We prove a large deviation principle for the slow-fast rough differential equations (RDEs) under the controlled rough path (RP) framework. The driver RPs are lifted from the mixed fractional Brownian motion (FBM) with Hurst parameter $H\in (1/3,1/2)$. Our approach is based on the continuity of the solution mapping and the variational framework for mixed FBM. By utilizing the variational representation, our problem is transformed into a qualitative property of the controlled system. In particular, the fast RDE coincides with Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) almost surely, which possesses a unique invariant probability measure with frozen slow component. We then demonstrate the weak convergence of the controlled slow component by averaging with respect to the invariant measure of the fast equation and exploiting the continuity of the solution mapping.

We consider stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a fractional Brownian motion with a drift coefficient that is allowed to be arbitrarily close to criticality in a scaling sense. We develop a comprehensive solution theory that includes strong existence, path-by-path uniqueness, existence of a solution flow of diffeomorphisms, Malliavin differentiability and $\rho $-irregularity. As a consequence, we can also treat McKean-Vlasov, transport and continuity equations.

Let $B^{H}$ be a d-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in(0,1)$, $f\,:\,[0,1]\longrightarrow\mathbb{R}^{d}$ a Borel function, and $E\subset[0,1]$, $F\subset\mathbb{R}^{d}$ are given Borel sets. The focus of this paper is on hitting probabilities of the non-centered Gaussian process $B^{H}+f$. It aims to highlight how each component f, E and F is involved in determining the upper and lower bounds of $\mathbb{P}\{(B^H+f)(E)\cap F\neq \emptyset \}$. When F is a singleton and f is a general measurable drift, some new estimates are obtained for the last probability by means of suitable Hausdorff measure and capacity of the graph $Gr_E(f)$. As application we deal with the issue of polarity of points for $(B^H+f)\vert_E$ (the restriction of $B^H+f$ to the subset $E\subset (0,\infty)$).

We provide explicit small-time formulae for the at-the-money implied volatility, skew, and curvature in a large class of models, including rough volatility models and their multi-factor versions. Our general setup encompasses both European options on a stock and VIX options, thereby providing new insights on their joint calibration. The tools used are essentially based on Malliavin calculus for Gaussian processes. We develop a detailed theoretical and numerical analysis of the two-factor rough Bergomi model and provide insights on the interplay between the different parameters for joint SPX–VIX smile calibration.

We introduce a bivariate tempered space-fractional Poisson process (BTSFPP) by time-changing the bivariate Poisson process with an independent tempered $\alpha$-stable subordinator. We study its distributional properties and its connection to differential equations. The Lévy measure for the BTSFPP is also derived. A bivariate competing risks and shock model based on the BTSFPP for predicting the failure times of items that undergo two random shocks is also explored. The system is supposed to break when the sum of two types of shock reaches a certain random threshold. Various results related to reliability, such as reliability function, hazard rates, failure density, and the probability that failure occurs due to a certain type of shock, are studied. We show that for a general Lévy subordinator, the failure time of the system is exponentially distributed with mean depending on the Laplace exponent of the Lévy subordinator when the threshold has a geometric distribution. Some special cases and several typical examples are also demonstrated.

We give an extension of Lê’s stochastic sewing lemma. The stochastic sewing lemma proves convergence in $L_m$ of Riemann type sums $\sum _{[s,t] \in \pi } A_{s,t}$ for an adapted two-parameter stochastic process A, under certain conditions on the moments of $A_{s,t}$ and of conditional expectations of $A_{s,t}$ given $\mathcal F_s$. Our extension replaces the conditional expectation given $\mathcal F_s$ by that given $\mathcal F_v$ for $v<s$, and it allows to make use of asymptotic decorrelation properties between $A_{s,t}$ and $\mathcal F_v$ by including a singularity in $(s-v)$. We provide three applications for which Lê’s stochastic sewing lemma seems to be insufficient. The first is to prove the convergence of Itô or Stratonovich approximations of stochastic integrals along fractional Brownian motions under low regularity assumptions. The second is to obtain new representations of local times of fractional Brownian motions via discretization. The third is to improve a regularity assumption on the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion for pathwise uniqueness and strong existence.

This paper examines the issue of derivative pricing within the framework of a fractional stochastic volatility model. We present a deterministic partial differential equation system to derive an approximate expression for the derivative price. The proposed approach allows for the stochastic volatility to be expressed as a composition of deterministic functions of time and a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We apply this method to the European option pricing under the fractional Stein–Stein volatility model, demonstrating its feasibility and reliability through numerical simulations. Our numerical simulations also illustrate the impact of the parameters in the fractional stochastic volatility model on the option price.

In this paper, we time-change the generalized counting process (GCP) by an independent inverse mixed stable subordinator to obtain a fractional version of the GCP. We call it the mixed fractional counting process (MFCP). The system of fractional differential equations that governs its state probabilities is obtained using the Z transform method. Its one-dimensional distribution, mean, variance, covariance, probability generating function, and factorial moments are obtained. It is shown that the MFCP exhibits the long-range dependence property whereas its increment process has the short-range dependence property. As an application we consider a risk process in which the claims are modelled using the MFCP. For this risk process, we obtain an asymptotic behaviour of its finite-time ruin probability when the claim sizes are subexponentially distributed and the initial capital is arbitrarily large. Later, we discuss some distributional properties of a compound version of the GCP.

We derive a new theoretical lower bound for the expected supremum of drifted fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in(0,1)$ over a (in)finite time horizon. Extensive simulation experiments indicate that our lower bound outperforms the Monte Carlo estimates based on very dense grids for $H\in(0,\tfrac{1}{2})$. Additionally, we derive the Paley–Wiener–Zygmund representation of a linear fractional Brownian motion in the general case and give an explicit expression for the derivative of the expected supremum at $H=\tfrac{1}{2}$ in the sense of Bisewski, Dȩbicki and Rolski (2021).

We study a stochastic differential equation with an unbounded drift and general Hölder continuous noise of order $\lambda \in (0,1)$. The corresponding equation turns out to have a unique solution that, depending on a particular shape of the drift, either stays above some continuous function or has continuous upper and lower bounds. Under some mild assumptions on the noise, we prove that the solution has moments of all orders. In addition, we provide its connection to the solution of some Skorokhod reflection problem. As an illustration of our results and motivation for applications, we also suggest two stochastic volatility models which we regard as generalizations of the CIR and CEV processes. We complete the study by providing a numerical scheme for the solution.

In this article we provide new results for the asymptotic behavior of a time-fractional birth and death process $N_{\alpha}(t)$ , whose transition probabilities $\mathbb{P}[N_{\alpha}(t)=\,j\mid N_{\alpha}(0)=i]$ are governed by a time-fractional system of differential equations, under the condition that it is not killed. More specifically, we prove that the concepts of quasi-limiting distribution and quasi-stationary distribution do not coincide, which is a consequence of the long-memory nature of the process. In addition, exact formulas for the quasi-limiting distribution and its rate convergence are presented. In the first sections, we revisit the two equivalent characterizations for this process: the first one is a time-changed classic birth and death process, whereas the second one is a Markov renewal process. Finally, we apply our main theorems to the linear model originally introduced by Orsingher and Polito [23].

This paper investigates spatial data on the unit sphere. Traditionally, isotropic Gaussian random fields are considered as the underlying mathematical model of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. We discuss the generalized multifractional Brownian motion and its pointwise Hölder exponent on the sphere. The multifractional approach is used to investigate the CMB data from the Planck mission. These data consist of CMB radiation measurements at narrow angles of the sky sphere. The results obtained suggest that the estimated Hölder exponents for different CMB regions do change from location to location. Therefore, the CMB temperature intensities are multifractional. The methodology developed is used to suggest two approaches for detecting regions with anomalies in the cleaned CMB maps.

In this paper, we construct operator fractional Lévy motion (ofLm), a broad class of infinitely divisible stochastic processes that are covariance operator self-similar and have wide-sense stationary increments. The ofLm class generalizes the univariate fractional Lévy motion as well as the multivariate operator fractional Brownian motion (ofBm). OfLm can be divided into two types, namely, moving average (maofLm) and real harmonizable (rhofLm), both of which share the covariance structure of ofBm under assumptions. We show that maofLm and rhofLm admit stochastic integral representations in the time and Fourier domains, and establish their distinct small- and large-scale limiting behavior. We also characterize time-reversibility for ofLm through parametric conditions related to its Lévy measure. In particular, we show that, under non-Gaussianity, the parametric conditions for time-reversibility are generally more restrictive than those for the Gaussian case (ofBm).

In this paper, we study some properties of the generalized Fokker–Planck equation induced by the time-changed fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. First of all, we exploit some sufficient conditions to show that a mild solution of such equation is actually a classical solution. Then, we discuss an isolation result for mild solutions. Finally, we prove the weak maximum principle for strong solutions of the aforementioned equation and then a uniqueness result.

This note corrects an error in the definition of the rate function in Jacquier, Pakkanen, and Stone (2018) and slightly simplifies some proofs.

We investigate the European call option pricing problem under the fractional stochastic volatility model. The stochastic volatility model is driven by both fractional Brownian motion and standard Brownian motion. We obtain an analytical solution of the European option price via the Itô’s formula for fractional Brownian motion, Malliavin calculus, derivative replication and the fundamental solution method. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the impact of parameters on option prices, and the results of comparison with other models are presented.

We provide upper and lower bounds for the mean $\mathscr{M}(H)$ of $\sup_{t\geq 0} \{B_H(t) - t\}$ , with $B_H(\!\cdot\!)$ a zero-mean, variance-normalized version of fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$ . We find bounds in (semi-) closed form, distinguishing between $H\in(0,\frac{1}{2}]$ and $H\in[\frac{1}{2},1)$ , where in the former regime a numerical procedure is presented that drastically reduces the upper bound. For $H\in(0,\frac{1}{2}]$ , the ratio between the upper and lower bound is bounded, whereas for $H\in[\frac{1}{2},1)$ the derived upper and lower bound have a strongly similar shape. We also derive a new upper bound for the mean of $\sup_{t\in[0,1]} B_H(t)$ , $H\in(0,\frac{1}{2}]$ , which is tight around $H=\frac{1}{2}$ .

We propose a new multifractional stochastic process which allows for self-exciting behavior, similar to what can be seen for example in earthquakes and other self-organizing phenomena. The process can be seen as an extension of a multifractional Brownian motion, where the Hurst function is dependent on the past of the process. We define this by means of a stochastic Volterra equation, and we prove existence and uniqueness of this equation, as well as giving bounds on the p-order moments, for all $p\geq1$. We show convergence of an Euler–Maruyama scheme for the process, and also give the rate of convergence, which is dependent on the self-exciting dynamics of the process. Moreover, we discuss various applications of this process, and give examples of different functions to model self-exciting behavior.