The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

To study Schmallenberg virus (SBV) excretion in bovine semen after experimental infection, two bulls were inoculated subcutaneously with a SBV isolate (1 ml Vero cell culture 106 TCID50). After inoculation (at day 0), semen was collected daily from both animals for 21 days and samples were tested for SBV by qRT–PCR assay. At 24 days post-inoculation both animals were subjected to necropsy and the genital organs and lymph nodes draining these organs were also tested for SBV RNA (qRT–PCR). After SBV infection both animals in the study showed viraemia (qRT–PCR) with fever and diarrhoea. SBV RNA could be detected in semen from both animals. The highest SBV RNA concentrations in semen were found in the first week (days 4–7 post-inoculation) but concentrations were relatively low (Ct values 30–39). Viable SBV was only isolated from blood samples and not from semen or genital tissues.

Trypanosoma cruzi I, a discrete typing unit (DTU) found in human infections in Venezuela and other countries of the northern region of South America and in Central America, has been recently classified into five intra-DTU genotypes (Ia, Ib, Ic, Id, Ie) based on sequence polymorphisms found in the spliced leader intergenic region. In this paper we report the genotype identification of T. cruzi human isolates from one outbreak of acute orally acquired Chagas disease that occurred in a non-endemic region of Venezuela and from T. cruzi triatomine and rat isolates captured at a guava juice preparation site which was identified as the presumptive source of infection. The genotyping of all these isolates as TcId supports the view of a common source of infection in this oral Chagas disease outbreak through the ingestion of guava juice. Implications for clinical manifestations and dynamics of transmission cycles are discussed.

This study reports the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalized children in Cyprus over three successive seasons (2010–2013) and the association between prevalent genotypes and disease severity. RSV infections had a circulation pattern from December to March. Most RSV-positive children (83%) were aged <2 years. Genotyping of RSV isolates showed that during the first winter season of the study (2010–2011), the only RSV genotype circulating was GA2 (RSV-A), followed by genotype BA (RSV-B) in the next winter season with only few sporadic cases of GA2. During the last winter season of the study (2012–2013) the newly emerged RSV genotype ON1 (RSV-A) was virtually the only circulating genotype. Children infected with genotype ON1 suffered a significantly milder illness compared to infections with genotypes GA2 and BA with a higher percentage of BA-infected children requiring oxygen. Our findings are in contrast to the majority of published reports that suggest RSV-A causes more severe illness than RSV-B. Therefore, further investigation of the association between RSV genotypes and disease severity is required, as it might affect treatment strategies in the future.

In this study we collected and analysed data of the severe burn patients at our institution over an 11-year period in order to shed light on the controversial role of bloodstream infection (BSI) as a predictive factor for mortality in this burn population. The factors examined were age, total body surface area, smoke inhalation, presence of BSI, and BSI with resistant bacteria. In total 1081 burn patients were hospitalized from 2001 to 2011, of whom 4% died. We focused here on 158 severe burn patients, 74 of whom developed BSI, and 35 who died. Using univariate analysis, it appeared that the BSI group had a threefold greater chance of mortality compared to the non-BSI group. Patients with a Ryan score 3 had a 100% chance of mortality and those with a score 0 had 0%. Thus, focusing only on Ryan score 1 and score 2 patients, BSI did not contribute to mortality, nor was it shown to contribute to mortality in a multivariate analysis in which the score and BSI were included together. When BSI did occur, it predicted longer hospitalization periods. We conclude that BSI predicts longer length of hospitalization stay but does not contribute to the prediction of mortality beyond that offered by the Ryan score in a severe burn population.

Genotypes are associated with the natural course of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and response to antiviral therapy for HCV. HCV genotype 1b has been the dominant genotype in Japan, where the prevention of HCV transmission through blood transfusion or nosocomial infection has been established since 1990. The distribution of HCV genotype was investigated based on patient's birth year in 5515 HCV-infected Japanese individuals at three institutions from different areas of Japan. At all three institutions, the proportion of HCV genotype 1b decreased and was <50% in individuals born after 1970. By contrast, the percentage of HCV genotype 2b increased in subsequent birth cohorts after 1920–1929. Significant changes in HCV genotype distribution were observed across Japan regardless of area.

We investigated an outbreak of 396 Salmonella enterica serotype I 4,5,12:i:- infections to determine the source. After 7 weeks of extensive hypothesis-generation interviews, no refined hypothesis was formed. Nevertheless, a case-control study was initiated. Subsequently, an iterative hypothesis-generation approach used by a single interviewing team identified brand A not-ready-to-eat frozen pot pies as a likely vehicle. The case-control study, modified to assess this new hypothesis, along with product testing indicated that the turkey variety of pot pies was responsible. Review of product labels identified inconsistent language regarding preparation, and the cooking instructions included undefined microwave wattage categories. Surveys found that most patients did not follow the product's cooking instructions and did not know their oven's wattage. The manufacturer voluntarily recalled pot pies and improved the product's cooking instructions. This investigation highlights the value of careful hypothesis-generation and the risks posed by frozen not-ready-to-eat microwavable foods.

This paper estimates the risk of bacterial meningitis following surgery between 1996 and 2009 in Denmark. We conducted two retrospective nationwide cohort studies; first by linking notified bacterial meningitis cases to the National Patient Registry to see how many had undergone a surgical procedure; second, we scrutinized notified bacterial meningitis cases to see if the clinician suspected a surgical procedure to be the aetiology. We found that ear, nose and throat surgery had an 11-fold, and neurosurgery a sevenfold, increased risk compared to the reference group in the first 10 days following surgery. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the pathogen most often involved. Operation procedures involving penetration of dura mater was associated with increased risk for post-operative bacterial meningitis. In absolute numbers we found few bacterial meningitis cases after surgery; however, patients undergoing certain surgical procedures are at-risk and should be considered when national vaccination guidelines are revised.

To identify a cost-effective and practical method for detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in pig herds, the relative sensitivity of four sample types: nasal swabs, ear-skin (skin behind the ears) swabs, environmental dust swabs and air was compared. Moreover, dependency of sensitivity on within-herd prevalence was estimated. spa-typing was applied in order to study strain diversity. The sensitivity of one air sample was equal to the sensitivity of ten pools of five nasal swabs and relatively independent of within-herd prevalence [predicted to be nearly perfect (99%) for within-herd prevalence ⩾25%]. The results indicate that taking swabs of skin behind the ears (ten pools of five) was even more sensitive than taking nasal swabs (ten pools of five) at the herd level and detected significantly more positive samples. spa types t011, t034 and t4208 were observed. In conclusion, MRSA detection by air sampling is easy to perform, reduces costs and analytical time compared to existing methods, and is recommended for initial testing of herds. Ear-skin swab sampling may be more sensitive for MRSA detection than air sampling or nasal swab sampling.

Human behaviours, which are influenced by social, cultural, economic and political factors, can increase or decrease the risk of dengue infection, depending on the relationship with the insect vector. Because no vaccine is currently available, the spread of dengue can only be curtailed by controlling vector populations (Aedes aegypti and others) and by protecting individuals. This study tested the hypothesis that dengue-affected populations are likely to relax their vector-control habits if a potentially protective vaccine becomes available. The hypothesis was tested using two approaches: a mathematical model designed to describe dengue transmission and an empirical field test in which the local population of an endemic area was interviewed about their vector-control habits given the presence of a theoretical vaccine. The model demonstrated that depending on the level of vector-control reduction, there is a threshold in vaccine efficacy below which it is better not to introduce the vaccine. The interview showed that people who were informed that a very effective vaccine is available would reduce their vector-control habits significantly compared to a group that was informed that the vaccine is not very effective.

In late 2011, the insect-transmitted Schmallenberg virus (SBV) emerged in Europe. In this study, a cattle farm located in the core region of the epidemic was closely monitored between May 2011 and January 2012. Up to the end of September every tested serum sample was negative by an SBV-specific antibody ELISA, suggesting the absence of an infection before autumn 2011. Around the end of September/beginning of October SBV genome was detected in blood samples of some animals, and a few cows exhibited fever during that period. Starting at the end of September the first cows seroconverted; the within-herd prevalence reached 100% within barely 1 month. Consequently, SBV spread rapidly in the tested herd during the vector season of 2011.

We conducted a retrospective study on non-typhoidal Salmonella isolates from patients with diarrhoea in Shanghai, China, 2006–2010. A total of 1484 isolates of 70 Salmonella serovars were recovered from about 18 000 stool specimens. Serovars Enteritidis and Typhimurium were the most prevalent with isolation rates of 27·6% and 25·5%, respectively. The majority (1151, 77·6%) of the isolates were resistant to at least one antimicrobial, and 598 (40·3%) to more than three antimicrobials. Approximately half (50·9%) of the isolates were resistant to nalidixic acid and other resistance rates were sulfisoxazole (47·9%), streptomycin (37·6%), ampicillin (31·3%) and tetracycline (30·5%). Co-resistance to fluoroquinolones and the third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins was also identified.

Knowledge of carriage and population dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus is crucial for infection risk assessment and to reveal transmission patterns of strains. We report the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of S. aureus in elderly people (n = 290) living in nursing homes in three cities in the south of Sweden. The overall carriage prevalence rate was 48% when results from nares (31%) and throat (34%) samples were combined. Common spa types were equally distributed but a frequent type, t160, was found only in one of the regions. Carriage of different spa types was detected in 23% of individuals and antimicrobial resistance rates were higher in S. aureus isolates from those carrying more than one spa type. Five of the 21 individuals who carried different spa types were colonized simultaneously with resistant and non-resistant strains. Seventeen per cent of the individuals carried S. aureus of the same spa type on all occasions. Methicillin resistance was not detected. In conclusion we found a high prevalence of S. aureus in this elderly population with a high rate of dual colonization with different spa types. We also found signs of institutional spread of one strain.

The aim of this study was to monitor the spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 pandemic and the following two influenza seasons 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 using a Bayesian Poisson mixed regression model; and implement this model of geographical analysis in the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System to obtain maps of influenza incidence for every week. In the pandemic wave the maps showed influenza activity spreading from west to east. The 2010–2011 influenza epidemic wave plotted a north-west/south-east pattern of spread. During the 2011–2012 season the spread of influenza was geographically heterogeneous. The most important source of variability in the model is the temporal term. The model of spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence is a supplementary tool of influenza surveillance in Spain.

A key element of national control programmes (NCPs) for Salmonella in commercial laying flocks, introduced across the European Union, is the identification of infected flocks and holdings through statutory sampling. It is therefore important to know the sensitivity of the sampling methods, in order to design effective and efficient surveillance for Salmonella. However, improved Salmonella control in response to the NCP may have influenced key factors that determine the sensitivity of the sampling methods used to detect Salmonella in NCPs. Therefore the aim of this study was to compare estimates of the sensitivity of the sampling methods using data collected before and after the introduction of the NCP, using Bayesian methods. There was a large reduction in the sensitivity of dust in non-cage flocks between the pre-NCP studies (81% of samples positive in positive flocks) and post-NCP studies (10% of samples positive in positive flocks), leading to the conclusion that sampling dust is not recommended for detection of Salmonella in non-cage flocks. However, cage dust (43% of samples positive in positive flocks) was found to be more sensitive than cage faeces (29% of samples positive in positive flocks). To have a high probability of detection, several NCP-style samples need to be used. For confirmation of Salmonella, five NCP faecal samples for cage flocks, and three NCP faecal boot swab samples for non-cage flocks would be required to have the equivalent sensitivity of the EU baseline survey method, which was estimated to have an 87% and 75% sensitivity to detect Salmonella at a 5% within-flock prevalence in cage and non-cage flocks, respectively.

Since 2004, efforts to improve poliovirus detection have significantly increased the volume of specimen testing from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) patients in India. One option to decrease collection and testing burden would be collecting only a single stool specimen instead of two. We investigated stool specimen sensitivity for poliovirus detection in India to estimate the contribution of the second specimen. We reviewed poliovirus isolation data for 303984 children aged <15 years with AFP during 2000–2010. Using maximum-likelihood estimation, we determined specimen sensitivity of each stool specimen, combined sensitivity of both specimens, and sensitivity added by the second specimen. Of 5184 AFP patients with poliovirus isolates, 382 (7·4%) were identified only by the second specimen. Sensitivity was 91·4% for the first specimen and 84·5% for the second specimen; the second specimen added 7·3% sensitivity, giving a combined sensitivity of 98·7%. Combined sensitivity declined, and added sensitivity increased, as the time from paralysis onset to stool collection increased (P = 0·032). The sensitivity added by the second specimen is important to detect the last chains of poliovirus transmission and to achieve certification of polio eradication. For sensitive surveillance, two stool specimens should continue to be collected from each AFP patient in India.

This multicentre surveillance study was conducted to investigate the trends in incidence and aetiology of healthcare-associated bloodstream infections (HCA-BSIs) in Taiwan. From 2000 to 2011 a total of 56 830 HCA-BSIs were recorded at three medical centres, and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) were the most common pathogens isolated (n = 9465, 16·7%), followed by E. coli (n = 7599, 13·4%). The incidence of all HCA-BSIs in each and all hospitals significantly increased over the study period owing to the increase of aerobic Gram-positive cocci and Enterobacteriaceae by 4·2% and 3·6%, respectively. Non-fermenting Gram-negative bacteria, Bacteroides spp. and Candida spp. also showed an increase but there was a significant decline in the numbers of methicillin-resistant S. aureus. In conclusion, the incidence of HCA-BSIs in Taiwan is significantly increasing, especially for Enterobacteriaceae and aerobic Gram-positive cocci.

We investigated the prevalence of β-lactamase genes and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (PMQR) determinants in 51 carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) from five teaching hospitals in central China. The prevalence of carbapenem resistance in Enterobacteriaceae was 1·0% (51/5012). Of 51 CRE, 31 (60·8%) isolates were positive for one tested carbapenemase gene, while 10 (19·6%) were simultaneously positive for two tested carbapenemase genes. The positive rates of bla KPC-2, bla NDM-1, bla IMP-4, bla IMP-26 and bla IMP-8 were 54·9%, 17·6%, 11·8%, 11·8% and 3·9%, respectively. Of 10 CRE with two carbapenemase genes, three, five, one and one were positive for bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-4, bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-26, bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-8, and bla KPC-2 and bla NDM-1, respectively. Eight of nine bla NDM-1-positive isolates lacked carbapenemases by the modified Hodge test, while 27/28 isolates harbouring bla KPC-2 were positive for carbapenemases determined by this test; 41·2% of the CRE-positive isolates also harboured ESBL genes in various combinations (three and two positive for bla KPC-2 also carried bla DHA-1 and bla CMY-2). The positive rates of qnrS1, qnrA1, qnrB and aac-(6/)-Ib-cr in CRE were 25·5%, 9·8%, 23·5% and 15·7%, respectively. In particular, 7/9 isolates harbouring bla NDM-1 were positive for these quinolone resistance genes, of which five carried qnrS1 and two carried qnrS1 and qnrB4. All but two of 29 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were grouped into 20 clonal clusters by PFGE, with the predominant cluster accounting for four bla KPC-2-positive isolates distributed in the same hospital. We conclude that there is a high prevalence of bla NDM-1 and PMQR determinants in CRE isolates in central China. Multiple resistance determinants in various combinations co-exist in these strains and we report for the first time the co-existence of bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-26 in a strain of Klebsiella oxytoca.

In 2009 two notable outbreaks, Q fever and the novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, occurred in The Netherlands. Using a composite health measure, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the outbreaks were quantified and compared. DALYs were calculated using standardized methodology incorporating age- and sex-stratified data in a disease progression model; years lost due to disability and years of life lost were computed by outcome. Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 caused more DALYs (24 484) than Q fever (5797). However, Q fever was 8·28 times more severe [497 DALYs/1000 symptomatic cases (DP1SC)] than A(H1N1)pdm09 (60 DP1SC). The A(H1N1)pdm09 burden is largely due to mortality while the Q fever burden is due primarily to long-term sequelae. Intervention prioritization for influenza should support patients in a critical condition while for Q fever it should target immediate containment and support for patients with long-term sequelae. Burden estimates provide guidance for focusing intervention options during outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Antibiotic susceptibilities of large cohorts of Enterobacteriaceae isolated from urine collected in the community are scarce. We report the susceptibilities of Enterobacteriaceae isolated from urine of non-selected community populations in a metropolitan area (Leeds and Bradford, UK) over 2 years. Isolates (n = 6614) were identified as follows: Escherichia coli (n = 5436), Klebsiella spp. (n = 525), Proteus mirabilis (n = 305), and 15 other species (n = 290); 58 isolates were unidentified. Ampicillin resistance was observed in 53% E. coli and 28% P. mirabilis; ⩾34% E. coli and P. mirabilis were non-susceptible to trimethoprim compared to 20% Klebsiella spp.; nitrofurantoin resistance was observed in 3% E. coli and 15% Klebsiella spp. The occurrence of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL) was low (6%), as was non-susceptibility to carbapenems, cefipime and tigecycline (<2%). Further surveillance is required to monitor this level of resistance and additional clinical studies are needed to understand the impact on the outcome of current empirical prescribing decisions.