Most of this chapter documents the prevalence of incredible certitude. Section 2.1 calls attention to the core role that certitude has played in major streams of religion and philosophy. Section 2.2 describes conventional certitude in official economic statistics reported by federal statistical agencies in the United States. Section 2.3 discusses dueling certitudes in research on criminal justice. Section 2.4 documents wishful extrapolation from medical research to patient care. Section 2.5 remarks on the complementary practice of sacrificing relevance for certitude, again using medical research to illustrate.

The closing part of chapter poses and assesses arguments that seek to explain incredible certitude. Section 2.6 discusses psychological arguments asserting that expression of incredible certitude in policy analysis is necessary because the public is unable to cope with uncertainty. Section 2.7 considers arguments asserting that incredible certitude is useful or necessary as a device to simplify collective decision making.

Chapter 16, As for the future of England (August 21 - September 17). As the Banque de France and NY Fed loans to Bank of England are used, a French and US loan to the British government is contemplated and arranged through J.P. Morgan and with assistance from the NY Fed and Banque de France. The arrangement leads to the ’bankers’ ramp’ accusations and the relationship between Harrison and Harvey deteriorates. Harrison visits Norman who is unhappy with the Bank for England’s and Harvey’s actions and the decision to peg sterling to the US dollar at 4.86. J. P. Morgan also question the policy of the Bank of England and wonders why Harvey doesn’t raise the bank rate. Harvey seems to be focused on forcing the British government to cut the budget, adn the BIS argues that Great Britain is now the European country with the most serious financial conditions.

In chapter 6, Guarantee at last? (May 26 - June 1), it becomes clear that even though the Austrian parliament passed a law authorizing the government to guarantee Credit Anstalt’s deposits, the struggle is far from over. It is difficult to get information from Credit Anstalt and nervousness about Germany and reparations grows as the Austrian crisis is also developing into a currency crisis. International bankers set up an International Creditors Committee, while the BIS and the Bank of England insist on controllers being associated with the Credit Anstalt and the Austrian National Bank (ANB). Norman confesses to have difficulty separating cause and effect and he grows impatient with the BIS and the ANB.

In chapter 15, Going off the gold standard? (July 14 - August 21) attention shifts to Great Britain and the weakness of sterling. As pressure on sterling increases, Norman fall sick with ’stress’ and he has to take leave of absence from the bank in late July, only to return after Britain has left gold on September 21, 1931. With Norman out of the picture, his deputy Ernest Harvey takes over as the Banque de France and the New York Fed arrange a $200 million credit to the Bank of England. Tensions arise between Harvey on the one hand and Clément Moret (Banque de France) and Harrison on the other, about the use of the credit. The weakening of sterling continues and in late August, Harry Siepmann writes an ominous note discussing the consequences of Great Britain leaving gold.

I discuss my work on diversified treatment under ambiguity. I begin with a simple illustration and then provide the formal analysis. I consider the deontological issue of possible societal preference for equal treatment. I discuss adaptive diversification, which is possible when a planner treats a sequence of cohorts over time.

Section 1.1 calls attention to the prevalent research practice that studies planning with incredible certitude. Section 1.2 contrasts the conceptions of uncertainty in consequentialist and axiomatic decision theory. Section 1.3 presents the formal structure of consequentialist theory, which is used throughout the book. Section 1.4 explains the prevalent econometric characterization of uncertainty, which distinguishes identification problems and statistical imprecision. Section 1.5 discusses the distinct perspectives on social welfare expressed in various strands of research on planning.

Chapter 9, Where and how to place (June 8 - June 13) the question of the placement of the government loan comes front and center. Since the second BIS loan to ANB is conditional upon the placement of the bond loan, the National Bank is increasingly under pressure and the money supply has increased as it has rediscounted for the Credit Anstalt. The CA has no more solid collateral and ANB is losing foreign exchange at an increasing rate. Meantime, Hungary is also suffering from capital flight and the nervousness over contagion and the psychology of the crisis is increasing. The conflicts between the Austrian government and the central banks increases and information is still very hard to come by, all of which contributes to the uncertainty of the situation.