Queueing systems which can be formulated as Markov renewal processes with basic transitions of three types, ‘arrivals', ‘departures' and ‘feedbacks' are examined. The filtering procedure developed for Markov renewal processes by Çinlar (1969) is applied to such queueing models to show that the queue-length processes embedded at any of the ‘arrival', ‘departure', ‘feedback', ‘input', ‘output' or ‘external' transition epochs are also Markov renewal. In this part we focus attention on the derivation of stationary and limiting distributions (when they exist) for each of the embedded discrete-time processes, the embedded Markov chains. These results are applied to birth–death queues with instantaneous state-dependent feedback including the special cases of M/M/1/N and M/M/1 queues with instantaneous Bernoulli feedback.

The corpuscle problem of Wicksell is discussed. We give a numerical quadrature of Gauss–Chebyshev type for Wicksell's integral equation which combines a size distribution of discs on a sectional plane with that of spheres. We also give an estimation procedure of three-dimensional size distributions based on this quadrature and examine its theoretical properties. In practice, we need a smoothing technique for empirical distribution functions before applying this estimator. Simulation results are given. Our idea also is applied to the thick section case and an analysis of microscopic data is given.

In this paper, we present results for the steady-state system length distributions of the discrete-time GI/G/1 queue. We examine the system at customer arrival epochs (customer departure epochs) and use the residual service time (residual interarrival time) as the supplementary variable. The embedded Markov chain is of GI/M/1 type if the embedding points are arrival epochs and is of M/G/1 type if the embedding points are departure epochs. Using the matrix analytic method, we identify the necessary and sufficient condition for both Markov chains to be positive recurrent. For the GI/M/1 type chain, we derive a matrix-geometric solution for its steady-state distribution and for the M/G/1 type chain, we develop a simple linear transformation that relates it to the GI/M/1 type chain and leads to a simple analytic solution for its steady-state distribution. We also show that the steady-state system length distribution at an arbitrary point in time can be obtained by a simple linear transformation of the matrix-geometric solution for the GI/M/1 type chain. A number of applications of the model to communication systems and numerical examples are also discussed.

We give formulae for different types of contact distribution functions for stationary (not necessarily Poisson) Voronoi tessellations in ℝd in terms of the Palm void probabilities of the generating point process. Moreover, using the well-known relationship between the linear contact distribution and the chord length distribution we derive a closed form expression for the mean chord length in terms of the two-point Palm distribution and the pair correlation function of the generating point process. The results obtained are specified for Voronoi tessellations generated by Poisson cluster and Gibbsian processes, respectively.

Relative ageing describes how one system ages with respect to another. The ageing faster orders are used to compare the relative ageing of two systems. Here, we study ageing faster orders in the hazard and reversed hazard rates. We provide some sufficient conditions for one coherent system to dominate another with respect to ageing faster orders. Further, we investigate whether the active redundancy at the component level is more effective than that at the system level with respect to ageing faster orders, for a coherent system. Furthermore, a used coherent system and a coherent system made out of used components are compared with respect to ageing faster orders.

This paper is devoted to the study of two-person zero-sum games for continuous-time jump Markov processes with a discounted payoff criterion. The state and action spaces are all Polish spaces, the transition rates are allowed to be unbounded, and the payoff rates may have neither upper nor lower bounds. We give conditions on the game's primitive data under which the existence of a solution to the Shapley equation is ensured. Then, from the Shapley equation, we obtain the existence of the value of the game and of a pair of optimal stationary strategies using the extended infinitesimal operator associated with the transition function of a possibly nonhomogeneous continuous-time jump Markov process. We also provide a recursive way of computing (or at least approximating) the value of the game. Moreover, we present a ‘martingale characterization’ of a pair of optimal stationary strategies. Finally, we apply our results to a controlled birth and death system and a Schlögl first model, and then we use controlled Potlach processes to illustrate our conditions.

The goal of this paper is to investigate properties of statistical procedures based on numbers of different patterns by using generating functions for the probabilities of a prescribed number of occurrences of given patterns in a random text. The asymptotic formulae are derived for the expected value of the number of words occurring a given number of times and for the covariance matrix. The form of the optimal linear test based on these statistics is established. These problems appear in testing for the randomness of a string of binary bits, DNA sequencing, source coding, synchronization, quality control protocols, etc. Indeed, the probabilities of repeated (overlapping) patterns are important in information theory (the second-order properties of relative frequencies) and molecular biology problems (finding patterns with unexpectedly low or high frequencies).

In this paper we generalize some of the classical results of Rényi and Sulanke (1963), (1964) in the context of spindle convexity. A planar convex disc S is spindle convex if it is the intersection of congruent closed circular discs. The intersection of finitely many congruent closed circular discs is called a disc polygon. We prove asymptotic formulae for the expectation of the number of vertices, missed area, and perimeter difference of uniform random disc polygons contained in a sufficiently smooth spindle convex disc.

A sequence of random triangles is constructed by choosing successively the three vertices of one triangle at random in the interior of its predecessor. A way is found to prove that the shapes of these triangles converge, almost surely, to collinear shapes, thus closing a gap in one of the central arguments of Mannion [5]. The new approach is based on a representation of the triangle process by a sequence of products of i.i.d. random matrices. We succeed in calculating the corresponding Lyapounov exponent.

We introduce a new 1-dependent percolation model to describe and analyze the spread of an epidemic on a general directed and locally finite graph. We assign a two-dimensional random weight vector to each vertex of the graph in such a way that the weights of different vertices are independent and identically distributed, but the two entries of the vector assigned to a vertex need not be independent. The probability for an edge to be open depends on the weights of its end vertices, but, conditionally on the weights, the states of the edges are independent of each other. In an epidemiological setting, the vertices of a graph represent the individuals in a (social) network and the edges represent the connections in the network. The weights assigned to an individual denote its (random) infectivity and susceptibility, respectively. We show that one can bound the percolation probability and the expected size of the cluster of vertices that can be reached by an open path starting at a given vertex from above by the corresponding quantities for independent bond percolation with a certain density; this generalizes a result of Kuulasmaa (1982). Many models in the literature are special cases of our general model.

A stationary Markovian decision model is considered with general state and action spaces where the transition probabilities are weakened to be bounded transition measures (this is useful for many applications). New and improved bounds are given for the optimal value of stationary problems with a large planning horizon if either only a few steps of iteration are carried out or, in addition, a solution of the infinite-stage problem is known. Similar estimates are obtained for the quality of policies which are composed of nearly optimal decisions from the first few steps or from the infinite-stage solution.

The estimation, and testing for the presence, of a selective advantage of one allele over another is considered. It is assumed that a population's allele frequencies are known from some initial time until fixation of one or other allele occurs. The statistics needed to perform the estimation and testing are the heterozygosity of the population summed over all generations, and the observation of which allele fixes. It is shown that certain asymptotic probability distributions arise which are similar to those proved by Brown and Hewitt for statistical inference from diffusion processes, but their results assumed that the diffusion had a stationary density which is not the case for alleles which fix.

The genetic diffusion may be transformed to Brownian motion with constant drift, and the inference questions concerning selection can be transformed to questions about the first exit of a Brownian motion from an interval. It is thus possible to construct significance tests, and to calculate the power of those tests, for detecting selection.

In Benth and Vos (2013) we introduced a multivariate spot price model with stochastic volatility for energy markets which captures characteristic features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, and inverse leverage effect as well as dependencies between commodities. In this paper we derive the forward price dynamics based on our multivariate spot price model, providing a very flexible structure for the forward curves, including contango, backwardation, and hump shape. Moreover, a Fourier transform-based method to price options on the forward is described.

Empirical point processes of exceedances play an important role in extreme value theory, and their limiting behaviour has been extensively studied. Here, we provide explicit bounds on the accuracy of approximating an exceedance process by a compound Poisson or Poisson cluster process, in terms of a Wasserstein metric that is generally more suitable for the purpose than the total variation metric. The bounds only involve properties of the finite, empirical sequence that is under consideration, and not of any limiting process. The argument uses Bernstein blocks and Lindeberg's method of compositions.

A new approach to the solution of optimal stopping problems for one-dimensional diffusions is developed. It arises by imbedding the stochastic problem in a linear programming problem over a space of measures. Optimizing over a smaller class of stopping rules provides a lower bound on the value of the original problem. Then the weak duality of a restricted form of the dual linear program provides an upper bound on the value. An explicit formula for the reward earned using a two-point hitting time stopping rule allows us to prove strong duality between these problems and, therefore, allows us to either optimize over these simpler stopping rules or to solve the restricted dual program. Each optimization problem is parameterized by the initial value of the diffusion and, thus, we are able to construct the value function by solving the family of optimization problems. This methodology requires little regularity of the terminal reward function. When the reward function is smooth, the optimal stopping locations are shown to satisfy the smooth pasting principle. The procedure is illustrated using two examples.

The systems considered are single-server, though the theory has wider application to models of adaptive queueing systems. Arrival and service mechanisms are governed by state (n)-dependent mean arrival and service rates λn and µn. It is assumed that the choice of λn and µn leads to a stable regime. Formulae are sought that provide easy means of computing statistics of effectiveness of systems. A measure of traffic intensity is first defined in terms of ‘effective’ service time and inter-arrival intervals. It is shown that the latter have a renewal type connection with appropriately defined mean effective arrival and service rates λ∗ and µ∗ and that in consequence the ratio λ∗/µ∗ is the traffic intensity, equal moreover to where is the stable probability of an empty system, consistent with other systems. It is also shown that for first come, first served discipline the equivalent of Little's formula holds, where and are the mean waiting time of an arrival and mean system size at an arbitrary epoch. In addition it appears that stable regime output intervals are statistically identical with effective inter-arrival intervals. Symmetrical moment formulae of arbitrary order are derived algebraically for effective inter-arrival and service intervals, for waiting time, for busy period and for output.

A single server faces a renewal stream of low and another one of high priority customers, one of them being a Poisson stream. For the preemptive resume and head-of-the line disciplines the transient behaviour of the queue is studied. Various limiting distributions are also obtained.

We consider a single-type supercritical or near-critical size-dependent branching process {Nn}n such that the offspring mean converges to a limit m ≥ 1 with a rate of convergence of order as the population size Nn grows to ∞ and the variance may vary at the rate where −1 ≤ β < 1. The offspring mean m(N) = m + μN-α + o(N-α) depends on an unknown parameter θ0 belonging either to the asymptotic model (θ0 = m) or to the transient model (θ0 = μ). We estimate θ0 on the nonextinction set from the observations {Nh,…,Nn} by using the conditional least-squares method weighted by (where γ ∈ ℝ) in the approximate model mθ,ν̂n(·), where ν̂n is any estimation of the parameter of the nuisance part (O(N-α) if θ0 = m and o(N-α) if θ0 = μ). We study the strong consistency of the estimator of θ0 as γ varies, with either h or n - h remaining constant as n → ∞. We use either a minimum-contrast method or a Taylor approximation of the first derivative of the contrast. The main condition for obtaining strong consistency concerns the asymptotic behavior of the process. We also give the asymptotic distribution of the estimator by using a central-limit theorem for random sums and we show that the best rate of convergence is attained when γ = 1 + β.

This paper studies optimal routing and jockeying policies in a two-station parallel queueing system. It is assumed that jobs arrive to the system in a Poisson stream with rate λand are routed to one of two parallel stations. Each station has a single server and a buffer of infinite capacity. The service times are exponential with server-dependent rates, μ1 and μ2. Jockeying between stations is permitted. The jockeying cost is cij when a job in station i jockeys to station j, i ≠ j. There is no cost when a new job joins either station. The holding cost in station j is hj, h1 ≦ h2, per job per unit time. We characterize the structure of the dynamic routing and jockeying policies that minimize the expected total (holding plus jockeying) cost, for both discounted and long-run average cost criteria. We show that the optimal routing and jockeying controls are described by three monotonically non-decreasing functions. We study the properties of these control functions, their relationships, and their asymptotic behavior. We show that some well-known queueing control models, such as optimal routing to symmetric and asymmetric queues, preemptive or non-preemptive scheduling on homogeneous or heterogeneous servers, are special cases of our system.

In the study of bivariate processes, one often encounters expressions involving repeated combinations of bivariate continuum operations such as multiple bivariate convolutions, marginal convolutions, tail integration, partial differentiation and multiplication by bivariate polynomials. In many cases numerical computation of such results is quite tedious and laborious. In this paper, the bivariate Laguerre transform is developed which provides a systematic numerical tool for evaluating such bivariate continuum operations. The formalism is an extension of the univariate Laguerre transform developed by Keilson and Nunn (1979), Keilson et al. (1981) and Keilson and Sumita (1981), using the product orthonormal basis generated from Laguerre functions. The power of the procedure is proven through numerical exploration of bivariate processes arising from correlated cumulative shock models.