In this paper we study different types of planar random motions (performed with constant velocity) with three directions, defined by the vectors dj = (cos(2πj/3), sin(2πj/3)) for j = 0, 1, 2, changing at Poisson-paced times. We examine the cyclic motion (where the change of direction is deterministic), the completely uniform motion (where at each Poisson event each direction can be taken with probability ) and the symmetrically deviating case (where the particle can choose all directions except that taken before the Poisson event). For each of the above random motions we derive the explicit distribution of the position of the particle, by using an approach based on order statistics. We prove that the densities obtained are solutions of the partial differential equations governing the processes. We are also able to give the explicit distributions on the boundary and, for the case of the symmetrically deviating motion, we can write it as the distribution of a telegraph process. For the symmetrically deviating motion we use a generalization of the Bose-Einstein statistics in order to determine the distribution of the triple (N0, N1, N2) (conditional on N(t) = k, with N0 + N1 + N2 = N(t) + 1, where N(t) is the number of Poisson events in [0, t]), where Nj denotes the number of times the direction dj (j = 0, 1, 2) is taken. Possible extensions to four directions or more are briefly considered.

The gating mechanism of a single ion channel is usually modelled by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space. The state space is partitioned into two classes, termed ‘open’ and ‘closed’, and it is possible to observe only which class the process is in. In many experiments channel openings occur in bursts. This can be modelled by partitioning the closed states further into ‘short-lived’ and ‘long-lived’ closed states, and defining a burst of openings to be a succession of open sojourns separated by closed sojourns that are entirely within the short-lived closed states. There is also evidence that bursts of openings are themselves grouped together into clusters. This clustering of bursts can be described by the ratio of the variance Var (N(t)) to the mean [N(t)] of the number of bursts of openings commencing in (0, t]. In this paper two methods of determining Var (N(t))/[N(t)] and limt→∝ Var (N(t))/[N(t)] are developed, the first via an embedded Markov renewal process and the second via an augmented continuous-time Markov chain. The theory is illustrated by a numerical study of a molecular stochastic model of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor. Extensions to semi-Markov models of ion channel gating and the incorporation of time interval omission are briefly discussed.

We study a parametric class of isotropic but not necessarily stationary Poisson hyperplane tessellations in n-dimensional Euclidean space. Our focus is on the volume of the zero cell, i.e. the cell containing the origin. As a main result, we obtain an explicit formula for the variance of the volume of the zero cell in arbitrary dimensions. From this formula we deduce the asymptotic behaviour of the volume of the zero cell as the dimension goes to ∞.

A technique known as potential cost, used by Faddy [3] for assessing the operation of a dam is seen to be capable of extension to allow for

(i) a very general cost function, as is required for a multipurpose reservoir (the norm nowadays) and

(ii) the use of discounting of future costs, a very widespread accounting procedure.

Numerical results are obtained for an optimal policy based on such an assessment, and demonstrate the need for an accurate specification of the costs associated with the operation of a reservoir. As a by-product a very full description of the steady-state stochastic behaviour of the dam is obtained.

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only influence the future as long as they remain active. For example, a person spreads a contagious disease only as long as they are contagious. In this paper, we define a novel generalization of the Hawkes process that we call the ephemerally self-exciting process. In this new stochastic process, the excitement from one arrival lasts for a randomly drawn activity duration, hence the ephemerality. Our study includes exploration of the process itself as well as connections to well-known stochastic models such as branching processes, random walks, epidemics, preferential attachment, and Bayesian mixture models. Furthermore, we prove a batch scaling construction of general, marked Hawkes processes from a general ephemerally self-exciting model, and this novel limit theorem both provides insight into the Hawkes process and motivates the model contained herein as an attractive self-exciting process in its own right.

In this paper we discuss the complementary theorem applied to the typical n-tuple of a Poisson point process. The theorem was first presented by Miles in 1970 and discussed by Santaló in 1976 and, within a Palm measure framework, by Møller and Zuyev in 1996. The theorems put forward by these authors are not correct for all the examples that they present, suggesting that further consideration of their work is needed if one wishes to bring all those examples within the ambit of the complementary theorem. We give alternative analyses of the errant examples and, with a modification of the technicalities in the work of the above authors, move toward a more comprehensive complementary theorem. Some open issues still remain.

The problem of estimating the integral of a stochastic process from observations at a finite number N of sampling points has been considered by various authors. Recently, Benhenni and Cambanis (1992) studied this problem for processes with mean 0 and Hölder index K + ½, K ; ℕ These results are here extended to processes with arbitrary Hölder index. The estimators built here are linear in the observations and do not require the a priori knowledge of the smoothness of the process. If the process satisfies a Hölder condition with index s in quadratic mean, we prove that the rate of convergence of the mean square error is N2s+1 as N goes to ∞, and build estimators that achieve this rate.

Suppose X is a multidimensional diffusion process. Assume that at time zero the state of X is fully observed, but at time $T>0$ only linear combinations of its components are observed. That is, one only observes the vector $L X_T$ for a given matrix L. In this paper we show how samples from the conditioned process can be generated. The main contribution of this paper is to prove that guided proposals, introduced in [35], can be used in a unified way for both uniformly elliptic and hypo-elliptic diffusions, even when L is not the identity matrix. This is illustrated by excellent performance in two challenging cases: a partially observed twice-integrated diffusion with multiple wells and the partially observed FitzHugh–Nagumo model.

Use of one-parameter group transformations is made to obtain the transition p.d.f. of a Feller process confined between the origin and a hyperbolic-type boundary. Such a procedure, previously used by Bluman and Cole (cf., for instance, [4]), although useful for dealing with one-dimensional diffusion processes restricted between time-varying boundaries, does not appear to have been sufficiently exploited to obtain solutions to the diffusion equations associated to continuous Markov processes.

A single machine is available to process a collection J of jobs. The machine is free to switch between jobs at any time, but processing must respect a set Γof precedence constraints. Jobs evolve stochastically and earn rewards as they are processed, not otherwise. The theoretical framework of forwards induction/Gittins indexation is used to develop approaches to strategy evaluation for quite general (J,Γ). The performance of both forwards induction strategies and a class of quasi-myopic heuristics is assessed.

The familiar three theorems of Rényi concerning the record times in an i.i.d. sequence of random variables are extended to the record times and inter-record times of a sequence of dependent, non-identically distributed random variables defined on a finite Markov chain. These theorems are the Central Limit Theorem (C.L.T.), the Strong Law of Large Numbers (S.L.L.N.) and the Law of the Iterated Logarithm (L.I.L.). Similar results are also obtained for m-record times, inter-m-record times, and for the continuous parameter situation when observations are taken at the epochs of a Poisson process.

We study a nonparametric method for estimating the boundary measure of a compact body G ⊂ ℝd (the boundary length when d = 2 and the surface area for d = 3) in the case when this measure agrees with the corresponding Minkowski content. The estimator we consider is closely related to the one proposed in Cuevas, Fraiman and Rodríguez-Casal (2007). Our method relies on two sets of random points, drawn inside and outside the set G, with different sampling intensities. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained under some shape hypotheses on the set G. Some applications and practical aspects are briefly discussed.

A difficulty in the application [5] of the method of polynomials as exposited by Galambos is investigated. The method, recast as the method of indicators, in a form due originally to Rényi [6], is applied to the situation of non-constant coefficients.

We consider a family of irreducible, ergodic and aperiodic Markov chains X(ε) = {X(ε)n, n ≧0} depending on a parameter ε > 0, so that the local drifts have a critical behaviour (in terms of Pakes' lemma). The purpose is to analyse the steady-state distributions of these chains (in the sense of weak convergence), when ε↓ 0. Under assumptions involving at most the existence of moments of order 2 + γ for the jumps, we show that, whenever X(0) is not ergodic, it is possible to characterize accurately these limit distributions. Connections with the gamma and uniform distributions are revealed. An application to the well-known ALOHA network is given.

In this paper we study a general class of population genetic models where the total population is divided into a number of subpopulations or types. Migration between subpopulations is fast. Extending the results of Nordborg and Krone (2002) and Sagitov and Jagers (2005), we prove, as the total population size N tends to ∞, weak convergence of the joint ancestry of a given sample of haploid individuals in the Skorokhod topology towards Kingman's coalescent with a constant change of time scale c. Our framework includes age-structured models, geographically structured models, and combinations thereof. We also allow each individual to have offspring in several subpopulations, with general dependency structures between the number of offspring of various types. As a byproduct, explicit expressions for the coalescent effective population size N/c are obtained.

A Euclidean first passage percolation model describing the competing growth between k different types of infection is considered. We focus on the long-time behavior of this multitype growth process and we derive multitype shape results related to its morphology.

We investigate queueing networks in a random environment. The impact of the evolving environment on the network is by changing service capacities (upgrading and/or degrading, breakdown, repair) when the environment changes its state. On the other side, customers departing from the network may enforce the environment to jump immediately. This means that the environment is nonautonomous and therefore results in a rather complex two-way interaction, especially if the environment is not itself Markov. To react to the changes of the capacities we implement randomised versions of the well-known deterministic rerouteing schemes 'skipping' (jump-over protocol) and `reflection' (repeated service, random direction). Our main result is an explicit expression for the joint stationary distribution of the queue-lengths vector and the environment which is of product form.

We study the λ-classification of absorbing birth-and-death processes, giving necessary and sufficient conditions for such processes to be λ-transient, λ-null recurrent and λ-positive recurrent.

This paper introduces a new graph constructed from a point process. The idea is to connect a point with its nearest neighbour, then to the second nearest and continue this process until the point belongs to the interior of the convex hull of these nearest neighbours. The number of such neighbours is called the degree of a point. We derive the distribution of the degree of the typical point in a Poisson process, prove a central limit theorem for the sum of degrees, and propose an edge-corrected estimator of the distribution of the degree that is unbiased for a stationary Poisson process. Simulation studies show that this degree is a useful concept that allows the separation of clustering and repulsive behaviour of point processes.

Let η = (η1,…,ηn) be a positive random vector. If its coordinates ηi and ηj are exchangeable, i.e. the distribution of η is invariant with respect to the swap πij of its ith and jth coordinates, then Ef(η) = Ef(πijη) for all integrable functions f. In this paper we study integrable random vectors that satisfy this identity for a particular family of functions f, namely those which can be written as the positive part of the scalar product 〈u, η〉 with varying weights u. In finance such functions represent payoffs from exchange options with η being the random part of price changes, while from the geometric point of view they determine the support function of the so-called zonoid of η. If the expected values of such payoffs are πij-invariant, we say that η is ij-swap-invariant. A full characterisation of the swap-invariance property and its relationship to the symmetries of expected payoffs of basket options are obtained. The first of these results relies on a characterisation theorem for integrable positive random vectors with equal zonoids. Particular attention is devoted to the case of asset prices driven by Lévy processes. Based on this, concrete semi-static hedging techniques for multi-asset barrier options, such as weighted barrier swap options, weighted barrier quanto-swap options, or certain weighted barrier spread options, are suggested.