We design an experiment to study the implications of introducing position uncertainty in a social dilemma where eight players decide to contribute to a public good sequentially. Contributions are significantly higher when players make sequential decisions to contribute or not, are uncertain about their position in the sequence, and observe a sample of their predecessors’ choices compared to the simultaneous-move game. Yet, contribution rates remain invariant to the number of agents sampled. Consequently, contributions don’t unravel even with position certainty, and there is no incremental benefit of introducing position uncertainty, contrary to the theoretical prediction. Furthermore, controlling for the sum of contributions observed, individuals contribute less the later in the sequence they are.

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium approach that takes into account the macroeconomic implications of the green transition and its consequences for public finances. It shows that when the government relies too heavily on expenditure-based measures, it threatens the sustainability of public debt, by increasing the probability of sovereign default, leading to higher interest rates on government bonds. This higher public default risk has potentially significant repercussions on investment financing conditions for the private sector, and increases the cost of the transition to a net-zero economy. On the other hand, carbon pricing policies make the transition more viable for public finances, at the expenses of similarly high economic costs, while remaining effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The welfare-maximizing optimal policy mix results in a balanced approach, with the public sector’s contribution to the total mitigation effort increasing gradually, ranging from 25% to 40% between 2030 and 2050.

We investigate the properties of the linear two-way fixed effects (FE) estimator for panel data when the underlying data generating process (DGP) does not have a linear parametric structure. The FE estimator is consistent for some pseudo-true value and we characterize the corresponding asymptotic distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is determined by the degree of model misspecification, and that the asymptotic distribution can be non-normal. We propose a novel autoregressive double adaptive wild (AdaWild) bootstrap procedure applicable for a large class of DGPs. Monte Carlo simulations show that it performs well for panels of small and moderate dimensions. We use data from U.S. manufacturing industries to illustrate the benefits of our procedure.

Emerging labour crises highlight the detrimental impact of overtime work cultures, such as the 996 working system, which violates the Labour Law of China and mirrors modern labour slavery. Simultaneously, despite China’s Three-Children Policy aimed at increasing national labour force growth, the national fertility rate has remained persistently low over the past decade. Workers require family time and financial security to plan for having children. Changes in family structures and fertility expectations, shaped by social pressures and the government’s advocacy, heavily impact labourers’ household financial behaviour. In response to a high-pressure overwork environment, labourers adopt conservative financial strategies to safeguard their families’ well-being and birth plans. This cautious approach often involves avoiding digital financial tools associated with riskier investments. This study examines the intersection of labour overwork, fertility, and the adoption of digital finance in shaping Chinese families’ investments. Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study analyses the panel data from 7,582 family observations in China between 2018 and 2020. The findings reveal that although digital finance positively influences household financial investment, the 996 work system acts as a moderator to shape this relationship negatively. Moreover, fertility in households further weakens this relationship. These findings provide critical theoretical insights into the dynamics of labour history by portraying a modern slavery picture of overworked labourers and their families in China: too exhausted and financially strained to have babies. It offers practical insights for policymakers aiming to improve labour policies, fertility rates, and household financial resilience.

Carbon labelling has been proposed as a strategy to encourage cafeteria diners to reduce meat consumption, choose lower carbon-emitting meals and contribute towards global climate change targets. However, field-experimental evidence for label effectiveness is largely limited to trials in universities with student samples. This study evaluated whether the beneficial effects of carbon labelling observed in universities could be replicated in the wider workplace population through a natural field experiment in four call-centre cafeterias in Northern England. Baseline vegetarian uptake in the call-centre cafeterias was significantly lower than in previous university trials (7% vs 15–66%), potentially reflecting a more meat-attached population. The introduction of labels resulted in a 1.5 percentage-point shift from meat to vegetarian meals compared to 1.7–4.6 percentage-point shifts observed in university trials. The increase was almost entirely driven by higher vegetarian sales during the first week of the intervention, with little to no effect observed in subsequent weeks. No statistically significant changes were found in average cafeteria emissions. The findings suggest that carbon labels are not a panacea, and where worksite cafeterias have ambitious emissions targets, labels will need to be implemented alongside other measures.

We contribute to the recent debate on the instability of the slope of the Phillips curve by offering insights from a flexible time-varying instrumental variable (IV) approach robust to weak instruments. Our robust approach focuses directly on the Phillips curve and allows general forms of instability, in contrast to current approaches based either on structural models with time-varying parameters or IV estimates in ad-hoc sub-samples. We find evidence of a weakening of the slope of the Phillips curve starting around 1980. We also offer novel insights on the Phillips curve during the recent pandemic: The flattening has reverted and the Phillips curve is back.

This study examines sea loans in the Portuguese Empire (1600–1800). Structured as contingent contracts, this kind of credit served as a risk-sharing agreement for financing transoceanic trade routes. Using notarial protocols and court records, the study examines how maritime regulations, international political relations, and information problems influenced the pricing of loan agreements. The study demonstrates that the introduction of the convoy system, which distinguished Portugal–Brazilian connections, coincided with a downward trend in sea loan rates, which converged with those of safer short-term lending instruments. In contrast, periods of war and free navigation increased uncertainty, making maritime insurance and sea loans complementary instruments for risk management.

Social relationships provide opportunities to exchange and obtain health advice. Not only close confidants may be perceived as sources of health advice, but also acquaintances met in places outside a closed circle of family and friends, e.g., in voluntary organizations. This study is the first to analyze the structure of complete health advice networks in three voluntary organizations and compare them with more commonly studied close relationships. To this end, we collected data on multiple networks and health outcomes among 143 middle-aged and older adults (mean age = 53.9 years) in three carnival clubs in Germany. Our analyses demonstrate that perceived health advice and close relationships overlap only by 34%. Moreover, recent advances in exponential random graph models (ERGMs) allow us to illustrate that the network structure of perceived health advice differs starkly from that of close relationships. For instance, we found that advice networks exhibited lower transitivity and greater segregation by gender and age in comparison to networks of close relationships. We also found that actors with poor physical health perceive less individuals as health advisors than those with good physical health. Our findings suggest that community settings, such as voluntary associations, provide a unique platform for exchanging health advice and information among both close and distant network members.

Will rising temperatures from climate change affect labour markets? This paper examines the impact of temperature on hours worked, using panel data from Peru covering the period from 2007 to 2015. We combine information on hours worked from household surveys with weather reanalysis data. Our findings show that high temperatures reduce hours worked, with the effect concentrated in informal jobs rather than in weather-exposed industries. These results suggest that labour market segmentation may shape how climate change affects labour outcomes in developing countries.

While previous scientific literature has found evidence that warming winters result in a loss of crop yields, recent studies suggest that temperature alone may not be the sole factor in determining yields. In this study, we investigate multiple climatic factors (freezing degree days (FDD) and snow cover fraction) to evaluate the heterogeneous impact of snowpack insulation on winter wheat yields in China. We find that a unit increase in FDD causes a loss of 2.37 kg/hectare in winter wheat yields. Furthermore, our results show that snowpack insulation has a statistically significant negative effect on winter wheat yields at lower and middle quantiles, but a statistically significant positive effect at higher quantiles of the winter wheat yields distribution, suggesting that snowpack insulation is important in maintaining higher winter wheat yields.

We introduce a data-driven approach to use language to reconstruct history, and apply the methodology to estimate the geographic origins of religious spread. To validate the approach, we use language data to estimate origins of Islam and Buddhism to within 500km of their true (and uncontested) origins. We then apply the methodology to the more complex (and contested) cases of Christianity, Judaism, and Hinduism. We show that language-based estimates, in these cases, are significantly more aligned with the origin of scripture than with the origin of the religion.