The symmetric rendezvous problem on a network Q asks how two players, forced to use the same mixed strategy, can minimize their expected meeting time, starting from a known initial distribution on the nodes of Q. This minimum is called the (symmetric) ‘rendezvous value’ of Q. Traditionally, the players are assumed to receive no information while playing the game. We consider the effect on rendezvous times of giving the players some information about past actions and chance moves, enabling each of them to apply Bayesian updates to improve his knowledge of the other's whereabouts. This technique can be used to give lower bounds on the rendezvous times of the original game (without any revealed information). We consider the case in which they are placed a known distance apart on the line graph Q (known as ‘symmetric rendezvous on the line’). Our approach is to concentrate on a general analysis of the effect of revelations, rather than compute the best bounds possible with our technique.

The simulation of distributions of financial assets is an important issue for financial institutions. If risk measures are evaluated for a simulated distribution instead of the model-implied distribution, the errors in the risk measurements need to be analyzed. For distribution-invariant risk measures which are continuous on compacts, we employ the theory of large deviations to study the probability of large errors. If the approximate risk measurements are based on the empirical distribution of independent samples, then the rate function equals the minimal relative entropy under a risk measure constraint. We solve this minimization problem explicitly for shortfall risk and average value at risk.

The variable generalised stochastic epidemic model, which allows for variability in both the susceptibilities and infectivities of individuals, is analysed. A very different epidemic model which exhibits variable susceptibility and infectivity is the random-graph epidemic model. A suitable coupling of the two epidemic models is derived which enables us to show that, whilst the epidemics are very different in appearance, they have the same asymptotic final size distribution. The coupling provides a novel approach to studying random-graph epidemic models.

This paper presents a study of the intertemporal propagation of distributional properties of phenotypes in general polygenic multisex inheritance models with sex- and time-dependent heritabilities. It further analyzes the implications of these models under heavy-tailedness of traits' initial distributions. Our results suggest the optimality of a flexible asexual/binary mating system. Switching between asexual and binary inheritance mechanisms allows the population effectively to achieve a fast suppression of negative traits and a fast dispersion of positive traits, regardless of the distributional properties of the phenotypes in the initial period.

In this paper we study two distributions, namely the distribution of the waiting times until given numbers of occurrences of compound patterns and the distribution of the numbers of occurrences of compound patterns in a fixed number of trials. We elucidate the interrelation between these two distributions in terms of the generating functions. We provide perspectives on the problems related to compound patterns in statistics and probability. As an application, the waiting time problem of counting runs of specified lengths is considered in order to illustrate how the distributions of waiting times can be derived from our theoretical results.

In this paper we study reliability properties of consecutive-k-out-of-n systems with exchangeable components. For 2k ≦ n, we show that the reliability functions of these systems can be written as negative mixtures (i.e. mixtures with some negative weights) of two series (or parallel) systems. Some monotonicity and asymptotic properties for the mean residual lifetime function are obtained and some ordering properties between these systems are established. We prove that, under some assumptions, the mean residual lifetime function of the consecutive-k-out-of-n: G system (i.e. a system that functions if and only if at least k consecutive components function) is asymptotically equivalent to that of a series system with k components. When the components are independent and identically distributed, we show that consecutive-k-out-of-n systems are ordered in the likelihood ratio order and, hence, in the mean residual lifetime order, for 2k ≦ n. However, we show that this is not necessarily true when the components are dependent.

Two cumulative damage models are considered, the inverse gamma process and a composed gamma process. They can be seen as ‘continuous’ analogues of Poisson and compound Poisson processes, respectively. For these models the first passage time distribution functions are derived. Inhomogeneous versions of these processes lead to models closely related to the Weibull failure model. All models show interesting size effects.

A large deviations principle (LDP), demonstrated for occupancy problems with indistinguishable balls, is generalized to the case in which balls are distinguished by a finite number of colors. The colors of the balls are chosen independently from the occupancy process itself. There are r balls thrown into n urns with the probability of a ball entering a given urn being 1/n (i.e. Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics). The LDP applies with the scale parameter, n, tending to infinity and r increasing proportionally. The LDP holds under mild restrictions, the key one being that the coloring process by itself satisfies an LDP. This includes the important special cases of deterministic coloring patterns and colors chosen with fixed probabilities independently for each ball.

In this note we consider branching processes whose behavior depends on a dynamic random environment, in the sense that we assume that the offspring distributions of individuals are parametrized, over time, by the realizations of a process describing the environmental evolution. We study how the variability in time of the environment modifies the variability of total population by considering two branching processes of this kind (but subjected to different environments). We also provide conditions on the random environments in order to stochastically compare their marginal distributions in the increasing convex sense. Weaker conditions are also provided for comparisons at every fixed time of the expected values of the two populations.

Most devices (systems) are operated under different environmental conditions. The failure process of a system not only depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the system itself but also on the external environmental conditions under which the system is being operated. In this paper we study a stochastic failure model in a random environment and investigate the effect of the environmental factors on the failure process of the system.

We show that there exist symmetric properties in the discrete n-cube whose threshold widths range asymptotically between 1/√n and 1/logn. These properties are built using a combination of failure sets arising in reliability theory. This combination of sets is simply called a product. Some general results on the threshold width of the product of two sets A and B in terms of the threshold locations and widths of A and B are provided.

In this paper we investigate sufficient conditions that ensure the optimality of threshold strategies for optimal stopping problems with finite or perpetual maturities. Our result is based on a local-time argument that enables us to give an alternative proof of the smooth-fit principle. Moreover, we present a class of optimal stopping problems for which the propagation of convexity fails.

A gambler starts with fortune f < 1 and plays in a Vardi casino with infinitely many tables indexed by their odds, r ≥ 0. In addition, all tables return the same expected winnings per dollar, c < 0, and a discount factor is applied after each round. We determine the optimal probability of reaching fortune 1, as well as an optimal strategy that is different from bold play for fortunes larger than a critical value depending exclusively on c and 1 + a, the discount factor. The general result is computed explicitly for some relevant special cases. The question of whether bold play is an optimal strategy is discussed for various choices of the parameters.

In the classic Dubins-Savage subfair primitive casino gambling problem, the gambler can stake any amount in his possession, winning (1 - r)/r times the stake with probability w and losing the stake with probability 1 - w, 0 ≤ w ≤ r ≤ 1. The gambler seeks to maximize the probability of reaching a fixed fortune by gambling repeatedly with suitably chosen stakes. This problem has been extended in several directions to account for limited playing time or future discounting. We propose a unifying framework that covers these extensions, and prove that bold play is optimal provided that w ≤ ½ ≤ r. We also show that this condition is in fact necessary for bold play to be optimal subject to the constraint of limited playing time.

In this paper we present some necessary conditions for the uniqueness, recurrence, and ergodicity of a class of multidimensional Q-processes, using the dual Yan-Chen comparison method. Then the coupling method is used to study the multidimensional processes in a specific space. As applications, three models of particle systems are illustrated.

We give a simple and direct treatment of insensitivity in stochastic networks which is quite general and provides probabilistic insight into the phenomenon. In the case of multi-class networks, our results generalise those of Bonald and Proutière (2002), (2003).

A large dam model is the object of study of this paper. The parameters L lower and L upper define its lower and upper levels,L = L upper - L lower is large, and if the current level of water is between these bounds, the dam is assumed to be in a normal state. Passage across one or other of the levels leads to damage. Let J 1 and J 2 denote the damage costs of crossing the lower and, respectively, the upper levels. It is assumed that the input stream of water is described by a Poisson process, while the output stream is state dependent. Let L t denote the dam level at time t, and let p 1 = limt→∞P{L t = L lower} and p 2 = limt→∞P{L t > L upper} exist. The long-run average cost,J = p 1 J 1 + p 2 J 2, is a performance measure. The aim of the paper is to choose the parameter controlling the output stream so as to minimize J.

We analyze the unit-demand Euclidean vehicle routeing problem, where n customers are modeled as independent, identically distributed uniform points and have unit demand. We show new lower bounds on the optimal cost for the metric vehicle routeing problem and analyze them in this setting. We prove that there exists a constant ĉ > 0 such that the iterated tour partitioning heuristic given by Haimovich and Rinnooy Kan (1985) is a (2 - ĉ)-approximation algorithm with probability arbitrarily close to 1 as the number of customers goes to ∞. It has been a longstanding open problem as to whether one can improve upon the factor of 2 given by Haimovich and Rinnooy Kan. We also generalize this, and previous results, to the multidepot case.

We present an elegant uniqueness criterion for the weighted Markov branching process in the potentially explosive case.