A predictive column chart was developed to assess the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC) in hepatitis B patients. Data from 107 PLC patients and 107 controls were used as the training set, with 92 patients as the validation set. An additional 446 patients from other hospitals, including 15 with PLC, formed the external validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified gender, BMI, alcohol consumption, diabetes, family history of liver cancer, cirrhosis, and HBV DNA load as independent risk factors. The model showed strong discrimination with AUCs of 0.882 and 0.859 in the training and validation sets, respectively, and good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² = 2.648, P = 0.954; χ² = 4.117, P = 0.846). Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed clinical benefit within a risk threshold of 0.07–0.95. In the external validation group, the model maintained discrimination (AUC = 0.863) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² = 7.999, P = 0.434), with DCA showing net benefit across 0.14–0.95. These results indicate the column chart is a reliable tool for PLC risk prediction in hepatitis B patients.

Climate conditions are known to modulate infectious disease transmission, yet their impact on measles transmission remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the extent to which climate conditions modulate measles transmission, utilizing measles incidence data during 2005–2008 from China. Three climate-forced models were employed: a sinusoidal function, an absolute humidity (AH)-forced model, and an AH and temperature (AH/T)-forced model. These models were integrated into an inference framework consisting of a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model and an iterated filter (IF2) to estimate epidemiological characteristics and assess climate influences on measles transmission. During the study period, measles epidemics peaked in spring in northern China and were more diverse in the south. Our analyses showed that the AH/T model better captured measles epidemic dynamics in northern China, suggesting a combined impact of humidity and temperature on measles transmission. Furthermore, we preliminarily examined the impact of other factors and found that population susceptibility and incidence rate were both positively correlated with migrant worker influx, suggesting that higher susceptibility among migrant workers may sustain measles transmission. Taken together, our study supports a role of humidity and temperature in modulating measles transmission and identifies additional factors in shaping measles epidemic dynamics in China.

Invasive Escherichia coli disease (IED) is associated with high hospitalization and mortality rates, particularly among adults aged ≥60 years. O-antigens are virulence factors required for E. coli survival. To inform EXPEC9V development, a novel glycoconjugate vaccine targeting E. coli O-antigens that is no longer in active clinical development, this retrospective observational study describes O-serotype prevalence among E. coli isolates from IED patients. Eligible patients were identified from medical record databases (9 January 2018–8 November 2019) across 17 tertiary care hospitals in Europe, North America, and Asia. To estimate vaccine serotype coverage of EXPEC9V, E. coli isolates were O-serotyped using whole-genome sequencing and agglutination. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was also performed. Nine hundred and two patients were enrolled, of whom 690 (76.5%) were aged ≥60 years. Common serotypes were O25, O2, O6, O1, O15, O75, O16, O4, and O18, with O25 being the most reported (17.3%). In patients aged ≥60 years, 422/637 E. coli isolates were EXPEC9V O-serotypes. EXPEC9V O-serotype prevalence did not substantially differ when stratified according to sex, presence of a positive blood culture, sepsis, fatality, or multidrug resistance. Consistent with previous studies, serotype O25 was most prevalent and associated with ~20% of cases. An EXPEC9V vaccine serotype coverage of 66.2% was observed for IED patients aged ≥60 years.

Salmonella Typhimurium sequence type (ST) 36 is a rare sequence type in Sweden. During August–November 2024, 100 cases of Salmonella Typhimurium ST36 were reported nationwide. The highest proportions of cases were observed among individuals aged 0–10 years (17%) and 41–50 years (20%), with females representing 65% of the total cases. Microbiological analysis of the S. Typhimurium ST36 isolates identified nine clusters and five individual strains clustering within 53 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. A matched case–control study found cases to be associated with the consumption of alfalfa sprouts (adjusted odds ratio = 8.94, 95% CI: 2.96–27.1). Trace-back investigation identified seeds used by two alfalfa sprout producers in Sweden as the likely source of the outbreak, although microbiological analysis of sprouted alfalfa seeds from the producers did not detect Salmonella. However, continued international investigations further implicated seeds sourced from the same origin, supporting that alfalfa seeds were the ultimate source of the Swedish outbreak. Our investigation and findings indicate that alfalfa sprouts may contain Salmonella and thus pose a health risk to consumers. We emphasize the need for primary producers of alfalfa seeds and sprouts to identify and prevent possible contamination points.

Toxoplasmosis during pregnancy can cause congenital malformations and fetal death. This study aimed to estimate the Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence among pregnant women participating in the 2021 French national perinatal survey and identify associated factors. All women giving birth in France during the study period were invited to participate. Data collected included demographic information, nationality, socio-economic status, education level, and Toxoplasma gondii serological status. Women were classified as seropositive if IgG antibodies were present or if seroconversion occurred during pregnancy. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression analyses with robust error variance were used to estimate prevalence ratios and identify factors associated with seropositivity. Among 12,612 women, the overall seroprevalence was 25.9%, and 0.22% seroconverted during pregnancy. Seroprevalence increased by 5% with every 5-year age increment and was significantly higher in the French overseas territories of Mayotte (75.0%), La Réunion (35.8%), and French Guiana (33.3%). Seroprevalence was also higher among women with lower educational levels (47.4% for primary education) and those of Sub-Saharan African nationality (52.0%). Geographic and socio-demographic variations may reflect dietary and environmental diversity. Despite declining seroprevalence in France, continued public health efforts, particularly among high-risk populations, remain critical to minimize the impact of congenital toxoplasmosis.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have influenced population dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx and may have contributed to increased Staphylococcus aureus colonization. This study assessed the prevalence of colonization, antibiotic resistance patterns, and associated risk factors for colonization and co-colonization of S. aureus and S. pneumoniae in healthy Peruvian children post-PCV introduction. Nasopharyngeal swabs from children <24 months were collected in five hospitals in Lima (2018–2019). Microbiological identification and antibiotic susceptibility tests were performed, and multinomial regression evaluated factors influencing colonization. Among 894 children, 19.7% were colonized with S. aureus, 20.3% with S. pneumoniae, and 2.9% co-colonized. Of the 176 S. aureus strains isolated, 1.7% were methicillin resistant and 20.5% were clindamycin resistant; no resistance to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (SXT) was found. Among 182 S. pneumoniae strains isolated, 48.9% were resistant to macrolides, 74.7% to SXT; no resistance to penicillin was found. Breastfeeding and vaccination with PCV13 were associated with a reduced prevalence of S. aureus colonization, while vaccination with PCV13 increased the prevalence of S. pneumoniae colonization, mainly by non-vaccine serotypes. This study highlights the need to continue monitoring the changes in colonization dynamics and antimicrobial resistance patterns after vaccine introduction, to guide empirical therapy and future vaccine strategies.

Dengue is an arboviral infection that poses a substantial public health concern, with early diagnosis being a critical factor in effective management. However, limited diagnostic expertise in developing countries contributes to the under-reporting of dengue cases. This review compares the accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and the tourniquet test (TT) in diagnosing dengue fever (DF) in non-laboratory-based settings. Relevant original articles on the use of RDTs and TT for dengue diagnosis were retrieved from PubMed, Scopus, and ScienceDirect. The STARD and QUADAS-2 tools were employed to evaluate the methodological quality of the included studies. Search terms included combinations of ‘fever’, ‘dengue’, and ‘“diagnosis’. In total, 23 articles were eligible for inclusion. The RDTs demonstrated mean sensitivities and specificities of 76.2% (SD = 13.8) and 91.5% (SD = 10.3), respectively, while the TT showed mean sensitivity and specificity values of 48.6% (SD = 24.9) and 79.5% (SD = 14.9), respectively. Overall, RDTs exhibited superior diagnostic performance compared to the TT. Our findings suggest that the TT is an inadequate stand-alone diagnostic tool for dengue. RDTs should be prioritized for dengue diagnosis in resource-limited settings. However, in situations where RDTs are unavailable, the TT may serve as a supplementary option.

Sexually transmitted infections caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) and Mycoplasma genitalium (Mg) have significant implications both at the individual and societal levels. Our study evaluated various co-factors associated with persistent serum IgG-antibodies to Ct and Mg. Three hundred and twenty nine pregnant women and 135 men from the Finnish Family HPV study were analyzed for serum IgG-antibodies of pGP3 for Ct and MgPa and rMgPa for Mg using multiplex serology. Seropersistence to both Ct and Mg was more common in women (30.4% and 13.3%) than in men (17.4% and 5.3%). The number of lifetime sexual partners above 10, the practice of anal sex, and a history of diagnosed Ct were associated with seropersistence to Ct in women, adjusted ORs 5.6 (95%CI 1.39–22.29), 15.3 (95%CI 1.18–197.12) and 18.0 (95%CI 5.59–57.92), respectively. The increasing number of partners before the age of 20 was the main risk factor for seropersistence among women with Mg, adjusted OR range from 5.0 to 12.3 (95%CI range 1.17–100.90) and in men only with 6–10 partners for Ct, adjusted OR 12.6 (95%CI 1.55–102.49). To conclude, persistent Ct antibodies were associated with various sexual activities, and Mg seropositivity was mainly associated with increased sexual activity in early adulthood.

This study aims to estimate the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and describe its genotype distribution in MSM in Hong Kong. In this longitudinal study on Chinese MSM, multi-anatomic site self-sampling and testing for HPV, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) were performed following survey completion at baseline and one-year follow-up. Overall, 41% (288/701) of MSM completed self-sampled HPV testing. HPV positivity was 29% (78/270) and 33% (42/127) at any anatomic site at baseline and follow-up timepoints, respectively. By anatomic site, HPV positivity was 26%-30%, 2%-4% and 0%-1% from rectal, penile, and pharyngeal specimens, respectively. The incidence of HPV infection was 21.2/100 and 18.9/100 person-years at any anatomic site and rectal site, respectively. Among 109 successfully genotyped samples, the most prevalent were HPV 6 (17%) and HPV 11 (16%), of which 60% of the genotyped samples were vaccine-preventable. Group sex engagement and less frequent condom use were positively associated with HPV infection (P<0.05). The HPV prevalence and incidence in MSM in this study is lower than in Western countries, and low-risk HPV genotypes are more prevalent. The high proportion of vaccine-preventable HPV subtypes underscores the importance of HPV vaccination in preventing infections in MSM.

Scrub typhus is a mite-borne infection, largely affecting rural populations in many parts of Asia. This cohort study explored socio-demographic, behavioural, and spatial risk factors at different levels of endemicity. 2206 rural residents from 37 villages in Tamil Nadu, South India, underwent a questionnaire survey and blood sampling at baseline and annually over 2 years to detect sero-conversion. Satellite images were used for visual land use classification. Local sero-prevalence was estimated using 5602 baseline blood samples.

Two hundred and seventy cases of seroconversions occurred during 3629 person-years (incidence rate 78/1000, 95%CI 67, 91). Older age was associated with scrub typhus in crude but not in multivariable analysis adjusting for socio-economic factors. By contrast, the increased risk in females compared to males (RR 1.4) was unaffected by adjusting for confounders. In multivariable analysis, agricultural and related outdoor activities were only weakly associated with scrub typhus. However, agricultural activities were strongly associated with scrub typhus if local sero-prevalence was low, but not if it was high. Females were at a higher risk than males in high-prevalence areas but not in low-prevalence areas. To conclude, agricultural activities were not strongly associated with scrub typhus. Transmission within human settlements may predominate in highly endemic settings.

Limited studies on the seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis suggest subtle but unexplained fluctuations in case numbers that deviate from patterns seen in other respiratory diagnoses. Data on weekly acute respiratory infection diagnoses from 2010–2022, provided by the Polish National Healthcare Fund, included a total of 360 million visits. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. Seasonal pattern was estimated using the STL model, while the impact of temperature was calculated with SARIMAX. A recurring early-summer wave of an unspecified pathogen causing pharyngitis and tonsillitis was identified. The strongest pattern was observed in children under 10, though other age groups also showed somewhat elevated case numbers. The reproductive number of the pathogen is modulated by warmer temperatures; however, summer holidays and pandemic restrictions interrupt its spread. The infection wave is relatively flat, suggesting either genuinely slow spread or multiple waves of related pathogens. Symptomatic data unambiguously demonstrate existence of pathogens of quite distinct characteristics. Given its consistent year-to-year pattern, identifying these potential pathogens could enhance respective treatment, including antibiotic therapy.

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Candida are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Geographical variations exist in the epidemiology of candidemia, with a paucity of data in the many low- and middle-income countries. We performed a retrospective study of candidemia from 2017 to 2022 at a 289-bed teaching hospital in the Dominican Republic (DR). A total of 197 cases were reviewed. Overall mortality rate was 49.2%. Age and vasopressor use were associated with mortality. The most prevalent Candida species were C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis. C. albicans was 12% resistance to amphotericin B. These findings underscore the importance of understanding local epidemiology and may help inform empiric therapy and the development of treatment guidelines in the DR.

Anonymous online surveys using financial incentives are an essential tool for understanding sexual networks and risk factors including attitudes, sexual behaviors, and practices. However, these surveys are vulnerable to bots attempting to exploit the incentive. We deployed an in-person, limited audience survey via QR code at select locations in North Carolina to assess geolocation application use among men who have sex with men to characterize the role of app usage on infection risk and behavior. The survey was unexpectedly posted on a social media platform and went viral. Descriptive statistics were performed on repeat responses, free-text length, and demographic consistency. Between August 2022 and March 2023, we received 4,709 responses. Only 13 responses were recorded over a 6-month period until a sharp spike occurred: over 500 responses were recorded in a single hour and over 2,000 in a single day. Although free-text responses were often remarkably sophisticated, many multiple-choice responses were internally inconsistent. To protect data quality, all online surveys must incorporate defensive techniques such as response time validation, logic checks, and IP screening. With the rise of large language models, bot attacks with sophisticated responses to open-ended questions pose a growing threat to the integrity of research studies.

Despite the appeal of screening travellers to prevent case importation during infectious disease outbreaks, evidence shows that symptom screening is largely ineffective in delaying the geographical spread of infection. Molecular tests offer high sensitivity and specificity and can detect infections earlier than symptom screening, suggesting potential for improved outcomes. However, they were used to screen travellers for COVID-19 with mixed success. To investigate molecular screening’s role in controlling COVID-19, and to quantify the effectiveness of screening for future pathogens of concern, we developed a probabilistic model that incorporates within-host viral kinetics. We then evaluated the potential effectiveness of screening travellers for influenza A, SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus. Even under highly optimistic assumptions, we found that the inability to detect recent infections always limits the effectiveness of traveller screening. We quantify this fundamental limit by proposing an estimator for the fraction of transmission that is preventable by screening. We also demonstrate that estimates of ascertainment overestimate reductions in transmission. These results highlight the essential role that quarantine and repeated testing play in infectious disease containment. Furthermore, our findings indicate that improving screening effectiveness requires the ability to detect infection much earlier than current state-of-the-art molecular tests.

The rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs) characterized by increased transmissibility, pathogenicity, and resistance to neutralizing antibodies. Identifying these variants is essential for guiding public health efforts to control COVID-19. Although whole genome sequencing (WGS) is the gold standard for variant identification, its implementation is often limited in developing countries due to resource constraints. In Bolivia, genomic surveillance is a challenge due to its limited technological infrastructure and resources. An RT-qPCR-based strategy was designed to address these limitations and detect the mutations associated with VOCs and variants of interest (VOIs). The multiplex RT-qPCR commercial kits AllplexTM Master and Variants I (Seegene®) and the ValuPanelTM (Biosearch®) were used to target mutations such as HV69/70del, E484K, N501Y, P681H, and K417N/T. They are characteristic of the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.531), Gamma (P.1), Omicron (B.1.1.529), Mu (B.1.621), and Zeta (P.2) variants. A total of 157 samples collected in Cochabamba from January to November 2021 were evaluated, identifying 44 Gamma, 2 Zeta, 20 Mu, and 10 Omicron were identified. The strategy’s effectiveness was validated against WGS data generated with Oxford NanoporeTM technology, showing a concordance rate of 0.96. This highlights the value of the RT-qPCR strategy in guiding the selection of samples for WGS, enabling broader detection of new variants that cannot be identified by RT-qPCR alone.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in intensive care units (ICUs) is a critical issue, which has been exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study investigated AMR prevalence and its associated factors among ICU patients in two Vietnamese hospitals from January 2020 to June 2022. Electronic medical records of 1,296 patients with 2,432 non-duplicate bacterial isolates were collected in Phu Tho Hospital (Northern, rural, non-COVID-19 treatment) and 175 Hospital (Southern, urban, COVID-19 treatment centre). Antibiotic susceptibility testing was conducted using VITEK2, BD Phoenix 100, and disk diffusion methods. Logistic regression with 1,000 bootstrap resampling and cross-validation was used to examine factors linked to AMR. Results revealed Acinetobacter spp. (27.5%) as leading strains in Phu Tho Hospital, while Klebsiella spp. (28.0%) predominated in 175 Hospital, except during 2021when Acinetobacter spp. reached the peak. Alarmingly, Acinetobacter spp., Klebsiella spp., and Pseudomonas aeruginosa demonstrated the highest AMR rates and multidrug resistance rates (83.8%–95.8%) in both hospitals. Resistance to cephalosporins, carbapenems, and fluoroquinolones ranged from 75% to 100%. Significant associated factors included age, sex, location, initial admission diagnosis, and bacterial isolation month. This study highlights the urgent need for controlling AMR in ICUs during the pandemic.

The Secretary of the US Department of Health & Human Services, Robert Kennedy Jr is leading a political agenda against vaccination. This is undermining the delivery of life-saving vaccination programmes and provision of evidence-based information on the safety and effectiveness of vaccines for the public and health professionals. Inconsistent and conflicting messaging between health practitioners and government health agencies erodes trust in public health programmes, creating a vacuum which is often filled with mis/disinformation that presents severe consequences for families. Due to the transnational spread of diseases, we consider the implications of events in the US for routine childhood vaccination programmes in the UK. Public health agencies across the world need to be ‘Kennedy ready’; pragmatic steps must be taken to mitigate threats posed to vaccine confidence and the control of vaccine preventable diseases.