We present analyses of intergenerational social class mobility based on data from representative samples of the British population from 1972 to 2005. We distinguish throughout between absolute and relative rates of mobility. As regards absolute rates, we find little or no change in total mobility rates over the period covered. In the case of men, there is also little change in rates of upward and downward mobility — in contrast with the middle decades of the twentieth century when upward mobility steadily increased while downward mobility fell. This latter pattern does, however, prevail in the case of women. As regards relative rates, we again find, for men and women alike, an essential constancy over time. This, then, indicates that such changes as are apparent in absolute rates derive from shifts in class distributions rather than from any significant increase or decrease in social fluidity. Our results are contrary to the prevailing view in political and media circles that in Britain today the level of social mobility is in decline, although for men the pattern of mobility has become less favourable. We end with some remarks on policy implications.

Dispersion in pay is lower among union members than among non-unionists. This reflects two factors. First, union members and jobs are more homogeneous than their non-union counterparts. Second, union wage policies within and across firms lower pay dispersion. Unions' minimum wage targets also truncate the lower tail of the union distribution. There are two major consequences of these egalitarian union wage policies. First, the return to human capital is lower in firms which recognise unions than in the unorganised sector. Second, unions compress the wage structure by gender, race and occupation.

One of the features of the sub-prime crisis, that began in August 2007, was its unexpected nature. It came as a surprise not only to most financial market participants but also in some degree to the policy community. In this context, we seek to assess whether early warning systems based on the logit and binomial tree approaches on the UK and US economies could have helped to warn about the crisis. We also consider a ‘check list approach’ of indicators based on history. Although not all of the complementary approaches are successful, we contend that our work suggests that a broadening of approaches to macroprudential analysis is appropriate.

This article examines the statistical issues surrounding the Bank of England's density forecast of inflation and its presentation as a ‘fan chart’. The Bank's preferred central projection is the mode of the density but this underestimates ‘average inflation over a number of years’ in terms of which monetary stability is defined. An alternative fan chart based on central prediction intervals is presented, better reflecting the extent to which the overall balance of risks is on the upside of the inflation target. An ‘all-or-nothing’ loss function is seen to be implicit in the Bank's choices of statistical measures, but is unrealistic.

This paper surveys the recent literature on the relationship between SMEs, financial deepening and economic development. While a large SME sector is not associated with faster economic growth or poverty alleviation, financial deepening can have a pro-growth and pro-poor impact by alleviating SMEs’ financing constraints, enabling firm entry and entrepreneurship, and better resource allocation. It is important to differentiate between different segments of the SME population, most critically between subsistence micro entrepreneurs and transformational entrepreneurs. This paper also discusses the importance of market structure, competition and regulations for SMEs and their access to finance over the business cycle and during crises.

This paper examines the influences of parental social status, childhood cognitive ability, school motivation and education on social status attainment in early adulthood. Using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), a pathway model of transgenerational status attainment is conceptualised, taking into account the context as well as the timing of individual status transitions. The subjects were 3104 men and 3229 women who participated in the 1958 National Child Development Study and 3049 men and 2692 women from the 1970 British Cohort Study, following their lives from childhood to their mid-thirties. The findings suggest that in both cohorts the number of years spent in full-time education is by far the most important determinant of status attainment among men and women and that there are persistent social inequalities in status attainment. The findings furthermore confirm the hypothesis that social background and cognitive ability are partially mediated through school motivation and education, opening up leverage for possible interventions.

In this paper, we estimate the rate of return to first degrees, Masters degrees and PhDs in Britain using data from the Labour Force Survey. We estimate returns to broad subject groups and more narrowly defined disciplines, distinguishing returns by gender and controlling for variations in student quality across disciplines. The results reveal considerable heterogeneity in returns to particular degree programmes and by gender, which have important policy implications for charging students for the costs of their education.

This paper addresses the issue of underemployment in the UK labour market – the demand for hours of work is less than workers’ willingness to supply extra hours. Workers would like to work more hours, but there is insufficient product demand to justify additional hours. This phenomenon has been evident in the UK labour market for some time, but has grown significantly during the Great Recession. In this paper, we develop a new index of underemployment which is intended to combine indicators of excess capacity on the extensive (jobs) and intensive (hours) margins of the labour market. This index continued to increase during 2012, though unemployment was stable. The paper also investigates the microeconomic determinants of underemployment, finding that it is particularly prevalent among the young and unqualified.

This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives saved. We draw upon guidelines used in the UK for public health decisions, as well as other measures, which allow a comparison between health effects and other economic effects. We look at evidence on the effectiveness of past severe restrictions applied in European countries, focusing on the evidence from the UK. The paper considers policy options for the degree to which restrictions are eased. There is a need to normalise how we view COVID because its costs and risks are comparable to other health problems (such as cancer, heart problems, diabetes) where governments have made resource decisions for decades. The lockdown is a public health policy and we have valued its impact using the tools that guide health care decisions in the UK public health system. The evidence suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions in the UK are large relative to likely benefits so that a substantial easing in general restrictions in favour of more targeted measures is warranted.

Digital platforms have the potential to create benefits for their suppliers or workers as well as their customers, yet there is a heated debate about the character of this work and whether the platforms should be more heavily regulated. Beyond the high-profile global platforms, the technology is contributing to changing patterns of work. Yet the existing framework of employment legislation and public policy more broadly – from minimum wages to benefits and pensions – is structured around the concept of ‘the firm’ as the agent of policy delivery. To reshape policies in order to protect the interests of people as workers as well as consumers, it is important to understand why digital innovators make the choices they do, and therefore how labour market policies can improve working conditions without constraining the productivity and consumer benefits enabled by digital business models.

If an exporter or importer uses a foreign currency, his income or costs will be immediately affected when the exchange rate changes; if he uses his own, there will be no effect on contracts that are already fixed. Analysing the pattern of invoicing throws light on what objectives are important in firms' decisions, and in particular on their attitudes toward foreign exchange risk. At the aggregate level, their choice of currency influences the effect of an exchange rate change on a country's balance of trade.

This is the fourth article from members of the CLARE Group to appear in the Review. Future articles will normally appear about twice a year. The Review is pleased to give hospitality to the deliberations of the CLARE Group but is not necessarily in agreement with the views expressed. Members of the CLARE Group are M.J. Artis, A.J.C. Britton, W.A. Brown, C.H. Feinstein, C.A.E. Goodhart, D.A. Hay, J.A. Kay, R.C.O. Matthews, M.H. Miller, P.M. Oppenheimer, M.V. Posner, W.B. Reddaway, J.R. Sargent, M.F-G. Scott, Z.A. Silberston, J.H.B. Tew, J.S. Vickers, S. Wadhwani.

The industrial relations legislation of the 1980s has been widely credited with having made a major contribution to Britain's economic performance. This study evaluates its actual impact. The costs to trade unions of strike action have increased, but the legislation has had some perverse effects, not least in encouraging unions to tighten up their own organisation. The economic consequences predicted by the policy makers are investigated by means of a number of econometric studies. They suggest that the expected employment and wage effects did not occur. They also failed to provide improvements in labour productivity. The study offers an alternative explanation of these findings.

‘All the world has much to learn from German methods of education’, said Alfred Marshall some sixty years ago; as many others have also recognised, this is particularly true of vocational education. Until very recently however it has not been possible to make any comprehensive comparisons of the labour force—to assess the proportions of workers in various industries who have qualified at specified levels, and the proportions who have remained unqualified. Statistical comparisons of qualifications of the labour force hitherto have generally been confined to the narrow stratum of those in the uppermost educational echelons (those with university degrees or their equivalent); where more basic skills have been considered, comparisons have been limited to enrolments for selected broad groups of vocational courses. Very little has been available on the stock who have reached tested levels of proficiency.

Housing price comovements are an important issue in economics. This study focuses on monthly housing prices of 99 major cities in China for the years 2010–2019 by using correlation-based hierarchical analysis and synchronisation analysis, through which one could determine interactions and interdependence among the prices, heterogeneous patterns in price synchronisations and their changing paths over time. Empirical results show that the degree of comovements is slightly lower after March 2017 but no persistent drop is found. Several groups of cities are identified, each of which has its members showing relatively strong but volatile price synchronisations. Certain cities show potential of serving as price leaders within a group. Results here could be useful to policy analysis regarding housing price comovements.

Plastics are already one of the world's main groups of industrial materials; in volume terms, world plastics consumption is now greater than that of all non-ferrous metals combined. The main point that emerges from international comparisons is West Germany's predominance in production and exports (and also in exports of plastics machinery). German production of plastic materials in 1961 was 19 kilograms per head, compared to 17½ in the United States and 12 in Britain. This is not due to lower costs. In material costs, Germany has been, if anything, at a disadvantage : she had only a small petro-chemicals industry in the early post-war years, and she has very little natural gas. In labour costs (which in any case are not very important in this industry) and in plant costs, again there is no evidence of any marked German advantage over her competitors. In general her quoted prices were not below those of other countries.

Following previous comparisons by the National Institute of matched samples of manufacturing plants in Britain and Germany, this study applies similar methods to a branch of the services sector namely, the hotel industry. The objectives were to obtain measures of average productivity-differences between the countries in hotel-work, and to examine to what extent differences in equipment and training are important contributory factors. The paper discusses implications for schooling and training policies.

This paper argues that evidence-based policy has clearly made a worldwide impact, at least at the rhetorical and institutional levels, and in terms of analytical activity. The paper then addresses whether or not evidence-based policy evaluation has had an impact on policy formation and public service delivery. The paper uses a model of research-use that suggests that evidence can be used in instrumental, conceptual and symbolic ways. Taking four examples of the use of evidence in the UK over the past decade, this paper argues that evidence can be used instrumentally, conceptually and symbolically in complementary ways at different stages of the policy cycle and under different policy and political circumstances. The fact that evidence is not always used instrumentally, in the sense of “acting on research results in specific, direct ways” (Lavis et al., 2003, p. 228), does not mean that it has little or no influence. The paper ends by considering some of the obstacles to getting research evidence into policy and practice, and how these obstacles might be overcome.

In February 1996 the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research significantly increased the amount of information they published about the uncertainty surrounding their central projections of inflation. In effect, and in different ways, they each began to publish a density forecast of inflation, that is, an estimate of the probability distribution of possible outcomes for future inflation. The Bank represented this graphically, as a set of forecast intervals covering 10, 20, 30, …, 90 per cent of the probability distribution, coloured red, of lighter shades for the outer bands. This was done for inflation forecasts up to eight quarters ahead, and since the distribution becomes increasingly dispersed and the intervals ‘fan out’ as the forecast horizon increases, the chart became known as the ‘fan chart’ (or, rather more informally, and noting its red colour, the ‘rivers of blood’). The National Institute represented the distribution as a histogram, in the form of a table reporting the probabilities of inflation falling in various ranges. These intervals, or ‘bins’ of the histogram, have changed from time to time; those used currently are: less than 1.5 per cent, 1.5 to 2.0 per cent, 2.0 to 2.5 per cent, and so on. The forecasts refer to the fourth quarters of the current and following years, and from the beginning have included not only inflation but also real GDP growth. Fan charts for real GDP growth first appeared in the Bank's Inflation Report in November 1997.