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The cold, hard truth: evidence from heterogeneous snowpack insulation effect on winter wheat yields in China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2025

Zhenyu Yao Open the ORCID record for Zhenyu Yao [Opens in a new window]  and
Nilesh Shinde Open the ORCID record for Nilesh Shinde [Opens in a new window]
Zhenyu Yao*
Affiliation:
Faculty of Economics, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
Nilesh Shinde
Affiliation:
Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
*
*Corresponding author: Zhenyu Yao; E-mail: yaozhenyu@smbu.edu.cn
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Abstract

While previous scientific literature has found evidence that warming winters result in a loss of crop yields, recent studies suggest that temperature alone may not be the sole factor in determining yields. In this study, we investigate multiple climatic factors (freezing degree days (FDD) and snow cover fraction) to evaluate the heterogeneous impact of snowpack insulation on winter wheat yields in China. We find that a unit increase in FDD causes a loss of 2.37 kg/hectare in winter wheat yields. Furthermore, our results show that snowpack insulation has a statistically significant negative effect on winter wheat yields at lower and middle quantiles, but a statistically significant positive effect at higher quantiles of the winter wheat yields distribution, suggesting that snowpack insulation is important in maintaining higher winter wheat yields.

Keywords

heterogeneity analysissnowpack insulationwarming winterwinter wheat yields

JEL classification

Q10: General Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q18: Agricultural Policy • Food Policy

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Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , First View , pp. 1 - 24
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press

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