We consider an extension of the Poisson hail model where the service speed is either 0 or ∞ at each point of the Euclidean space. We use and develop tools pertaining to sub-additive ergodic theory in order to establish shape theorems for the growth of the ice-heap under light tail assumptions on the hailstone characteristics. The asymptotic shape depends on the statistics of the hailstones, the intensity of the underlying Poisson point process, and on the geometrical properties of the zero speed set.

In the war of attrition (wa), introduced by Maynard Smith (1974), two contestants play values from [0, ∞), the individual playing the longer value winning a fixed prize V, and both incurring a loss equal to the lesser of the two values. Thus the payoff, E(x, y) to an animal playing x against one playing y, is A more general form (Bishop and Cannings (1978)) has and it was demonstrated that with and there exists a unique evolutionarily stable strategy (ess), which is to choose a random value from a specified density function on [0, ∞). Results were also obtained for strategy spaces [0, s] and [0, s).

Parker's model (or the Scotch Auction) for a contest between two competitors has been studied by Rose (1978). He considers a form of the model in which every pure strategy is playable, and shows that there is no evolutionarily stable strategy (ess). In this paper, in order to discover more about the behaviour of strategies under the model, we shall assume that there are only a finite number of playable pure strategies I1, I2, ···, In where Ij is the strategy ‘play value mj′ and m1 < m2 < ··· < mn. The payoff matrix A for the contest is then given by where V is the reward for winning the contest, C is a constant added to ensure that each entry in A is non-negative (see Bishop and Cannings (1978)), and E[Ii, Ij] is the expected payoff for playing Ii against Ij. We also assume that A is regular (Taylor and Jonker (1978)) i.e. that all its rows are independent.

In Michel and Paroux (2003) the authors proposed a new proof of a well-known convergence result for the scaled elementary connected vacant component in the high intensity Boolean model towards the Crofton cell of the Poisson hyperplane process (see, e.g. Hall (1985)). In this paper we investigate the second-order term in this convergence when the two-dimensional Boolean model and the Poisson line process are coupled on the same probability space. We consider the particular case where the grains are discs with random radii. A precise coupling between the Boolean model and the Poisson line process is first established. A result of directional convergence in distribution for the difference of the two sets involved is then derived. Eventually, we show the convergence of the process, measuring the difference between the two random sets, once rescaled, as a function of the direction.

Radix Sort is a sorting algorithm based on analyzing digital data. We study the number of swaps made by Radix Select (a one-sided version of Radix Sort) to find an element with a randomly selected rank. This kind of grand average provides a smoothing over all individual distributions for specific fixed-order statistics. We give an exact analysis for the grand mean and an asymptotic analysis for the grand variance, obtained by poissonization, the Mellin transform, and depoissonization. The digital data model considered is the Bernoulli(p). The distributions involved in the swaps experience a phase change between the biased cases (p ≠ ½) and the unbiased case (p = ½). In the biased cases, the grand distribution for the number of swaps (when suitably scaled) converges to that of a perpetuity built from a two-point distribution. The tool for this proof is contraction in the Wasserstein metric space, and identifying the limit as the fixed-point solution of a distributional equation. In the unbiased case the same scaling for the number of swaps gives a limiting constant in probability.

We consider homogeneous STIT tessellations Y in the ℓ-dimensional Euclidean space ℝℓ and show the triviality of the tail σ-algebra. This is a sharpening of the mixing result by Lachièze-Rey (2001).

Recent progress in microdissection and in DNA sequencing has facilitated the subsampling of multi-focal cancers in organs such as the liver in several hundred spots, helping to determine the pattern of mutations in each of these spots. This has led to the construction of genealogies of the primary, secondary, tertiary, and so forth, foci of the tumor. These studies have led to diverse conclusions concerning the Darwinian (selective) or neutral evolution in cancer. Mathematical models of the development of multi-focal tumors have been devised to support these claims. We offer a model for the development of a multi-focal tumor: it is a mathematically rigorous refinement of a model of Ling et al. (2015). Guided by numerical studies and simulations, we show that the rigorous model, in the form of an infinite-type branching process, displays distributions of tumor size which have heavy tails and moments that become infinite in finite time. To demonstrate these points, we obtain bounds on the tails of the distributions of the process and an infinite series expansion for the first moments. In addition to its inherent mathematical interest, the model is corroborated by recent literature on apparent super-exponential growth in cancer metastases.

By using large devaitions theory, we give asymptotic formulas for the transient blocking probabilities of M/M/N/N and M (with finite Poissonian sources) M/N/N queues.

The paper discussed the value of the ‘Optimum Model” in describing the inter-relationship between metric characters and natural fitness. This model represents one extreme of a whole spectrum of models. It can be used to predict changes in the mean of the character under natural selection, but the basic premises underlying such use are not well understood.

We consider two distinct models of particle systems. In the first we have an infinite collection of identical Markov processes starting at random throughout Euclidean space. In the second a random sign is associated with each process. An interaction mechanism is introduced in each case via intersection local times, and the fluctuation theory of the systems studied as the processes become dense in space. In the first case the fluctuation theory always turns out to be Gaussian, regardless of the order of the intersections taken to introduce the interaction mechanism. In the second case, an interaction mechanism based on kth order intersections leads to a fluctuation theory akin to a :φ k: Euclidean quantum field theory. We consider the consequences of these results and relate them to different models previously studied in the literature.

This paper reviews the principal properties of stationary Poisson processes of k-dimensional linear affine subvarieties in a d-dimensional vector space, and outlines basic results for the estimation of parameters from a single incomplete realization of the process.

Given an indexed family of rate functions, we construct a family of independent random variables such that their minimum and the corresponding index form a marked point having the same rates. If the rates have common discontinuities, the random variables are conditionally independent, given a random allocation of these jumps. Between any two adjacent points of a marked point process there is a similar structure. Coherent functions in system lifetime theory provide examples.

Non-identifiability of multivariate lifetime distributions from mortality data is interpreted in this context.

Fractal percolation exhibits a dramatic topological phase transition, changing abruptly from a dust-like set to a system-spanning cluster. The transition points are unknown and difficult to estimate. In many classical percolation models the percolation thresholds have been approximated well using additive geometric functionals, known as intrinsic volumes. Motivated by the question of whether a similar approach is possible for fractal models, we introduce corresponding geometric functionals for the fractal percolation process F. They arise as limits of expected functionals of finite approximations of F. We establish the existence of these limit functionals and obtain explicit formulas for them as well as for their finite approximations.

We introduce a unified framework for solving first passage times of time-homogeneous diffusion processes. Using potential theory and perturbation theory, we are able to deduce closed-form truncated probability densities, as asymptotics or approximations to the original first passage time densities, for single-side level crossing problems. The framework is applicable to diffusion processes with continuous drift functions; in particular, for bounded drift functions, we show that the perturbation series converges. In the present paper, we demonstrate examples of applying our framework to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, Bessel, exponential-Shiryaev, and hypergeometric diffusion processes (the latter two being previously studied by Dassios and Li (2018) and Borodin (2009), respectively). The purpose of this paper is to provide a fast and accurate approach to estimating first passage time densities of various diffusion processes.

We investigate the supports of extremal martingale measures with prespecified marginals in a two-period setting. First, we establish in full generality the equivalence between the extremality of a given measure Q and the denseness in $L^1(Q)$ of a suitable linear subspace, which can be seen in a financial context as the set of all semistatic trading strategies. Moreover, when the supports of both marginals are countable, we focus on the slightly stronger notion of weak exact predictable representation property (WEP) and provide two combinatorial sufficient conditions, called the ‘2-link property’ and ‘full erasability’, on how the points in the supports are linked to each other for granting extremality. When the support of the first marginal is a finite set, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the WEP to hold in terms of the new concepts of 2-net and deadlock. Finally, we study the relation between cycles and extremality.

We study the impact of a hard selective sweep on the genealogy of partially linked neutral loci in the vicinity of the positively selected allele. We consider a sexual population of stochastically varying size and, focusing on two neighboring loci, derive an approximate formula for the neutral genealogy of a sample of individuals taken at the end of the sweep. Individuals are characterized by ecological parameters depending on their genetic type, and governing their growth rate and interactions with other individuals (competition). As a consequence, the `fitness' of an individual depends on the population state and is not an intrinsic characteristic of individuals. We provide a deep insight into the dynamics of the mutant and wild-type populations during the different stages of a selective sweep.

In, Tory and Pickard show that a simple subclass of unilateral AR processes identifies with Gaussian Pickard random fields on Z2. First, we extend this result to the whole class of unilateral AR processes, by showing that they all satisfy a Pickard-type property, under which correlation matching and maximum entropy properties are assessed. Then, it is established that the Pickard property provides the ‘missing’ equations that complement the two-dimensional Yule-Walker equations, in the sense that the conjunction defines a one-to-one mapping between the set of AR parameters and a set of correlations. It also implies Markov chain conditions that allow exact evaluation of the likelihood and an exact sampling scheme on finite lattices.

We study solvency of insurers in a comprehensive model where various economic factors affect the capital developments of the companies. The main interest is in the impact of real growth to ruin probabilities. The volume of the business is allowed to increase or decrease. In the latter case, the study is focused on run-off companies. Our main results give sharp asymptotic estimates for infinite-time ruin probabilities.