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The Earth is approaching irreversible tipping points. Markets, democracy, and technology alone cannot address these complex crises. Future Design (FD) tackles these challenges by activating human ability to prioritise future generations’ happiness over immediate gains. This research expands the FD framework and reviews a decade’s worth of studies, deepening our understanding of FD’s potential in creating mechanisms for long-term societal well-being and environmental sustainability.
Technical summary
The Earth is approaching irreversible tipping points across multiple domains. Despite advances in markets, democracy, and science, these systems systematically fail to prioritise future generations’ well-being – creating what we term ‘future failures’. New mechanisms are needed, such as FD. Originating in Japan in the early 2010s, FD aims to design, experiment with, and implement mechanisms that activate our futurability – the ability to prioritise the happiness of future generations over immediate gains – to tackle future failures. This paper introduces presentability and pastability alongside futurability, extending the FD framework. Placing various FD studies from the past decade within this framework, this study reviews mechanisms for activating these abilities and examines how activating one ability affects the others. These abilities are ‘leverage points’, as defined by Meadows. We explore the path to a paradigm shift by designing and using mechanisms that activate these points. This paper also highlights unknowns about FD and potential directions for its development, providing a comprehensive overview of its current state and future prospects in addressing global challenges.
Social media summary
Future Design: A new approach to global crises, prioritising future generations over immediate gains.
Flax plays an important role in art, especially for painters. Flax seeds are ground into linseed oil, which is used as binder for oil paints, and fibers are used to make linen canvas as a support for paintings. Because of the rapid growth of flax, linen canvas fiber and linseed oil are considered good candidates for the radiocarbon (14C) dating of paintings. However, the time necessary to transform flax into a linen canvas must be estimated in order to determine the completion date of paintings. Based on the paintings of the French painter Pierre Soulages (1919–2022), who titled his works with the day on which he considered them finished, the time elapsed between completion of the painting and harvesting of the flax was determined for 25 canvases and 13 oil binders. For the canvases, three periods can be distinguished between 1956 and 1981 with durations of 5±1 years in the 1950s, 3±2 years in the 1960s and 11±3 years for the paintings from the 1970s–1980s. For the oil, the time elapsed between the date indicated by the artist and the 14C calibrated date has a mean value of 3±2 years in the 1950s and 1960s and more than 15 years in the 1970s. These long time lags could be due to the massive change in flax processing, which was relocated, resulting in longer times between flax harvesting and canvas marketing. The determination of these time lags enables us to better interpret the 14C dating results for the paintings.
To date, the direct effects of complete glacier disappearance on the specialized fauna associated with this habitat have never been investigated in situ. The Trobio glacier, once the largest in the Bergamo Alps (Italy), completely vanished in 2023 due to climate-induced retreat. This study reconstructs Trobio glacier’s evolution from the Little Ice Age to its disappearance and assesses the impact of glacier extinction on two cryophilic endemic terrestrial arthropod species: the ground beetle Nebria tresignore and the springtail Desoria orobica. Historical maps, literature and recent field data were used to trace glacier changes, while biological surveys evaluated species occurrence to be compared with past (last 10 years) records. These data reveal a direct link between the recorded glacier retreat and species elevational shift: Nebria tresignore shifted upslope about 30 m a-1 following glacial retreat. Desoria orobica showed a dramatic population collapse, with average densities dropping from 80 to < 4 individuals per sample since 2020, likely due to the deeply modified glacial environment. These findings highlight the vulnerability of glacier-dependent biodiversity and the urgent need to document glacier extinction and to identify and protect microrefugia for cold-adapted species in rapidly changing alpine environments.
A partial differential equation governing the evolution of the joint probability distribution of multicomponent flow observations, drawn randomly from one or more control volumes, is derived and applied to examples involving irreversible mixing. Unlike local probability density methods, this work adopts an integral perspective by regarding a control volume as a sample space with an associated probability distribution. A natural and general definition for the boundary of such control volumes comes from the magnitude of the gradient of the sample space distribution, which can accommodate Eulerian or Lagrangian frames of reference as particular cases. The formulation exposes contributions made by uncertain or stochastic boundary fluxes and internal cross-gradient mixing in the equation governing the observables’ joint probability distribution. Advection and diffusion over a control volume’s boundary result in source and drift terms, respectively, whereas internal mixing, in general, corresponds to the sign-indefinite diffusion of probability density. Several typical circumstances for which the corresponding diffusion coefficient is negative semidefinite are identified and discussed in detail. The framework is a natural setting for examining available potential energy, the incorporation of uncertainty into bulk models, and establishing a link with the Feynman–Kac formula and Kolmogorov equations that are used to analyse stochastic processes.
This study is devoted to the analysis of capillary oscillations of a gas bubble in a liquid with an insoluble surfactant adsorbed on the surface. The influence of the Gibbs elasticity, the viscosities of the liquid and gas, as well as the shear and dilatational surface viscosities, on the damping of free oscillations is examined. Dependences of the frequency shift and the damping rate on the parameters of the problem are determined. In the limit of small viscosities and neglecting the surfactant surface diffusion, a simplified dispersion relation is obtained, which includes finite parameters of surface viscosities and Gibbs elasticity. From this relation, conditions are identified under which the damping of capillary oscillations can occur with a small frequency. Numerical solutions of the full dispersion relation demonstrate that a non-oscillatory regime is impossible for the considered configuration. An additional mode associated with Gibbs elasticity is discovered, characterized as a rule by low natural frequency and damping rate. Approximate relations for the complex natural frequency of bubble oscillations in a low-viscosity liquid in the presence of a surfactant are derived, including an estimate of the contribution of the gas inside the bubble to viscous dissipation. An original Lagrangian–Eulerian method is proposed and used to perform direct numerical simulations based on the full nonlinear Navier–Stokes equations and natural boundary conditions at the interface, accounting for shear and dilatational viscosities. The numerical data on the damping process confirm the results of the linear theory.
Chapter 10 provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges posed by rapid urbanisation in China and its impact on urban stormwater management. The chapter introduces the “Sponge City” initiative, whose implementation started by the Chinese government in 2013, as a strategic response to address these challenges. Drawing inspiration from low impact development (LID) and best management practices (BMPs), the Sponge City concept represents a paradigm shift from conventional rapid draining to a more sustainable and flexible stormwater management approach. The authors discuss the key concepts, implementation strategies and technical guidelines for Sponge City construction, supported by case studies from pilot cities such as Shenzhen, Tianjin and Xi’an. The Sponge City initiative reflects a harmonious blend of ancient Chinese wisdom and modern Western stormwater management concepts, offering a promising solution for sustainable urban development in the face of rapid urbanisation in China.
Chapter 7 addresses the challenges of water supply during floods focusing on flood relief/emergency relief operations settings rather than well-organised urban ones. The chapter outlines principles for planning, source identification, water development and quality control in emergency flood situations. It explores key aspects like potable water availability, including quantity, quality, sources, accessibility and reliability. The care and preparation of water supply systems from various sources are discussed, along with emergency preparedness, treatment plant operation, chemical conservation, water testing, bacteriological tests, and disinfection methods. The chapter concludes with insights into water purification techniques and overall management of water supply and quality issues during flood emergencies.
This study examines tephra layers from lacustrine sediment cores collected in Patagonian Andean Range, correlating them with volcanic sources from the southern segment of the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). Ten distinct tephra layers, spanning approximately the last 2000 yr, were identified across four cores from Lakes Rivadavia, La Zeta, Brychan, and Theobald, from ∼42°S to 44°S. Mostly geochemical and mineralogical analyses of tephra components (pumice, glass shards, scoria) reveal that the Chaitén, Michinmahuida, and Huequi volcanoes are the main sources of tephra in the region. Identified eruptions include four from Chaitén (ca. 2008 CE, ca. twelfth, ca. eighth, and fourth to fifth centuries), two from Huequi (beginning of the nineteenth and, possibly, fourteenth centuries), and four from Michinmahuida (ca. seventeenth to eighteenth, thirteenth, eighth, and ca. second centuries). Four of these tephra layers also have potential as isochronous marker beds in the region, allowing a preliminary reconstruction of their regional dispersal patterns. Some tephras may represent previously undocumented or scarcely documented eruptions. These findings suggest that the eruptive frequency in the southern SVZ has been underestimated, emphasizing the need for further research to expand the eruptive history and more accurately assess the volcanic hazards associated with this region.
Embedding climate resilient development principles in planning, urban design, and architecture means ensuring that transformation of the built environment helps achieve carbon neutrality, effective adaptation, and well-being for people and nature. Planners, urban designers, and architects are called to bridge the domains of research and practice and evolve their agency and capacity, developing methods and tools consistent across spatial scales to ensure the convergence of outcomes towards targets. Shaping change necessitates an innovative action-driven framework with multi-scale analysis of urban climate factors and co-mapping, co-design, and co-evaluation with city stakeholders and communities. This Element provides analysis on how urban climate factors, system efficiency, form and layout, building envelope and surface materials, and green/blue infrastructure affect key metrics and indicators related to complementary aspects like greenhouse gas emissions, impacts of extreme weather events, spatial and environmental justice, and human comfort. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core.
Turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in an extended layer of square cross-section with moderate aspect ratio $L/H=8.6$ ($L$ is the length of the cell, $H$ is its height) is studied numerically for Rayleigh numbers in the range ${\textit{Ra}}= 10^6{-}10^8$. We focus on the influence of different types of boundary conditions, including asymmetrical ones, on the characteristics of Rayleigh–Bénard convection with and without an immersed freely floating body. Convection without a floating body is characterised by the formation of stable thermal superstructures with preferred location. The crucial role of the symmetry of the boundary conditions is revealed. In the case of thermal boundary conditions of different types at the upper and lower boundaries, the flow pattern in Rayleigh–Bénard convection has a regular shape. The immersed body makes random wanderings and actively mixes the fluid, preventing the formation of superstructures. The mean flow structure with an immersed body is similar for all combinations of boundary conditions except for the case of a fixed heat flux at both boundaries. The floating disk does not change the tendency of turbulent convection to form a circulation of the maximal available scale under symmetric Neumann-type conditions. The type of boundary conditions has a weak influence on the Nusselt and Reynolds number values, significantly changing the ratio of the mean and fluctuating components of the heat flux. As the Rayleigh number increases, the motions of the body become more intensive and intermittent. The increase of $Ra$ also changes the structure of the mean flow without the body but the additional mixing provided by the floating body preserves the flow structure.
Deserts must be supplied with sediment in order to accrete. The Thar Desert, lying east of the Indus River in South Asia, might be expected to be largely supplied with sediment from that drainage. In this study, we use a combination of major and trace element bulk-sediment geochemistry, together with Sr and Nd isotopes, to constrain the provenance of postglacial dune sand. Our data indicate a stronger influence from mafic source rocks in the Sindh Desert compared to that in Cholistan. Nd isotopes imply sediment was largely derived from the lower Indus River during the early and pre-Holocene post-glacial time. The sand is coarser grained in Sindh and retains higher ϵNd values in sediment that eroded from mafic rocks in Kohistan and the Karakorum as a result of deflation of deltaic and floodplain areas in the lower reaches by southwesterly summer monsoon winds. The composition of Cholistan dunes, like that in the Eastern Thar Desert, reveals instead more supply from Himalayan sources and more negative ϵNd values. The greater Himalayan influence in Cholistan and the Eastern Thar Desert largely reflects finer grain size, a result of the longer transport from the delta source and a preference for more Himalayan supply in the form of finer sediment.
We conduct three-dimensional numerical simulations on centrifugal convection (CC) in a closed annular container, incorporating gravity and no-slip top and bottom boundaries, to systematically investigate rotation-induced secondary flow. The Stewartson layer, identified by an elongated circulation in mean vertical velocity plots, emerges near the inner and outer cylinders only beyond a critical gravitational forcing. Quantitative analyses confirm that the layer thickness scales as $\delta _{\,\!\textit{st}}\sim {\textit{Ek}}^{1/3}$ due to rotational effects, consistent with results from rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection, where $Ek$ represents the Ekman number. The internal circulation strength, however, is determined by both gravitational buoyancy and rotational effects. We propose that gravitational buoyancy drives the internal flow, which balances against viscous forces to establish a terminal velocity. Through theoretical analysis, the vertical velocity amplitude follows $W_{\,\!\textit{st}}\sim {\textit{Ek}}^{5/3}\,Ro^{-1}\,{\textit{Ra}}_g\,Pr^{-1}$, showing good agreement with simulation results across a wide parameter range. Here, $Ro^{-1}$ represents the inverse Rossby number, ${\textit{Ra}}_g$ is the gravitational Rayleigh number, and ${\textit{Pr}}$ is the Prandtl number. The theoretical predictions match simulations well, demonstrating that the Stewartson layer is gravity-induced and rotationally constrained through geostrophic balance in the CC system. These findings yield fundamental insights into turbulent flow structures and heat transfer mechanisms in the CC system, offering both theoretical advances and practical engineering applications.
Mineralogical crystallography has evolved from the geometric and observational studies of the eighteenth century to a dynamic, predictive science capable of probing matter at atomic and nano-scales. Contemporary advances, including ultrafast X-ray free-electron lasers, high-pressure diamond anvil cells, cryo- and environmental electron microscopy, and multimodal in situ techniques, now permit real-time observation of mineral transformations under extreme conditions. Coupled with computational modelling and predictive simulations, these methods are transforming crystallography into an integrative, interdisciplinary discipline with applications ranging from Earth and planetary sciences to materials engineering. This essay explores technological innovations and emerging frontiers of mineralogical crystallography, highlighting its enduring role in revealing the hidden architectures of matter and guiding the exploration of both natural and synthetic materials.
In this paper, we showcase how flow obstruction by a deformable object can lead to symmetry breaking in curved domains subject to angular acceleration. Our analysis is motivated by the deflection of the cupula, a soft tissue located in the inner ear that is used to perceive rotational motion as part of the vestibular system. The cupula is understood to block the rotation-induced flow in a toroidal region with the flow-induced deformation of the cupula used by the brain to infer motion. By asymptotically solving the governing equations for this flow, we characterise regimes for which the sensory system is sensitive to either angular velocity or angular acceleration. Moreover, we show the fluid flow is not symmetric in the latter case. Finally, we extend our analysis of symmetry breaking to understand the formation of vortical flow in cavernous regions within channels. We discuss the implications of our results for the sensing of rotation by mammals.
Vertical thermal convection exhibits weak turbulence and spatio-temporally chaotic behaviour. For this configuration, we report seven new equilibria and 26 new periodic orbits. These orbits, together with four previously studied in Zheng et al. (J. Fluid Mech., 2024b, vol. 1000, p. A29) bring the number of periodic-orbit branches computed so far to 30, all solutions to the fully nonlinear three-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations. These new and unstable invariant solutions capture intricate spatio-temporal flow patterns including straight, oblique, wavy, skewed and distorted convection rolls, as well as bursts and defects. These interesting and important fluid mechanical processes in a small flow unit are shown to also appear locally and instantaneously in a chaotic simulation in a large domain. Most of the solution branches show rich spatial and/or spatio-temporal symmetries. The bifurcation-theoretic organisation of these solutions is discussed; the bifurcation scenarios include Hopf, pitchfork, saddle-node, period-doubling, period-halving, global homoclinic and heteroclinic bifurcations, as well as isolas. Furthermore, these orbits are shown to be able to reconstruct statistically the core part of the attractor, so that these results may contribute to a quantitative description of transitional fluid turbulence using periodic orbit theory.
During the Middle Bronze Age (ca. 2000–1500 BC), the Carpathian Basin witnessed new cultural groups characterized by distinctively different pottery styles and burial rites but unified by the occupation of sites surrounded by ditches or combinations of ditches and ramparts (Bóna 1975; Kovács 1984; Sørensen and Rebay-Salisbury 2008). Due to their long occupation, many such sites are classified as multi-layered settlements (Gogâltan et al. 2014; Jaeger 2016). Despite extensive research, there remains a lack of detailed information on the absolute chronology, spatial development, and chronological relationships between settlement occupation and fortification construction (Jaeger 2016; Staniuk 2021). Most site chronologies are based on funerary ceramic typologies associated with broad temporal ranges and high uncertainties (Jaeger 2016; Staniuk 2021). Kakucs-Turján is only one of nearly 190 multilayered Middle Bronze Age (MBA) settlements in the Carpathian Basin with a tripartite division of space (Harding 2018; Jaeger 2016) (Figure 1). This, combined with its high-resolution archaeological record makes it ideal for investigating the diachronic relationship between MBA habitations and fortifications (Filatova 2020; Staniuk 2020).