The linear inverse problem of estimating the input random field in a first-kind stochastic integral equation relating two random fields is considered. For a wide class of integral operators, which includes the positive rational functions of a self-adjoint elliptic differential operator on L2(ℝd), the ill-posed nature of the problem disappears when such operators are defined between appropriate fractional Sobolev spaces. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reconstruct the input random field from the orthogonal expansion (i.e. with uncorrelated coefficients) derived for the output random field in terms of wavelet bases, transformed by a linear operator factorizing the output covariance operator. More specifically, conditions under which the direct orthogonal expansion of the output random field coincides with the integral transformation of the orthogonal expansion derived for the input random field, in terms of an orthonormal wavelet basis, are studied.

The ‘change of numéraire’ technique has been introduced by Geman, El Karoui and Rochet for pricing and hedging contingent claims in the case of complete markets. In this paper we study the ‘change of numéraire’ using the ‘locally risk-minimizing approach’, when the market is not complete. We prove that, if the stochastic process which represents the prices is continuous, the l.r.m. strategy is invariant by a change of numéraire (this result is false in the right-continuous case, as is shown by some counterexamples).

We also give an extension of Merton's formula to the case of stochastic volatility.

We obtain characterizations of densities on the real line and provide solutions to stochastic equations using the Gibbs sampler. Particular stochastic equations considered are of the type X =dB(X+C) and X =dBX+C.

In a similar spirit to the probabilistic generalization of Taylor's theorem by Massey and Whitt [13], we give a probabilistic analogue of the mean value theorem. The latter is shown to be useful in various contexts of reliability theory. In particular, we provide various applications to the evaluation of the mean total profits of devices having random lifetimes, to the mean total-time-on-test at an arbitrary order statistic of a random sample of lifetimes, and to the mean maintenance cost for the second room of queueing systems in steady state characterized by two serial waiting rooms.

We study a variety of optimal investment problems for objectives related to attaining goals by a fixed terminal time. We start by finding the policy that maximizes the probability of reaching a given wealth level by a given fixed terminal time, for the case where an investor can allocate his wealth at any time between n + 1 investment opportunities: n risky stocks, as well as a risk-free asset that has a positive return. This generalizes results recently obtained by Kulldorff and Heath for the case of a single investment opportunity. We then use this to solve related problems for cases where the investor has an external source of income, and where the investor is interested solely in beating the return of a given stochastic benchmark, as is sometimes the case in institutional money management. One of the benchmarks we consider for this last problem is that of the return of the optimal growth policy, for which the resulting controlled process is a supermartingale. Nevertheless, we still find an optimal strategy. For the general case, we provide a thorough analysis of the optimal strategy, and obtain new insights into the behavior of the optimal policy. For one special case, namely that of a single stock with constant coefficients, the optimal policy is independent of the underlying drift. We explain this by exhibiting a correspondence between the probability maximizing results and the pricing and hedging of a particular derivative security, known as a digital or binary option. In fact, we show that for this case, the optimal policy to maximize the probability of reaching a given value of wealth by a predetermined time is equivalent to simply buying a European digital option with a particular strike price and payoff. A similar result holds for the general case, but with the stock replaced by a particular (index) portfolio, namely the optimal growth or log-optimal portfolio.

We study a financial market with incompleteness arising from two sources: stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The latter are given in terms of bounds imposed on the borrowing and short-selling of a ‘hedger’ in this market, and can be described by a closed convex set K. We find explicit characterizations of the minimal price needed to super-replicate European-type contingent claims in this framework. The results depend on whether the volatility is bounded away from zero and/or infinity, and also, on if we have linear dynamics for the stock price process, and whether volatility process depends on the stock price. We use a previously known representation of the minimal price as a supremum of the prices in the corresponding shadow markets, and we derive a PDE characterization of that representation.

We consider two models for the control of a satellite–in the first, fuel is expended in a linear fashion to move a satellite following a diffusion–where the aim is to keep the satellite above a critical level for as long as possible (or indeed to reach a higher, ‘safe’ level). Under suitable assumptions for the drift and diffusion coefficients, it is shown that the stochastic maximum of the time to fall below the critical level is attained by a policy which imposes a reflecting boundary at the critical level until the fuel is exhausted and jumps the satellite directly to the safe level if this is ever possible. In the second model, there is a nonlinear response to the expenditure of fuel, and no safe level. It is shown that the optimal policy for maximizing the expected discounted time for the satellite to crash is similar, in that equal packets of fuel are used to jump the satellite upwards each time it reaches the critical level.

We study the present value Z∞ = ∫0∞ e-Xt-dYt where (X,Y) is an integrable Lévy process. This random variable appears in various applications, and several examples are known where the distribution of Z∞ is calculated explicitly. Here sufficient conditions for Z∞ to exist are given, and the possibility of finding the distribution of Z∞ by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is investigated in detail. Then the same ideas are applied to the present value Z-∞ = ∫0∞ exp{-∫0tRsds}dYt where Y is an integrable Lévy process and R is an ergodic strong Markov process. Numerical examples are given in both cases to show the efficiency of the Monte Carlo methods.

We consider a discrete-time financial market model with L1 risky asset price process subject to proportional transaction costs. In this general setting, using a dual martingale representation we provide sufficient conditions for the super-replication cost to coincide with the replication cost. Next, we study the convergence problem in a stationary binomial model as the time step tends to zero, keeping the proportional transaction costs fixed. We derive lower and upper bounds for the limit of the super-replication cost. In the case of European call options and for a unit initial holding in the risky asset, the upper and lower bounds are equal. This result also holds for the replication cost of European call options. This is evidence (but not a proof) against the common opinion that the replication cost is infinite in a continuous-time model.

Very little is known about the quantitative behaviour of dynamical systems with random excitation, unless the system is linear. Known techniques imply the resolution of parabolic partial differential equations (Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation), which are degenerate and of high dimension and for which there is no effective known method of resolution. Therefore, users (physicists, mechanical engineers) concerned with such systems have had to design global linearization techniques, known as equivalent statistical linearization (Roberts and Spanos (1990)). So far, there has been no rigorous justification of these techniques, with the notable exception of the paper by Kozin (1987). In this contribution, using large deviation principles, several mathematically founded linearization methods are proposed. These principles use relative entropy, or Kullback information, of two probability measures, and Donsker–Varadhan entropy of a Gaussian measure relatively to a Markov kernel. The method of ‘true linearization’ (Roberts and Spanos (1990)) is justified.

We consider the inverse problem of estimating the input random field in a stochastic integral equation relating two random fields. The purpose of this paper is to present an approach to this problem using a Riesz-based or orthonormal-based series expansion of the input random field with uncorrelated random coefficients. We establish conditions under which the input series expansion induces (via the integral equation) a Riesz-based or orthonormal-based series expansion for the output random field. The estimation problem is studied considering two cases, depending on whether data are available from either the output random field alone, or from both the input and output random fields. Finally, we discuss this approach in the case of transmissivity estimation from piezometric head data, which was the original motivation of this work.

A stochastic dynamical context is developed for Bookstein's shape theory. It is shown how Bookstein's shape space for planar triangles arises naturally when the landmarks are moved around by a special Brownian motion on the general linear group of invertible (2×2) real matrices. Asymptotics for the Brownian transition density are used to suggest an exponential family of distributions, which is analogous to the von Mises-Fisher spherical distribution and which has already been studied by J. K. Jensen. The computer algebra implementation Itovsn3 (W. S. Kendall) of stochastic calculus is used to perform the calculations (some of which actually date back to work by Dyson on eigenvalues of random matrices and by Dynkin on Brownian motion on ellipsoids). An interesting feature of these calculations is that they include the first application (to the author's knowledge) of the Gröbner basis algorithm in a stochastic calculus context.

We show a class of stock price models with stochastic volatility for which the most natural candidates for martingale measures are only strictly local martingale measures, contrary to what is usually assumed in the finance literature. We also show the existence of equivalent martingale measures, and provide one explicit example.

Dynamic asset allocation strategies that are continuously rebalanced so as to always keep a fixed constant proportion of wealth invested in the various assets at each point in time play a fundamental role in the theory of optimal portfolio strategies. In this paper we study the rate of return on investment, defined here as the net gain in wealth divided by the cumulative investment, for such investment strategies in continuous time. Among other results, we prove that the limiting distribution of this measure of return is a gamma distribution. This limit theorem allows for comparisons of different strategies. For example, the mean return on investment is maximized by the same strategy that maximizes logarithmic utility, which is also known to maximize the exponential rate at which wealth grows. The return from this policy turns out to have other stochastic dominance properties as well. We also study the return on the risky investment alone, defined here as the present value of the gain from investment divided by the present value of the cumulative investment in the risky asset needed to achieve the gain. We show that for the log-optimal, or optimal growth policy, this return tends to an exponential distribution. We compare the return from the optimal growth policy with the return from a policy that invests a constant amount in the risky stock. We show that for the case of a single risky investment, the constant investor's expected return is twice that of the optimal growth policy. This difference can be considered the cost for insuring that the proportional investor does not go bankrupt.

In this paper we study the problem of pricing contingent claims for a large investor (i.e. the coefficients of the price equation can also depend on the wealth process of the hedger) in an incomplete market where the portfolios are constrained. We formulate this problem so as to find the minimal solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) with constraints. We use the penalization method to construct a sequence of FBSDEs without constraints, and we show that the solutions of these equations converge to the minimal solution we are interested in.

In this paper we consider a position–velocity Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in an external gradient force field pushing it toward a smoothly imbedded submanifold of . The force is chosen so that is asymptotically stable for the associated deterministic flow. We examine the asymptotic behavior of the system when the force intensity diverges together with the diffusion and the damping coefficients, with appropriate speed. We prove that, under some natural conditions on the initial data, the sequence of position processes is relatively compact, any limit process is constrained on , and satisfies an explicit stochastic differential equation which, for compact , has a unique solution.

We consider a risk process with stochastic interest rate, and show that the probability of eventual ruin and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin can be found by solving certain boundary value problems involving integro-differential equations. These equations are then solved for a number of special cases. We also show that a sequence of such processes converges weakly towards a diffusion process, and analyze the above-mentioned ruin quantities for the limit process in some detail.

We consider a continuous polling system in heavy traffic. Using the relationship between such systems and age-dependent branching processes, we show that the steady-state number of waiting customers in heavy traffic has approximately a gamma distribution. Moreover, given their total number, the configuration of these customers is approximately deterministic.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the almost sure stability with a certain rate function λ(t) for a class of stochastic evolution equations in infinite dimensional spaces under various sufficient conditions. The results obtained here include exponential and polynomial stability as special cases. Much more refined sufficient conditions than the usual ones, for example, those described in [14], are obtained under our framework by the method of Liapunov functions. Two examples are given to illustrate our theory.

The solution is presented to all optimal stopping problems of the form supτE(G(|Β τ |) – cτ), where is standard Brownian motion and the supremum is taken over all stopping times τ for B with finite expectation, while the map G : ℝ+ → ℝ satisfies for some being given and fixed. The optimal stopping time is shown to be the hitting time by the reflecting Brownian motion of the set of all (approximate) maximum points of the map . The method of proof relies upon Wald's identity for Brownian motion and simple real analysis arguments. A simple proof of the Dubins–Jacka–Schwarz–Shepp–Shiryaev (square root of two) maximal inequality for randomly stopped Brownian motion is given as an application.