After a general review of symmetric reversibility for countable-state continuous-time Markov chains the author shows that the birth-death-and-immigration process is symmetrically reversible and further that it remains so even when the description of the present state is refined to include a list of the sizes of all ‘families’ alive at the epoch in question. This result can be useful in genealogy because the operational direction of time there is the negative one. In view of the symmetric reversibility, some of the questions which face the genealogist can be answered without further calculation by quoting known results for the process with the usual (‘forward’ instead of ‘backward’) direction of time.

Further topics discussed include social mobility matrices, surname statistics, and Colin Rogers' ‘problem of the Spruces’.

A circle is covered by random arcs with a given length a and endpoints chosen (independently and uniformly) among m equispaced points on the circle. The asymptotic distribution as a → 0 and m → ∞of the number of arcs required for complete coverage is given. The result connects earlier results for the cases ma = 1 (a discrete problem) and m = ∞ (the continuous limiting case).

We consider preemptive scheduling on parallel machines where the number of available machines may be an arbitrary, possibly random, function of time. Processing times of jobs are from a family of DLR (decreasing likelihood ratio) distributions, and jobs may arrive at random agreeable times. We give a constructive coupling proof to show that LEPT stochastically minimizes the makespan, and that it minimizes the expected cost when the cost function satisfies certain agreeability conditions.

We consider a space-time random field on ${{\mathbb{R}^d} \times {\mathbb{R}}}$ given as an integral of a kernel function with respect to a Lévy basis with a convolution equivalent Lévy measure. The field obeys causality in time and is thereby not continuous along the time axis. For a large class of such random fields we study the tail behaviour of certain functionals of the field. It turns out that the tail is asymptotically equivalent to the right tail of the underlying Lévy measure. Particular examples are the asymptotic probability that there is a time point and a rotation of a spatial object with fixed radius, in which the field exceeds the level x, and that there is a time interval and a rotation of a spatial object with fixed radius, in which the average of the field exceeds the level x.

If we pick n random points uniformly in $[0,1]^d$ and connect each point to its $c_d \log{n}$ nearest neighbors, where $d\ge 2$ is the dimension and $c_d$ is a constant depending on the dimension, then it is well known that the graph is connected with high probability. We prove that it suffices to connect every point to $ c_{d,1} \log{\log{n}}$ points chosen randomly among its $ c_{d,2} \log{n}$ nearest neighbors to ensure a giant component of size $n - o(n)$ with high probability. This construction yields a much sparser random graph with $\sim n \log\log{n}$ instead of $\sim n \log{n}$ edges that has comparable connectivity properties. This result has non-trivial implications for problems in data science where an affinity matrix is constructed: instead of connecting each point to its k nearest neighbors, one can often pick $k'\ll k$ random points out of the k nearest neighbors and only connect to those without sacrificing quality of results. This approach can simplify and accelerate computation; we illustrate this with experimental results in spectral clustering of large-scale datasets.

The limiting distributions of the sums of the lengths of four different kinds of runs of consecutive successes of Markov Bernoulli sequences are derived. It is shown that the limits are convolutions of several distributions involving the Bernoulli, the geometric and the Poisson or compound Poisson distributions.

The autopsy data of a coherent system is the pair (T, I), where T is the time to the failure of the system, and I is the set of components failed by that time. A basic question is under which conditions the distribution of the autopsy data determines the joint life distribution of the components. This problem has been studied under various distributional and structural assumptions (always under the assumption of independent component life distributions) by Meilijson (1981), Nowik (1990) and Antoine, Doss and Hollander (1993). In this paper we study the same problem in the situation when the autopsy data is supplemented with data from lifemonitoring and conditional lifemonitoring of some components, as introduced by Meilijson (1994).

Strings are generated by sequences of independent draws from a given alphabet. For a given pattern H of length l and an integer n ≥ l, our goal is to maximize the probability of stopping on the last appearance of the pattern H in a string of length n (if any), given that, if we choose to stop on an occurrence of H, we must do so right away. This contrasts with the goals of several other investigations on patterns in strings such as computing the expected occurrence time and the probability of finding exactly r patterns in a string of fixed length. Several motivations are given for our problem ranging from relatively simple best choice problems to more difficult stopping problems allowing for a variety of interesting applications. We solve this problem completely in the homogeneous case for uncorrelated patterns. However, several of these results extend immediately to the inhomogeneous case. In the homogeneous case, optimal success probabilities are shown to vary, depending on characteristics of the pattern, essentially between the value 1/e and a new asymptotic constant 0.619…. These results demonstrate a considerable difference between the true optimal success probability compared with what a first approximation by heuristic arguments would yield. It is interesting to see that the so-called odds algorithm which gives the optimal rule for l = 1 yields an excellent approximation of the optimal rule for any l. This is important for applications because the odds algorithm is very convenient. We finally give a detailed asymptotic analysis for the homogeneous case.

We study the genealogy of so-called immortal branching processes, i.e. branching processes where each individual upon death is replaced by at least one new individual, and conclude that their marginal distributions are compound geometric. The result also implies that the limiting distributions of properly scaled supercritical branching processes are compound geometric. We exemplify our results with an expression for the marginal distribution for a class of branching processes that have recently appeared in the theory of coalescent processes and continuous stable random trees. The limiting distribution can be expressed in terms of the Fox H-function, and in special cases by the Meijer G-function.

Let X, B, and Y be the Dirichlet, Bernoulli, and beta-independent random variables such that X ~ D(a0, …, ad), Pr(B = (0, …, 0, 1, 0, …, 0)) = ai / a with a = ∑i=0dai, and Y ~ β(1, a). Then, as proved by Sethuraman (1994), X ~ X(1 - Y) + BY. This gives the stationary distribution of a simple Markov chain on a tetrahedron. In this paper we introduce a new distribution on the tetrahedron called a quasi-Bernoulli distribution Bk(a0, …, ad) with k an integer such that the above result holds when B follows Bk(a0, …, ad) and when Y ~ β(k, a). We extend it even more generally to the case where X and B are random probabilities such that X is Dirichlet and B is quasi-Bernoulli. Finally, the case where the integer k is replaced by a positive number c is considered when a0 = · · · = ad = 1.

Computer simulations had suggested that the strategy that maximises the score on each turn in the dice game described by Roters (1998) may not be the optimal way to reach a given target in the shortest time. We give an analytical treatment, backed by numerical calculations, that finds the optimal strategy to reach such a target.

We consider a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with piecewise linear drift driven by a spectrally one-sided Lévy process. We show that this SDE has some connections with queueing and storage models, and we use this observation to obtain the invariant distribution.

A dual Markov branching process (DMBP) is by definition a Siegmund's predual of some Markov branching process (MBP). Such a process does exist and is uniquely determined by the so-called dual-branching property. Its q-matrix Q is derived and proved to be regular and monotone. Several equivalent definitions for a DMBP are given. The criteria for transience, positive recurrence, strong ergodicity, and the Feller property are established. The invariant distributions are given by a clear formulation with a geometric limit law.

We propose a method to generate a max-stable process in C[0, 1] from a max-stable random vector in Rd by generalizing the max-linear model established by Wang and Stoev (2011). For this purpose, an interpolation technique that preserves max-stability is proposed. It turns out that if the random vector follows some finite-dimensional distribution of some initial max-stable process, the approximating processes converge uniformly to the original process and the pointwise mean-squared error can be represented in a closed form. The obtained results carry over to the case of generalized Pareto processes. The introduced method enables the reconstruction of the initial process only from a finite set of observation points and, thus, a reasonable prediction of max-stable processes in space becomes possible. A possible extension to arbitrary dimensions is outlined.

We present an elegant uniqueness criterion for the weighted Markov branching process in the potentially explosive case.

We apply the known formulae of the RESTART problem to Markov models of software (and many other) systems, and derive new equations. We show how checkpoints might be included, with their resultant performance under RESTART. The result is a complete procedure for finding the mean, variance, and tail behavior of the job completion time as a function of the failure rate. We also provide a detailed example.

Mallows and Shepp (2008) developed the following necklace processes. Start with a necklace consisting of one white bead and one black bead, and insert, one at a time, under a deterministic rule, a white bead or a black bead between a randomly chosen adjacent pair. They studied the statistical properties of the number of white beads by investigating the nature of the moments and the expected number of gaps of given length between white beads. In this note we study the number of white beads via Pólya urns and give a classification of necklace processes for some general rules. Additionally, we discuss the number of runs, i.e. the number of consecutive same color beads, instead of the number of gaps.

In this paper we characterize the mean and the distribution of the first exit time of a Lévy flight from a bounded region in N-dimensional spaces. We characterize tight upper and lower bounds on the tail distribution of the first exit time, and provide the exact asymptotics of the mean first exit time for a given range of step-length distribution parameters.

We prove a second-order limit law for additive functionals of a d-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H = 1 / d, using the method of moments and extending the Kallianpur–Robbins law, and then give a functional version of this result. That is, we generalize it to the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions for corresponding stochastic processes.

We consider a stationary face-to-face tessellation X of Rd and introduce several percolation models by colouring some of the faces black in a consistent way. Our main model is cell percolation, where cells are declared black with probability p and white otherwise. We are interested in geometric properties of the union Z of black faces. Under natural integrability assumptions, we first express asymptotic mean values of intrinsic volumes in terms of Palm expectations associated with the faces. In the second part of the paper we focus on cell percolation on normal tessellations and study asymptotic covariances of intrinsic volumes of Z ∩ W, where the observation window W is assumed to be a convex body. Special emphasis is given to the planar case where the formulae become more explicit, though we need to assume the existence of suitable asymptotic covariances of the face processes of X. We check these assumptions in the important special case of a Poisson-Voronoi tessellation.