This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the frequency and severity of accidents involving electric vehicles (EVs) in comparison to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). It draws on extensive data from Norway from 2020 to 2023, a period characterised by significant EV adoption. We examine over two million registered EVs that collectively account for 28 billion kilometres of travel. In total we have analysed 139 billion kilometres of travel and close to 14,0000 accidents across all fuel types. We supplement this data with data from the Highway Loss Data Institute in the US and Association of British Insurers data in the UK as well as information from the Guy Carpenter large loss motor database.

A thorough analysis comparing accident frequency and severity of EVs with ICEVs in the literature to date has yet to be conducted, which this paper aims to address. This research will assist actuaries and analysts across various domains, including pricing, reserving and reinsurance considerations.

Our findings reveal a notable reduction in the frequency of accidents across all fuel types over time. Specifically, EVs demonstrate a lower accident frequency compared to ICEVs, a trend that may be attributed more to advancements in technology rather than the inherent characteristics of the fuel type, even when adjusted for COVID. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that EVs experience fewer accidents involving single units relative to non-EV and suggests a decrease in driver error and superior performance on regular road types.

Reduction in EV accident frequency of 17% and a change in the distribution of average severity with higher damage costs and lower injury costs leading to an overall reduction of 11%

However, it is important to note that when accidents do occur, the number of units involved as a proxy for severity involving EVs is marginally higher than those involving ICEVs. The average claim cost profile for EVs changes significantly with property damage claims being more expensive and bodily injury claims being less expensive for EVs.

Overall, our research concludes that EVs present a lower risk profile compared to their ICEV counterparts, highlighting the evolving landscape of vehicle safety in the context of increasing EV utilisation.

This research presents the design, pricing, and consumer testing results of a potential private financial product that integrates retirement savings with social care funding through contributions to a supplemental defined contribution pension scheme. With this product, some contributions will be earmarked specifically to cover social care expenses if needed post-retirement. Our research indicates that offering benefits that address both retirement income supplementation and social care funding in a combined approach is appealing to consumers and could help overcome behavioural barriers to planning for social care. As with established defined contribution schemes, this product is designed for distribution in the workplace. Employees can contribute a portion of their earnings to their pension accounts. Employers may partially or fully match these contributions, further incentivising participation. In addition to financial support, participants will gain access to social care coordination services designed to facilitate ageing at home. These services will help retirees navigate care options, coordinate necessary support, and optimise the use of their allocated social care funds, ultimately promoting independence and well-being in later life.

Observed competitive market profit margins in property and casualty insurance have typically been higher than the capital assets pricing model adjustment for risky loss cashflows would suggest. Explanations for this difference include frictions from operating an insurance business and capital risks that are not adequately recognised and rewarded by the theory. It is proposed that the difference may instead be related to the consumption of insurance services and claim fulfilment with an additional fair profit margin evaluated using marginal utility pricing principles.

Disclosing transition plans to meet future net zero climate targets requires organisations to fundamentally move beyond traditional historical-oriented stewardship reporting towards forward-looking accountability to meet their obligations to their future shareholders and stakeholders. However, despite a range of varying requirements concerning disclosure of climate-related targets to meet the Paris Agreement, confusion remains over the appropriate form, content and standard of transition plan disclosure that are required to implement these targets. The former UK based Transition Plan Taskforce set out globally leading requirements for transition plan reporting in 2023, however the extent to which these recommendations have since been implemented has not yet been comprehensively analysed. This paper summarises the key differences between UK, European and International guidelines for transition plans and then discusses the results of an analysis of variations in transition plan reporting practices by a sample of globally large financial and industrial organisations. It is predicted that a combination of both firm-level climate risk and country-level institutional factors are associated with the propensity to produce public transition plans. The empirical results are largely supportive of these predictions. Firms with greater levels of engagement with climate risk (as proxied by the CDP score), and UK and-or EU based firms, are more likely to produce climate transition plans. The empirical results are corroborated by qualitative analysis, which compares examples of good practice transition plan reporting by a sub-sample of firms within each industry sector. It is concluded that the resulting lack of clarity by regulatory authorities, and diversity in transition plan reporting practices by globally large financial and industrial firms, may potentially result in confusion and a lack of informed decision-making by their stakeholders and policymakers concerning climate-related resilience and risk mitigation actions.

Governments all over the world are struggling to control the spiralling costs of healthcare – the UK government is no exception. Its long-term strategy includes a much greater focus on prevention: to keep people as healthy and productive as possible for longer. This paper asks whether a greater focus on prevention is a possible lifeline for the National Health Service (NHS) as is often claimed, but it also examines other benefits to society. After considering various examples of prevention and the metrics used to measure their effectiveness, we use tobacco consumption as a case study to evaluate the costs to the public purse and to wider society. We give further examples, including obesity, but in less depth. We find that whilst there are significant benefits to public expenditure, including the NHS, in both cases, these are dwarfed by wider benefits to society both in terms of tangible economic benefits and improved well-being. We offer several suggestions for improving our understanding of the effectiveness of prevention policies in general and how the Actuarial profession can contribute to this debate.

This paper provides practical guidance to UK-based financial institutions (UKFIs) that are subject to the “operational resilience” guideline requirements of the Bank of England (BoE), Prudential Regulatory Authority and Financial Conduct Authority, issued in 2021, and fully effective for 31 March 2025. It contains practical suggestions and recommendations to assist UKFIs in implementing the guidelines. The scope of the paper covers issues related to (a) overviewing the latest equivalent operational resilience guidance in other countries and internationally (b) identifying key issues related to risk culture, risk appetite, information technology, tolerance setting, risk modelling, scenario planning and customer oriented operational resilience (c) identifying a framework for operational resilience based on a thorough understanding of these parameters and (d) designing and implementing an operational resilience maturity dashboard based on a sample of large UKIFs. The study also contains recommendations for further action, including enhanced controls and operational risk management frameworks. It concludes by identifying imperative policy actions to ensure that the implementation of the guidelines is more effective.

As the population ages, the provision of adult long-term care (LTC) is one of the major challenges facing the UK and other developed nations. LTC funding for the elderly is complex, reflecting the range and level of services provided, with the total cost depending on the duration of LTC required. Institutional care settings (e.g., nursing/residential care homes) represent the most expensive form of LTC. Planning and funding for institutional LTC requires an understanding of the factors affecting the mortality (and hence duration and cost of care) of such LTC recipients. Using data provided by Bupa, one of the largest LTC providers in Britain, this paper investigates factors affecting the mortality of residents of institutional LTC facilities over the period 2016-2019. Consistent with existing research, most residents were female and had a higher average age profile compared with male residents. For those residents who died during the investigation period, the average length of stay was approximately 1.6 times longer for females relative to males. For both males and females, new residents experienced higher mortality in the first-year post admission compared to existing residents. Variations in the mortality of the residents were analysed by condition, funding status and care type on admission.

Distribution channels such as bancassurance, brokers, agents, direct online sales, and insurance aggregators have been key to ensuring premium growth for both life and non-life insurers. However in recent years, an emerging channel known as embedded insurance has started to provide insurers with a brand-new growth driver. In this paper, we first present an introduction to embedded insurance – what it is and how it will shape insurance distribution in the industry. We then introduce a framework to classify embedded insurance recommendation system. Finally, we propose a novel insurance recommendation system using supervised learning algorithms that can be applied to e-commerce platforms. This needs-based collaborative filtering technique recommends one of three insurance products that would be most appropriate for each buyer on the Olist e-commerce platform based on order-level data. Our work is relevant for actuaries in this field interested in the pricing of embedded insurance risk as well as insurers seeking to improve insurance penetration on such platforms.

This paper has been prepared by the IFoA’s Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) working party. The purpose is to raise awareness within the actuarial community and pensions industry on the wide range of design options and considerations for CDC solutions, together with a set of principles for the design work, which we believe should apply in most cases. This should also aid understanding of why different designs are better in different circumstances, and why some designs might have certain features that others would avoid.

In 1987, the United Nations Brundtland Commission defined sustainability as “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” In recent years, the sustainability agenda has grown in importance, with many countries, regulators, industries shifting to implement sustainable practices. For retirement funds this means providing a lasting income in retirement for members, whilst ensuring a positive contribution to society and the environment. Retirement funds, with long-term liabilities, are therefore well placed and can play a significant role in contributing to the overall objective. This paper explores how retirement funds in various countries are progressing this agenda. We then introduce a sustainability reporting index, which measures the breadth and quality of how retirement funds can report on pricing in social and environmental externalities in the provision of a pension promise. The sustainability reporting index includes the financial inclusion aspects of retirement funds as well as how social and environmental externalities can be factored into the running of a fund and how its assets are invested. It explores the key areas that need to be monitored, the types of data required and the types of analytics that can be used by various stakeholders. The sustainability reporting index is intended to provide a benchmark against which various stakeholders can measure the effectiveness of their approach in pricing in these externalities. Actuaries of retirement funds can use the framework to go beyond focussing purely on the financial aspects of a fund, incorporating material non-financial aspects to ensure the provision of a sustainable pension income.

We reprise some common statistical models for actuarial mortality analysis using grouped counts. We then discuss the benefits of building mortality models from the most elementary items. This has two facets. First, models are better based on the mortality of individuals, rather than groups. Second, models are better defined in continuous time, rather than over fixed intervals like a year. We show how Poisson-like likelihoods at the “macro” level are built up by product integration of sequences of infinitesimal Bernoulli trials at the “micro” level. Observed data is represented through a stochastic mortality hazard rate, and counting processes provide the natural notation for left-truncated and right-censored actuarial data, individual or age-grouped. Together these explain the “pseudo-Poisson” behaviour of survival model likelihoods.

Actuaries must model mortality to understand, manage and price risk. Continuous-time methods offer considerable practical benefits to actuaries analysing portfolio mortality experience. This paper discusses six categories of advantage: (i) reflecting the reality of data produced by everyday business practices, (ii) modelling rapid changes in risk, (iii) modelling time- and duration-varying risk, (iv) competing risks, (v) data-quality checking and (vi) management information. Specific examples are given where continuous-time models are more useful in practice than discrete-time models.

The efficient integration of outpatient (OPD) and inpatient (IPD) care is a critical challenge in modern healthcare, essential for maximising patient-centred care and resource utilisation. OPD, encompassing preventive services, routine check-ups, and chronic disease management, aims to minimise the need for hospitalisations. Conversely, IPD remains crucial for acute interventions and complex medical needs. This paper investigates the nuanced relationship between OPD and IPD: specifically, we seek to determine if increased OPD utilisation while improving overall health, leads to a reduction or increase in subsequent IPD utilisation, duration, and associated costs. We analyse anonymised data from Indian organisations providing company-sponsored OPD and IPD insurance to their employees between 2021 and 2024. By examining the correlation between OPD utilisation patterns and IPD outcomes, we aim to provide data-driven insights for effective healthcare integration strategies. Furthermore, we explore the feasibility of developing a personalised “Wellbeing Rating” derived from longitudinal OPD insurance utilisation data. This automated methodology aims to provide a continuous, dynamic health assessment, moving beyond the limitations of traditional, sporadic medical examinations by leveraging the comprehensive data inherent within insured OPD coverage.

This paper uses a two-step approach to modelling the probability of a policyholder making an auto insurance claim. We perform clustering via Gaussian mixture models and cluster-specific binary regression models. We use telematics information along with traditional auto insurance information and find that the best model incorporates telematics, without the need for dimension reduction via principal components. We also utilise the probabilistic estimates from the mixture model to account for the uncertainty in the cluster assignments. The clustering process allows for the creation of driving profiles and offers a fairer method for policyholder segmentation than when clustering is not used. By fitting separate regression models to the observations from the respective clusters, we are able to offer differential pricing, which recognises that policyholders have different exposures to risk despite having similar covariate information, such as total miles driven. The approach outlined in this paper offers an explainable and interpretable model that can compete with black box models. Our comparisons are based on a synthesised telematics data set that was emulated from a real insurance data set.

The systemic nature of climate risk is well established, but the extent may be more severe than previously understood, particularly with regard to cyber risk and economic security. Cyber security relies on the availability of insurance capital to mitigate economic security sector risks and support the reversibility of attacks. However, the cyber insurance industry is still in its infancy. Pressure on insurance capital from increasing natural disaster activity could consume the resources necessary for economic security in the cyber domain in the near term and create long-term conditions that increase the scarcity of capital to support cyber security risks. This article makes an original contribution by exploring the under-researched connection between the nexus of cyber and economic security and the climate change threat. Although the immediate pressure on economic resources for cyber security is limited, recent natural disaster activity has clearly shown that access to capital for cyber risks could come under significant pressure in the future.

We all know the importance of taking advice from the right people. In the financial services arena, good quality financial advice helps millions of people manage their money, realise their goals and achieve long-term financial security. Given the low level of financial literacy in the general population, financial advice can be seen as a necessity for millions of people. However, our brief research to date indicates that a huge advice gap has emerged in the UK following the introduction of the Retail Distribution Review in 2012. And it doesn’t look like this will get better soon. Regarding this advice gap, the FCA stated in 2023 that “the provision of financial advice is often out of reach for all but the already wealthy.” Furthermore, efforts to mitigate the advice gap are either non-existent or piecemeal at best.

The consequences of the advice gap include poor investment decisions leading to sub-optimal savings: research shows that consumers in the UK who took professional financial advice between 2001 and 2006 enjoyed an average increase in their assets of nearly £48,000 (∼20%) after ten years, compared to those who took no advice. In this paper, we consider various mechanisms to improve access to financial advice and guidance and reduce the size of the advice gap while recognising that these should be implemented under the umbrella of Consumer Duty, which should ensure that customers receive good outcomes.

Finally, in terms of financial inclusion, there is a gender and social imbalance with women and those from lower socio-economic groups less likely to access formal advice or guidance. This is where the advice gap is biggest, and some of these groups of people could benefit most from access to financial advice or guidance, particularly those groups with lower levels of financial literacy who have reduced means to start off with. Implementing measures to reduce the advice gap under the umbrella of a strong consumer duty should provide customers with the means to pay for the level of advice that they need while being confident that they are receiving the right products for their needs at the right price leading to good customer outcomes.