymptotic behaviour of the total power-weighted edge length of the network on uniform random points in (0, 1)d. The distributional results exhibit a weight-dependent phase transition between Gaussian and boundary-effect-derived distributions. These boundary contributions are characterized in terms of limits of the so-called on-line nearest-neighbour graph, a natural model of spatial network evolution, for which we also present some new results. Also, we give a convergence in distribution result for the length of the longest edge in the drainage network; when d = 2, the limit is expressed in terms of Dickman-type variables.

We consider a stochastic control model for a queueing system driven by a two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter 0 < H < 1. In particular, when H > ½, this model serves to approximate a controlled two-station tandem queueing model with heavy-tailed ON/OFF sources in heavy traffic. We establish the weak convergence results for the distribution of the state process and construct an explicit stationary state process associated with given controls. Based on suitable coupling arguments, we show that each state process couples with its stationary counterpart and we use it to represent the long-run average cost functional in terms of the stationary process. Finally, we establish the existence result of an optimal control, which turns out to be independent of the initial data.

We consider the statistical estimation problem of potential functions of Gibbs models on the plane lattice. We assume that the area on which a random point pattern is observed is sufficiently large and take an asymptotic point of view. The main result is to show the locally asymptotic normality of the Gibbs model under certain conditions. From this result we can show the optimality of the maximum likelihood estimator employing known results about locally asymptotic normal families, though a practical computation of the maximum likelihood estimator presents difficulties. An estimation procedure based on the method of moments is also proposed.

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.

In this paper, bounded variation control of one-dimensional diffusion processes is considered. We assume that the agent is allowed to control the diffusion only at the jump times of an observable, independent Poisson process. The agent's objective is to maximize the expected present value of the cumulative payoff generated by the controlled diffusion over its lifetime. We propose a relatively weak set of assumptions on the underlying diffusion and the instantaneous payoff structure, under which we solve the problem in closed form. Moreover, we illustrate the main results with an explicit example.

The principal results of this paper concern the asymptotic behavior of the number of arcs in the optimal routes of first-passage percolation processes on the square lattice. Assuming that the underlying distribution has an atom at zero less than λ–1, where λ is the connectivity constant, Lp and (in some cases) almost sure convergence theorems are proved for the normalized route length processes. The proofs involve the extension of much of the existing theory of first-passage percolation to the case where negative time coordinates are permitted.

We identify a close relation between stable distributions and the limiting homomorphisms central to the theory of regular variation. In so doing some simplifications are achieved in the direct analysis of these laws in Pitman and Pitman (2016); stable distributions are themselves linked to homomorphy.

We consider d-dimensional stochastic processes which take values in (R+)d These processes generalize Galton-Watson branching processes, but the main assumption of branching processes, independence between particles, is dropped. Instead, we assume for some

Here τ:(R+)d→R +, |x| = σ1d |x(i)|, A {x ∈(R+)d: |x| 1} and T: A→A. Under various assumptions on the maps τ and T it is shown that with probability one there exists a ρ > 1, a fixed point p ∈ A of T and a random variable w such that limn→∞Zn|ρnwp. This result is a generalization of the main limit theorem for supercritical branching processes; note, however, that in the present situation both ρ and ρ are random as well. The results are applied to a population genetical model for zygotic selection without mutation at one locus.

In this paper we study a discrete-time optimal switching problem on a finite horizon. The underlying model has a running reward, terminal reward, and signed (positive and negative) switching costs. Using optimal stopping theory for discrete-parameter stochastic processes, we extend a well-known explicit dynamic programming method for computing the value function and the optimal strategy to the case of signed switching costs.