A simple coupling argument is used to obtain a new proof of a result of Daniels (1967) concerning the total size distribution of the general stochastic epidemic. The proof admits a straightforward generalisation to multipopulation epidemics and indicates that similar results are unlikely to be available for epidemics with non-exponential infectious periods.

The vertices of the kth power of a directed path with n vertices are exposed one by one to a selector in some random order. At any time the selector can see the graph induced by the vertices that have already appeared. The selector's aim is to choose online the maximal vertex (i.e. the vertex with no outgoing edges). We give upper and lower bounds for the asymptotic behaviour of pn,kn1/(k+1), where pn,k is the probability of success under the optimal algorithm. In order to derive the upper bound, we consider a model in which the selector obtains some extra information about the edges that have already appeared. We give the exact asymptotics of the probability of success under the optimal algorithm in this case. In order to derive the lower bound, we analyse a site percolation process on a sequence of the kth powers of a directed path with n vertices.

We consider the likelihood ratio tests to detect an epidemic alternative in the following two cases of normal observations: (1) the alternative specifies a square wave drift in the mean value of an i.i.d. sequence; (2) the alternative permits a square wave drift in the intercept of a simple linear regression model. To develop the approximations for the significance levels leads us to consider boundary-crossing problems of some two-dimensional discrete-time Gaussian fields. By the method which was proposed originally by Woodroofe (1976) and adapted to study maxima of some random fields by Siegmund (1988), some large deviations for the conditional non-linear boundary-crossing probabilities are developed. Some results of Monte Carlo experiments confirm the accuracy of these approximations.

Suppose Q1⋆, … Qn⋆ are independent, identically distributed random variables, each with probability density function f(x), cumulative distribution function F(x), where F(1) – F(0) = 1, f(x) is continuous in the open interval (0, 1) and continuous on the right at x = 0 and on the left at x = 1, and there exists a positive C such that f(x) > C for all x in (0, l). f(0) is defined as f(0+), f(1) is defined as f(1–).

We consider an important class of integer valued stochastic processes characterised by a certain form of time dependent probability generating function (P.G.F.). Certain results are obtained concerning the correlation structure of such processes, and it is shown that these are considerably simplified in the case of a stationary distribution having been attained. The results are illustrated in the latter case using some commonly occurring processes belonging to the class under consideration.

When a complex system such as the Apollo vehicle arrives on the Moon, certain parts may no longer function. To restore the system to a working state, these parts must be replaced by new ones; but the vehicle can carry only a limited number of spare parts and must also be able to leave at a specified time after arrival. This paper investigates an abstract (and simplified) version of the problem of the optimal maintenance procedure for such a system. As a bonus of the abstract formulation, the results obtained are applicable to a variety of specific systems.

Let Mn be the maximal spacing generated in the sample's range by Χ1,· ··, Χ n, independent and identically distributed Gaussian N(0, 1) random variables. We obtain the limiting distribution of and show that

according to whether ε> 0 or ε < 0.

It is demonstrated that for each n ≧ 2 there exists a minimal universal constant, cn, such that, for any sequence of independent random variables {Xr, r ≧ 1} with finite variances, , where the supremum is over all stopping times Τ, 1 ≦ Τ ≦ n. Furthermore, cn ≦ 1/2 and lim infn→ ∞cn ≧ 0.439485 · ··.

We determine the decay rate of the survival probability of subcritical branching processes in a two-state random environment, where one state is subcritical, the other supercritical. This result is applied to obtain the asymptotic behavior (as n →∞) of the number of different words of length n occurring on the binary, and generally the b-ary, tree with Bernoulli percolation.

A new network evolution model is introduced in this paper. The model is based on cooperations of N units. The units are the nodes of the network and the cooperations are indicated by directed links. At each evolution step N units cooperate, which formally means that they form a directed N-star subgraph. At each step either a new unit joins the network and it cooperates with N − 1 old units, or N old units cooperate. During the evolution both preferential attachment and uniform choice are applied. Asymptotic power law distributions are obtained both for in-degrees and for out-degrees.

The problem of computing the distribution of the time of first passage to a constant threshold for special classes of stochastic processes has been the subject of considerable study. For example, Baxter and Donsker (1957) have considered the problem for processes with stationary, independent increments, Darling and Siegert (1953) for continuous Markov processes, Mehr and McFadden (1965) for Gauss-Markov processes, and Stone (1969) for semi-Markov processes. The results, however, generally express the first passage distribution in terms of transforms which can be inverted only in a relatively few special cases, such as in the classical case of the Weiner process and for certain stable and compound Poisson processes. For linear threshold functions and processes with non-negative interchangeable increments the first passage problem has been studied by Takács (1957) (an explicit result was obtained by Pyke (1959) in the special case of a Poisson process). Again in the case of a linear threshold, an explicit form for the first passage distribution was found by Slepian (1961) for the Weiner process. For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and certain U-shaped thresholds the problem has recently been studied by Daniels (1969).

Let F be the infinite-horizon minimal cost function, and FKS the minimal cost function for horizon s and terminal cost function K. In Section 2 we define the ‘stable domain' (the set of K for which ), determine some of its properties, and relate these to the questions of stability of the process (whether ) and whether a given solution of the dynamic programming equation can be identified with F These ideas are developed in Sections 3 and 5 for various strengthenings and weakenings of the hypothesis of non-negative costs. In Section 5 we derive a new sufficient condition for stability and for characterisation of F.

A Markov chain model of a population consisting of a finite or countably infinite number of colonies with N particles at each colony is considered. There are d types of particle and transition from the nth generation to the (n + 1)th is made up of three stages: reproduction, migration, and sampling. Natural selection works in the reproduction stage. The limiting diffusion operator (as N→∞) for the proportion of types at colonies is found. Convergence to the diffusion is proved under certain conditions.

A Borel–Cantelli-type property in terms of one-step transition probabilities is given for events like {|Xn+1| > a + ε, |Xn|≦a}, a and ε being two positive numbers. Applications to normed sums of i.i.d. random variables with infinite mean and branching processes in varying environment with or without immigration are derived.

When passing from two to more dimensions, the study of non-isotropic scattering transport processes, and chain molecules, which are both covered by the same mathematical model, becomes affected by the non-commutativity of rotations. The techniques developed in [2], together with results on radially symmetric direction changes, are used in this paper to obtain a functional central limit theorem for those random processes, with a suitable normalization, the limit being a Brownian motion process which is completely identified.

Let Qn denote the number of times where a simple random walk reaches its maximum, where the random walk starts at the origin and returns to the origin after 2n steps. Such random walks play an important role in probability and statistics. In this paper the distribution and the moments of Qn, are considered and their asymptotic behavior is studied.

A class of binary fission stochastic population models is described, in which the fission probabilities may depend on the age of an individual and the total population size. Age-dependent binary branching processes with Erlangian lifelength distributions are a special case. An asymptotic expression for the growth of the population size is developed, which generalizes known theorems about the asymptotic exponential growth of a branching process.

Using a result of Bikjalis (1971) concerning the rate of convergence in the multidimensional central limit theorem we obtain informations about some limit distributions in multivariate renewal theory.

In the Poisson disorder problem the probability that the parameter of a Poisson process y, has increased by a constant amount, given observations of ys, s ≦ t, is a Markov process of mixed type with jumps of variable (state-dependent) magnitude superimposed upon a drift which satisfies an ordinary differential equation. Using a likelihood-ratio transformation, one can reduce the backward equation satisfied by the expected first-passage time to a constant level for the mixed process to a differential-difference equation with a constant retardation. We discuss a method for solving this equation and present some numerical results on its solution. The accuracy of some approximations which are easier to calculate is investigated.

We derive explicit closed expressions for the moment generating functions of whole collections of quantities associated with the waiting time till the occurrence of composite events in either discrete or continuous-time models. The discrete-time models are independent, or Markov-dependent, binary trials and the events of interest are collections of successes with the property that each two consecutive successes are separated by no more than a fixed number of failures. The continuous-time models are renewal processes and the relevant events are clusters of points. We provide a unifying technology for treating both the discrete and continuous-time cases. This is based on first embedding the problems into similar ones for suitably selected Markov chains or Markov renewal processes, and second, applying tools from the exponential family technology.