Causes of Insurgency

Insurgency is an armed rebellion of a section of a population – invariably the minorities in a region – against the policies of the state and its established government. The causes of insurgency are invariably due to social, political or economic reasons. On the other hand, it is the primary duty of the state, particularly in a democracy, to ensure the well-being and security of its citizens. This implies that the state must make itself aware of its people's grievances and redress them well in time to avoid conflict situations. It is apparent that insurgency occurs in most cases, due to poor governance and neglect of minorities, including the constitutional provisions which allow them to air their grievances, and have the same redressed.

Importance of Political Resolution

All the insurgencies in the north-east require political resolution. In Tripura, the tribals need a suitable package, which will guarantee protection of their political, cultural, social rights and economic wellbeing. In Assam, the issue of migration, economic development and protection of rights of the minorities needs to be addressed. In Meghalaya, the issues of migration, economic development and removal of causes of ethnic rivalry also needs to be looked at. In Nagaland and Arunachal, the issues of the NSCN's demands, protection of the cultural, social and political rights of the tribes and economic development have to be addressed.

It is now a truism that nonlinearity is everywhere around us. But what is nonlinearity? We know of linearity through Ohm's law, which essentially shows a linear dependence between physical parameters. Let us take a look at a clock pendulum, in which the period of oscillation does not depend in any way on the amplitude, provided we move close to the point of equilibrium. But if the pendulum is swung with greater amplitude, the period of oscillation becomes dependent on the amplitude. It looks that large amplitude brings into play a new physical reality, which doesn't manifest itself at small amplitudes, and, in fact, which now becomes predominant. We say that here we have nonlinear waves that move with large and often, very large amplitudes. If we now delve into the past, we meet several linear relationships. It is only during the past few decades that scientists have started grappling with something different from linearities and we agree to call them nonlinearities. Nonlinear science is a recent and premature coinage. We often use the terms “nonlinear system” or often “nonlinear dynamics”. The emerging field of mathematical sciences, not to be looked upon as a menagerie of nonlinearities, provides in its variety of components e.g. physical sciences, life sciences, ecological sciences, social sciences etc, different contemporary phases of nonlinear science or nonlinear dynamics or nonlinear systems.

The origin of pursuits on nonlinearities dates back to the later part of the nineteenth century.

Introduction

In the preceding chapter, a different way of looking at qualitative aspects of studies has been presented, indicating what can happen if the variables and parameters change through some values. In this chapter, we take up another motivation that leads to what are called ‘catastrophes’ dealing again with qualitative aspects of mathematical systems. We begin with the genesis of the ideas as ‘catastrophes’, and then consider the mathematics of it followed by exemplars that become applicable at this stage.

Genesis

Stability continues to be our fundamental concern. The whole universe including biological organisms has some kind of stability as its basis. However, it was the great French mathematician Rene Thom who in his classic book, published in 1975, pioneered the technique of applying a theory of stability to mathematical models of various kinds. This technique naturally did advance the cause of qualitative insight and could also demonstrate that the qualitative understanding of a problem was as adequate as its quantitative understanding. A combination of qualitative information as well as quantitative details tends to make the solution of many problems from diverse areas not only easier but more complete, as well. Sometimes, quantitative methods applied to obtain answers to practical problems such as the structural survival of a certain bridge in high winds, or may be, the continuation of roughly elliptical planetary orbits in the solar system are, in effect, qualitative answers.

Location, Demography and Situation

Manipur is a beautiful valley and in many ways similar to Kashmir. It sits astride the Patkai, Naga and Manipur hill ranges – it has Nagaland to the north, Myanmar to the east, Mizoram to the south and Assam to the west. About 75 % of the state is hilly with the hills surrounding the valley on all sides. The valley is about 70 km long and 35 km wide. The hill tribes inhabit the hills and the Meiteis the plains. The 2001 census declared its population to be 23,88,634.

Demographic profile

• Naga Tribes – Ao, Kabui, Angami, Zeliang, Khongazai, Mao, Tangkhul – 13%

• Kuki-Chin-Anal, Chiru, Chothe, Gangte, Koira, Kom, Lamgang, Mizo, Mansang, Paite, Ralte, Sahte, Simte, Thadou, Vaiphei, Zou – 14%

• Meitei – 58%

• Others – 15% (including Muslims)

The seven main Naga tribes of Manipur have a number of subtribes and clans. The main tribes however are dissimilar to each other in many respects including aspects of language and dialect and have throughout history been hostile to each other. Out of the Naga tribes listed above it are only the Aos, Zeliangs and the Angamis that spill across the boundary into Nagaland. Though considered part of the Naga tribes by the authorities, many of the Nagaland Naga tribes do not accept the Manipuri Nagas as being part of them. The Nagas resident in Manipur however universally feel neglected by the Meiteis on issues of economy, jobs, development, culture and governance and strongly feel that the Meiteis have wrongfully seized their lands and sources of livelihood.

India's north-east has been beset by problems arising from lack of economic development and insurgency for long. Though the reasons for these are manifold, they primarily lie within the region's sociological, geographic, historical, economic and political spheres. This book is aimed at giving the reader an overview of the major crises that hamper advancement in the north-east, with the hope that it would assist in arriving at solutions.

The ‘north-east’ comprises the states of Assam, Arunachal, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim, and North Bengal, which though hasn't yet been officially included in the region, forms an integral part of it. The north-east is an area clouded with lack of knowledge and ambiguity for most of our citizens. That it is today an underdeveloped area, troubled with strife, insurgency and low-intensity conflict with our neighbours, where modernity is in conflict with tradition, is largely due to the indifference of the rest of the country. With over 500 different ethnic groups, of which 110 are major, and a consequent diverse ethnic sub-nationalism governed by the primordial values of ‘tribe – land – autonomy’, there is only one commonality – a partially mongoloid heritage. People are in conflict with the state and other ethnic groups, because they feel their values have not been respected and they have been alienated by segregation, social deprivation, lack of development, exploitation because they look, speak and believe differently.

General Overview

Undivided Assam, after British colonisation, was a huge state encompassing the entire north-east, excluding the erstwhile North-East Frontier tracts (present-day Arunachal and north-eastern Nagaland), Manipur, Tripura, Sikkim and North Bengal. Since Independence, it has been progressively split up into smaller states based broadly on ethnic grouping and now consists of:

• plains of the Brahmaputra valley,

• Karbi Anglong Plateau,

• plains of the Barak Valley,

• Cachar and North Cachar Hills,

• plains of Karimganj and Hailakundi districts bordering Bangladesh,

• It is enclosed on all sides by all the other north-eastern states with the exception of Sikkim and Bangladesh. Its unique geographic location – it sits astride the Brahmaputra and Barak river valley plains and has access to all north-eastern areas within it – makes it the hub and the core of the region.

Population and Demography

Assam's population as per the 2001 census was 26,68,407. While details of the 2001 census are still not available, the 1991 census had:

1. 13% Hindus,

2. 48% Muslims,

3. 4% Christians,

4. 8% Budhists,

5. 8% Sikhs,

6. Balance undeclared

Assam's ethnic break-up is broadly:

1. Assamese of Aryan origin 9%,

2. Assamese of Ahom origin 10%,

3. Assamese Muslims (pre-1901) 6%,

4. Mongoloid tribals including Bodos 12%,

5. Manipuris 2%,

6. Nepalese 2%,

7. Tea Tribes (Adivasis) 15%,

8. Bangladeshi Muslims 22%,

9. Bangladeshi Hindus 17%,

10. Labour class from other parts of India 3%.

The Present Politico-Economic Model

The present policy framework for the region is based on a centrally controlled political economy and a cultural approach, adjusted with a regional planning model. It is implemented mainly through the Planning Commission and the North East Council. In this model, the northeast states are required to submit project proposals to the North East Council headquartered in Shillong after taking aspects related to their culture and traditions into consideration. These are then considered at the Council headquarters and then placed before the Council, which consists of the governors, chief ministers, other relevant ministers and bureaucrats of all north-east states, who jointly take a decision on projects, which are to be submitted to the Planning Commission at Delhi. These are considered by the commission and submitted to the government for approval. Projects that will ultimately be executed are dependent on release of funds by Delhi. In reality, nothing goes as per the projections as the system gets short-circuited by states approaching Delhi directly and vested interests coming into play.

Benefits of the Model

All north-eastern states have been declared “Special Category States”, which entitle them to 90% of central assistance as grants and 10% as loan. Some public sector units have also been set up. Industrial licensing, concessional finance, investment subsidy, growth centres, and freight equalisation for some industries have been used to try and promote industrial development.

Applicable nonlinear difference equations

Nonlinear phenomena, in some of its areas, have already been shown to be amenable to mathematization through differential equations. Their evolutionary characteristics have also been dealt with. The purpose of this appendix is to show, in brief, and once again, how a nonlinear phenomenon becomes not only mathematized through what are called nonlinear ‘difference equations’, but also revealing.

We choose again a situation from a biological system. It relates, in particular, to population biology. Let N represent some quantitative measure for a biological population. We take it that essential changes of N take place at certain discrete moments t1, t2 … which usually correspond to the birth of a new generation. Let N0 be the initial value of N at time t0; let the change of the variable N at a given time ti+1 (i = 0, 1, 2, …) be determined by its value at time ti and by externalities like food, habitation, etc. Let Ni be the value of N at time ti. We have then the difference equation of the type

where µ∈∧, the parameter space containing the information conditioned by externalities.

It is a matter of history that Malthus, way back in 1798, proposed a linear dependence of f on N, assuming the change of population to be proportional to the number of individuals:

where C(µ)>–1 is the difference between the birth rate B(µ) and the death rate D(µ).

General Overview

In the preceding chapters, I familiarised readers with the north-east, the insurgency, issues of servicemen/ex-servicemen, and my views on arriving at viable solutions related to foreign, internal, economic and politico–military policies. I will now cover other aspects of problem resolution, within the overall canvas of the region.

I must begin by reiterating that steps towards problem resolution have to be considered for the region in its entirety and not in isolation, as methods of resolution for one state would in all probability impinge on the well-being of another. Simplistic answers (as is the view in Delhi) that resolution of problems with the NSCN (I&M) will automatically resolve insurgency in the entire region as the NSCN (I&M) is the mother organisation to most of the insurgent groups, is a total fallacy. Giving in to their demands would agonise the sensibilities of the ethnic groups of all the neighbouring states.

ISSUES SPECIFIC TO ASSAM

Development in Assam

Assam is the hub of the region – unless there is major economic progress, the problems of the state cannot be resolved. This implies that the highest priority and financial assistance/investment for development in all its facets must be given to Assam, so that it can be developed into an industrial and agricultural base for finished products and infrastructure for the entire region. The NEC should control this to ensure that the entire region's requirements are met.