Mallows and Shepp (2008) developed the following necklace processes. Start with a necklace consisting of one white bead and one black bead, and insert, one at a time, under a deterministic rule, a white bead or a black bead between a randomly chosen adjacent pair. They studied the statistical properties of the number of white beads by investigating the nature of the moments and the expected number of gaps of given length between white beads. In this note we study the number of white beads via Pólya urns and give a classification of necklace processes for some general rules. Additionally, we discuss the number of runs, i.e. the number of consecutive same color beads, instead of the number of gaps.

Computer simulations had suggested that the strategy that maximises the score on each turn in the dice game described by Roters (1998) may not be the optimal way to reach a given target in the shortest time. We give an analytical treatment, backed by numerical calculations, that finds the optimal strategy to reach such a target.

We consider a stationary face-to-face tessellation X of Rd and introduce several percolation models by colouring some of the faces black in a consistent way. Our main model is cell percolation, where cells are declared black with probability p and white otherwise. We are interested in geometric properties of the union Z of black faces. Under natural integrability assumptions, we first express asymptotic mean values of intrinsic volumes in terms of Palm expectations associated with the faces. In the second part of the paper we focus on cell percolation on normal tessellations and study asymptotic covariances of intrinsic volumes of Z ∩ W, where the observation window W is assumed to be a convex body. Special emphasis is given to the planar case where the formulae become more explicit, though we need to assume the existence of suitable asymptotic covariances of the face processes of X. We check these assumptions in the important special case of a Poisson-Voronoi tessellation.

In this paper we characterize the mean and the distribution of the first exit time of a Lévy flight from a bounded region in N-dimensional spaces. We characterize tight upper and lower bounds on the tail distribution of the first exit time, and provide the exact asymptotics of the mean first exit time for a given range of step-length distribution parameters.

We prove a second-order limit law for additive functionals of a d-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H = 1 / d, using the method of moments and extending the Kallianpur–Robbins law, and then give a functional version of this result. That is, we generalize it to the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions for corresponding stochastic processes.

After a general review of symmetric reversibility for countable-state continuous-time Markov chains the author shows that the birth-death-and-immigration process is symmetrically reversible and further that it remains so even when the description of the present state is refined to include a list of the sizes of all ‘families’ alive at the epoch in question. This result can be useful in genealogy because the operational direction of time there is the negative one. In view of the symmetric reversibility, some of the questions which face the genealogist can be answered without further calculation by quoting known results for the process with the usual (‘forward’ instead of ‘backward’) direction of time.

Further topics discussed include social mobility matrices, surname statistics, and Colin Rogers' ‘problem of the Spruces’.

A circle is covered by random arcs with a given length a and endpoints chosen (independently and uniformly) among m equispaced points on the circle. The asymptotic distribution as a → 0 and m → ∞of the number of arcs required for complete coverage is given. The result connects earlier results for the cases ma = 1 (a discrete problem) and m = ∞ (the continuous limiting case).

We consider networks with a very large or infinite number of nodes, linked by cable channels. The request which comes to a node is ordered to occupy a certain route of successive channels. The functioning of the system is regulated by the reserving of channels in order of the arrivals of the requests. Under some general conditions the existence of an ergodic region for such networks is proved. The practical value of the result lies in the fact that these conditions do not depend on the size of the graph.

In this article we introduce a simple tool to derive polynomial upper bounds for the probability of observing unusually large maximal components in some models of random graphs when considered at criticality. Specifically, we apply our method to a model of a random intersection graph, a random graph obtained through p-bond percolation on a general d-regular graph, and a model of an inhomogeneous random graph.

Nelson [9], [10] has computed the generating function of return probabilities to the initial state for a particular Markov chain on permutations of three objects. The formula obtained is

The present paper studies three distinct Markov chains generalizing the Nelson chain: the so-called three-coloured chain, with some birth-and-death processes on ℤ as a particular case, a chain on a graph close to the graph of the edges of a cube, and the daisy library. Two other themes piece together these chains: the notion of coloured chain and the technique of computation by additive processes.

Let V be a countably infinite set, and let {Xn, n = 0, 1, ·· ·} be random vectors in which satisfy Xn = AnXn– 1 + ζn, for i.i.d. random matrices {An} and i.i.d. random vectors {ζ n}. Interpretation: site x in V is occupied by Xn(x) particles at time n; An describes random transport of existing particles, and ζ n(x) is the number of ‘births' at x. We give conditions for (1) convergence of the sequence {Xn} to equilibrium, and (2) a central limit theorem for n–1/2(X1 + · ·· + Xn), respectively. When the matrices {An} consist of 0's and 1's, these conditions are checked in two classes of examples: the ‘drip, stick and flow model' (a stochastic flow with births), and a neural network model.

A supplemented GSMP (generalized semi-Markov process) is a useful stochastic process for discussing fairly general queues including queueing networks. Although much work has been done on its insensitivity property, there are only a few papers on its general properties. This paper considers a supplemented GSMP in a general setting. Our main concern is with a system of Laplace–Stieltjes transforms of the steady state equations called the basic equations. The basic equations are derived directly under the stationary condition. It is shown that these basic equations with some other conditions characterize the stationary distribution. We mention how to get a solution to the basic equations when the solution is partially known or inferred. Their applications to queues are discussed.

Let , be a recurrent Markov renewal process and Mik(t) be the expected value of Nk(t) provided that at the initial moment the system is in state i. It is shown that when the mean recurrence times μ ii are finite, the differences μ ij Mki (t) – t behave asymptotically the same for all states i and k.

A birth process is studied in which the birth rate at any time is a function of the difference between the current population size and a target corresponding to unit growth rate. If this controlling function is a decreasing function of its argument a stabilizing effect is to be expected. By supposing that the controlling function varies very slowly, series expansions for the properties of the process are obtained, the leading term corresponding to a diffusion approximation. The sequence of births considered as a point process of controlled variability is examined and approximations to the interval distribution and covariance density obtained.

Recursive relations for computing the higher moments of the stationary waiting time distribution in a stable GI/PH/1 queue are derived. These provide an accurate and stable technique to compute these moments.

Some relationships are derived between the asynchronous and partially synchronous counting and interval processes associated with a multivariate stationary point process. A few examples are given to illustrate some of these relationships.

We establish conditions for an exponential rate of forgetting of the initial distribution of nonlinear filters in V-norm, allowing for unbounded test functions. The analysis is conducted in an general setup involving nonnegative kernels in a random environment which allows treatment of filters and prediction filters in a single framework. The main result is illustrated on two examples, the first showing that a total variation norm stability result obtained by Douc et al. (2009) can be extended to V-norm without any additional assumptions, the second concerning a situation in which forgetting of the initial condition holds in V-norm for the filters, but the V-norm of each prediction filter is infinite.

Detection of repeated sequences within complete genomes is a powerful tool to help understanding genome dynamics and species evolutionary history. To distinguish significant repeats from those that can be obtained just by chance, statistical methods have to be developed. In this paper we show that the distribution of the number of long repeats in long sequences generated by stationary Markov chains can be approximated by a Poisson distribution with explicit parameter. Thanks to the Chen-Stein method we provide a bound for the approximation error; this bound converges to 0 as soon as the length n of the sequence tends to ∞ and the length t of the repeats satisfies n2ρt = O(1) for some 0 < ρ < 1. Using this Poisson approximation, p-values can then be easily calculated to determine if a given genome is significantly enriched in repeats of length t.

We consider an infinite Markov chain with states E0, E1, …, such that E1, E2, … is not closed, and for i ≧ 1 movement to the right is limited by one step. Simple algebraic characterizations are given for persistency of all states, and, if E0 is absorbing, simple expressions are given for the probabilities of staying forever among the transient states. Examples are furnished, and simple necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for the above characterizations are given.

For a single-type Galton—Watson branching process with mean less than one and finite second moment, we establish an upper bound for the mean of the associated Yaglom limit. This bound is attained if and only if the generating function of the process is linear.