Let {Xn}n∈ℕ be a Markov chain on a measurable space with transition kernel P, and let The Markov kernel P is here considered as a linear bounded operator on the weighted-supremum space associated with V. Then the combination of quasicompactness arguments with precise analysis of eigenelements of P allows us to estimate the geometric rate of convergence ρV(P) of {Xn}n∈ℕ to its invariant probability measure in operator norm on A general procedure to compute ρV(P) for discrete Markov random walks with identically distributed bounded increments is specified.

Most finite spatial point process models specified by a density are locally stable, implying that the Papangelou intensity is bounded by some integrable function β defined on the space for the points of the process. It is possible to superpose a locally stable spatial point process X with a complementary spatial point process Y to obtain a Poisson process X ⋃ Y with intensity function β. Underlying this is a bivariate spatial birth-death process (Xt, Yt) which converges towards the distribution of (X, Y). We study the joint distribution of X and Y, and their marginal and conditional distributions. In particular, we introduce a fast and easy simulation procedure for Y conditional on X. This may be used for model checking: given a model for the Papangelou intensity of the original spatial point process, this model is used to generate the complementary process, and the resulting superposition is a Poisson process with intensity function β if and only if the true Papangelou intensity is used. Whether the superposition is actually such a Poisson process can easily be examined using well-known results and fast simulation procedures for Poisson processes. We illustrate this approach to model checking in the case of a Strauss process.

Dimension reduction of multivariate data was developed by Y. Guan for point processes with Gaussian random fields as covariates. The generalization to fibre and surface processes is straightforward. In inverse regression methods, we suggest slicing based on geometrical marks. An investigation of the properties of this method is presented in simulation studies of random marked sets. In a refined model for dimension reduction, the second-order central subspace is analyzed in detail. A real data pattern is tested for independence of a covariate.

We are interested in estimating the intensity parameter of a Boolean model of discs (the bombing model) from a single realization. To do so, we derive the conditional distribution of the points (germs) of the underlying Poisson process. We demonstrate how to apply coupling from the past to generate samples from this distribution, and use the samples thus obtained to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator of the intensity. We discuss and compare two methods: one based on a Monte Carlo approximation of the likelihood function, the other a stochastic version of the EM algorithm.

Consider a set of n vertices, where each vertex has a location in $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is sampled uniformly from the unit cube in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and a weight associated to it. Construct a random graph by placing edges independently for each vertex pair with a probability that is a function of the distance between the locations and the vertex weights.

Under appropriate integrability assumptions on the edge probabilities that imply sparseness of the model, after appropriately blowing up the locations, we prove that the local limit of this random graph sequence is the (countably) infinite random graph on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with vertex locations given by a homogeneous Poisson point process, having weights which are independent and identically distributed copies of limiting vertex weights. Our set-up covers many sparse geometric random graph models from the literature, including geometric inhomogeneous random graphs (GIRGs), hyperbolic random graphs, continuum scale-free percolation, and weight-dependent random connection models.

We prove that the limiting degree distribution is mixed Poisson and the typical degree sequence is uniformly integrable, and we obtain convergence results on various measures of clustering in our graphs as a consequence of local convergence. Finally, as a byproduct of our argument, we prove a doubly logarithmic lower bound on typical distances in this general setting.

We consider a class of impulse control problems for general underlying strong Markov processes on the real line, which allows for an explicit solution. The optimal impulse times are shown to be of a threshold type and the optimal threshold is characterised as a solution of a (typically nonlinear) equation. The main ingredient we use is a representation result for excessive functions in terms of expected suprema.

In this paper, we refine the concept of Γ-variation up to second order, and we give a characterization of this type of asymptotic behaviour. We apply our results to obtain uniform rates of convergence in the weak convergence of renormalised sample maxima to the double exponential distribution. In a second application we derive a rate of convergence result for the Hill estimator.

In this paper we compute the absorbing time Tn of an n-dimensional discrete-time Markov chain comprising n components, each with an absorbing state and evolving in mutual exclusion. We show that the random absorbing time Tn is well approximated by a deterministic time tn that is the first time when a fluid approximation of the chain approaches the absorbing state at a distance 1 / n. We provide an asymptotic expansion of tn that uses the spectral decomposition of the kernel of the chain as well as the asymptotic distribution of Tn, relying on extreme values theory. We show the applicability of this approach with three different problems: the coupon collector, the erasure channel lifetime, and the coupling times of random walks in high-dimensional spaces.

We consider a discrete-time branching random walk in the boundary case, where the associated random walk is in the domain of attraction of an α-stable law with 1 < α < 2. We prove that the derivative martingale Dn converges to a nontrivial limit D∞ under some regular conditions. We also study the additive martingale Wn and prove that n1/αWn converges in probability to a constant multiple of D∞.

The problem treated is that of controlling a process with values in [0, a]. The non-anticipative controls (µ(t), σ(t)) are selected from a set C(x) whenever X(t–) = x and the non-decreasing process A(t) is chosen by the controller subject to the condition where y is a constant representing the initial amount of fuel. The object is to maximize the probability that X(t) reaches a. The optimal process is determined when the function has a unique minimum on [0, a] and satisfies certain regularity conditions. The optimal process is a combination of ‘timid play' in which fuel is used gradually in the form of local time at 0, and ‘bold play' in which all the fuel is used at once.

In this paper we study the random walk on the hypercube (ℤ / 2ℤ)n which at each step flips k randomly chosen coordinates. We prove that the mixing time for this walk is of the order (n / k)logn. We also prove that if k = o(n) then the walk exhibits cutoff at (n / 2k)logn with window n / 2k.

We study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filter approach for the estimation of hidden Markov models. In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into multiple shorter portions, with an estimation technique based upon a separate particle filter in each portion. The partitioning facilitates the use of parallel processing, which reduces the wall-clock computational time. Based upon this approach, we introduce new estimators of the latent states and likelihood which have similar or better variance properties compared to estimators derived from standard particle filters. We show that the likelihood function estimator is unbiased, and show asymptotic normality of the underlying estimators.

We transpose the ordinary differential equation method (used for decreasing stepsize stochastic algorithms) to a dynamical system method to study dynamical systems disturbed by a noise decreasing to zero. We prove that such an algorithm does not fall into a regular trap if the noise is exciting in an unstable direction.

Distance measurements are useful tools in stochastic geometry. For a Boolean model Z in ℝd, the classical contact distribution functions allow the estimation of important geometric parameters of Z. In two previous papers, several types of generalized contact distributions have been investigated and applied to stationary and nonstationary Boolean models. Here, we consider random sets Z which are generated as the union sets of Poisson processes X of k-flats, k ∈ {0, …, d-1}, and study distances from a fixed point or a fixed convex body to Z. In addition, we also consider the distances from a given flat or a flag consisting of flats to the individual members of X and investigate the associated process of nearest points in the flats of X. In particular, we discuss to which extent the directional distribution of X is determined by this point process. Some of our results are presented for more general stationary processes of flats.

We generalise the work of Cramér and Leadbetter, Ylvisaker and Ito on the level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process to multivariate processes. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the expected number of crossings E(C) of the boundary of a region of ℝp by a stationary vector stochastic process are obtained, along with an explicit formula for E(C) in the Gaussian case. A rigorous proof of Belyaev's integral formula for the factorial moments of the number of exits from a region of ℝp is given for a class of processes which includes Gaussian processes having a finite second order spectral moment matrix. Applications to χ2 processes are briefly considered.

The almost sure convergence of the maximum of a strictly stationary sequence is studied. We show that, if a particular mixing condition, related to the asymptotic independence of maxima defined by O'Brien, is satisfied, then the maximum behaves asymptotically like the quantile F←(1-1/n) whenever the marginal tail distribution decreases quickly enough. A necessary condition for the almost sure convergence of the maximum is derived. Applications are also discussed.

The dynamical aspects of single channel gating can be modelled by a Markov renewal process, with states aggregated into two classes corresponding to the receptor channel being open or closed, and with brief sojourns in either class not detected. This paper is concerned with the relation between the amount of time, for a given record, in which the channel appears to be open compared to the amount in which it is actually open and the difference in their proportions; this may be used to obtain information on the unobserved actual process from the observed one. Results, with extensions, on exponential families have been applied to obtain relevant generating functions and asymptotic normal distributions, including explicit forms for the parameters. Numerical results are given as illustration in special cases.

An rth-order extremal process Δ(r) = (Δ(r)t)t≥0 is a continuous-time analogue of the rth partial maximum sequence of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. Studying maxima in continuous time gives rise to the notion of limiting properties of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0. Here we describe aspects of the small-time behaviour of Δ(r) by characterising its upper and lower classes relative to a nonstochastic nondecreasing function bt > 0 with limt↓bt = 0. We are then able to give an integral criterion for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0, r = 1, 2, . . ., or, equivalently, as it turns out, for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(1) as t ↓ 0.

Learning from Matheron's representation (1973), and using the increment vector (PIV) methodology introduced by Cressie (1988) and developed by Chen and Anderson (1994), this paper presents a theory for the representation and decomposition of integrated stationary time series and gives some applications.