Keywords

African climate; the Sahel; climate change; scenarios; climate variability

Abstarct

Understanding and predicting temporal variations in African climate has become the major challenge facing African and African-specialist climate scientists in recent years. Whilst seasonal climate forecasts have taken great strides forward, we remain unsure of the ultimate causes of the lower frequency decadal and multi-decadal rainfall variability that affects some African climate regimes, especially in the Sahel region. This work examining the variability of African climate, especially rainfall, is set in the wider context of our emerging understanding of human influences on the larger, global-scale climate. Africa will be no exception to experiencing these human-induced changes in climate, although much work remains to be done in trying to isolate those aspects of African climate variability that are ‘natural’ from those that are related to human influences. African climate scientists face a further challenge in that it is in this continent that the role of land-cover changes in modifying regional climates is perhaps most marked. It is for these reasons – large internal climate variability and the confounding role of land-cover change – that climate change ‘predictions’ (or scenarios) for Africa based on greenhouse gas warming remain at a low level of confidence. Nevertheless, it is of considerable interest to try and scope the magnitude of the problem that the enhanced greenhouse effect may pose for African climate and for African resource managers.

Keywords

Africa; population pressure and land resources; environmental degradation; productivity; natural resources; sustainable development

Abstarct

The nexus between population growth and the demand for agricultural land in the different regions of Africa is examined. Given present trends, the demand for agricultural land may increase by about 75% in 2025 and by more than threefold when Africa's population stabilizes after 2100. A comparison is made between the past demand for agricultural land and the decrease in forest area. In most regions of Africa, there is a close correlation between these two factors. Therefore, without active intervention, the future enlarged agricultural estate will be at the expense of high forests and woodlands. By the time the population stabilizes, Africa could lose half its forests. At present, there is a surplus of wood compared to demand, and this surplus could be used to expand rural opportunities. However, in nearly every country there are pockets of shortages. These pockets will expand if little is done to improve agricultural and silvicultural productivity. Ways of improving productivity are discussed, especially with farm trees; this will release the pressure on forest areas. Also, strategies for meeting demand in wood deficit areas are specified. Land-use change targets are given based on various productivity assumptions and increased food intakes. If the forecasted gains are made, coupled with the expanded use of renewable resources, then the demand for extra farmland may increase by only one-third by 2025 and by one-half when the population stabilizes.

Keywords

El Niño; La Niña; ENSO; Southern Oscillation Index; African rainfall climatology; vulnerability; impacts; Africa

Abstarct

El Niño and La Niña phenomena are simply referred to as the warm and cold ENSO phases respectively. ENSO events generally last from 3 to 6 seasons, sometimes as long as 24 months, and tend to recur every 3 to 7 years. The warming/cooling (El Niño/La Niña) of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are known to lead to worldwide anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the circulation of the ocean currents. The most significant influence is found in the tropics, but such influences have been found to vary significantly from place to place and from season to season, as well as with the evolution pattern of the ENSO phases. Although ENSO impacts are strongest in the Pacific Ocean region, past records in Africa show that some severe droughts and floods that have been observed over parts of the continent have been associated with ENSO events. As elucidated in this paper, the impacts of some of these extreme droughts and floods have seriously affected the social and economic development of various countries in the African continent.

INTRODUCTION

The El Niño and La Niña phenomena have, in recent years, become widely known by the public at large around the world. These phenomena have a long historical base in Latin America.

Keywords

Capacity-building; climate change; Conference of the Parties; greenhouse gas inventories; impacts; vulnerability and adaptation assessment; greenhouse gas mitigation in Africa; national communications; technology transfer; education, training and public awareness

Abstarct

Capacity-building has long been recognized by African countries as one of the principal issues to be urgently addressed in order to support national and regional initiatives to effectively implement the provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in ways that contribute to their efforts aimed at achieving sustainable development. This chapter briefly outlines the ecological and socio-economic impacts of projected climate change on Africa, and identifies the key capacity-building needs and concerns of African countries as described in their national communications, as well as in published literature. These needs include the capacity to (i) prepare national inventories of greenhouse gases; (ii) assess impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; (iii) undertake greenhouse gas mitigation analysis in major sectors of the economies; (iv) elaborate on education, training and public awareness programmes; and (v) cooperate in the development and transfer of climate friendly technologies. Other needs relate to capacities to mainstream the adaptation to climate change and thereby integrate the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures within the framework of implementing national sustainable development plans and strategies.

Keywords

Biomass energy; sub-Saharan Africa; flowchart; deforestation; health; fuel switching

Abstarct

In sub-Saharan Africa available evidence suggests that biomass use for energy has increased roughly in proportion to population growth. With urbanization the biomass energy sector is becoming more commercialized, and consumption of charcoal is increasing (which leads to higher biomass consumption, given the low conversion efficiencies in most charcoal production). Localized fuel scarcity and resource degradation has occurred, but biomass scarcity has been exaggerated in the past in macro-level studies, which overlooked many non-forest sources of biomass fuel. National studies of biomass availability and use in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, Botswana, Rwanda, South Africa and Uganda indicate that large unused biomass resources exist, and that scarcity often leads to more efficient use and fuel-switching to other forms of biomass rather than to fossil fuels. Consumption of biomass energy in sub-Saharan Africa is not expected to fall in the near future. Therefore there is an urgent need for recognition of the opportunities and problems which dependence on biomass energy represents. The resource is large and potentially sustainable, but biomass use creates health problems and can cause environmental degradation. National and regional energy planning and policies must take into account the importance of biomass energy supply and use, and seek to modernize the sector so that problems can be minimized.

Keywords

Energy/environment policy, GHG emissions, climate change, management of energy resources, renewable energy, energy efficiency, fuel switching to natural gas, energy prices reform, market barriers, Egypt.

Abstarct

It is of crucial importance to Egypt and most developing countries to make fundamental changes in the energy policies, so as to comply with environmental requirements and ensure a sustainable path for development. Without environmentally sound energy policies, the production and consumption of energy could be a major source of carbon dioxide emissions, leading potentially to global climate change, in addition to other adverse local environmental impacts and negative effects on human health.

This paper outlines Egypt's energy/environment policy framework. It highlights the energy situation in Egypt in terms of supply and demand, as well as energy and economy linkages through the year 2010. It demonstrates a developing country's success story of better management of indigenous energy resources while striving to meet domestic energy demand and secure sufficient oil exports earnings that are needed to finance economic development. With 93.5% dependence on fossil fuels, the environmental impacts of the current energy systems are important. The paper describes the policy framework within which a large number of policy initiatives have been successfully implemented to mitigate such impacts.

Energy efficiency, switching from petroleum products to natural gas, promotion of renewable energy development and use, and energy pricing reform are the key elements of this strategic policy framework.

The reduction of the snowcap of the mighty Mount Kilimanjaro by four fifths over the last 90 years is one of the most immediately discernible impacts of climate change in Africa, and irrefutable evidence of what is happening to our planet. Under the present trends, scientists tell us, the remaining ice fields on the mountain are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020 (see Thompson et al. (2002): Science, 298, 589–593). If this were the case, there would be significant implications for the water resources of the African countries that are dependent on the melted water coming from the mountain. The integrity of already fragile ecosystems with their endemic species would suffer. In addition, a tropical peak without the snowcap would be far less attractive to the tourists who are the source of income for many local people.

Climate change will hit all nations directly or indirectly and its warming impact is likely to be strongest in areas near the poles. However, of all continents, human suffering as a consequence of climate change may well be most dramatic in Africa. This region has probably never faced in its history as formidable a challenge as adaptation to climate change, requiring the migration or transformation of not only natural (often already endangered) ecosystems, but also of agricultural production systems. The Africans can do little themselves to prevent the climate change, which has not, for the most part, been caused by them.

Introduction

While typically unpriced, recreational time is often the most valuable part of any day (Broadhurst, 2001). This chapter discusses applications of the CV and TC methods to the valuation of unpriced, open-access recreation in UK woodlands. The following section presents a review of the existing literature, after which we describe analyses undertaken as part of this research. We conducted three separate woodland recreation valuation studies, all in the UK: two in Thetford Forest, East Anglia, and one in and around Wantage, Oxfordshire. These are subsequently referred to as the Thetford 1, Thetford 2 and Wantage studies. The design of these studies reflected both the previous findings and research objectives set out in Chapter 2 (i.e. to investigate the validity and sensitivity of measures) and the desire to obtain values which were of use within our wider CBA. In Chapter 4 we consider the transferability of these findings to our wider study area of Wales.

Review of the literature

In the UK there have been more applications of the CV and TC methods to the evaluation of woodland recreation than of any other open-access recreational good. A review of the literature identified over forty relevant papers containing over a hundred monetary evaluation estimates (see details in Bateman, 1996). These included studies calculating national-level values, estimates based on household once-and-for-all payments and various other measures which were of little use in our wider study.

Introduction

This research draws upon a series of interrelated studies designed to provide an improved cost-benefit analysis of a proposed conversion of land use out of conventional agriculture and into woodland. The analysis covers a number of diverse questions and is necessarily complex. Consequently a number of conclusions can be drawn. To simplify this process, we first review the achievements of this research before considering, in the subsequent section, the problems of the study and ongoing work. This is followed by our concluding comments.

Summary of research

As reviewed in the opening chapter of this volume, woodland produces a variety of market-priced and non-market benefits and costs. The first phase of this research was concerned with monetary valuation of one of the principal non-market benefits, woodland recreation. Given the open-access nature of this good, which produces no internal return to the land-owner but is of significant social value, we were forced to rely upon non-market valuation methods. Chapter 2 reviewed these methods, highlighting the theoretical appropriateness of both the contingent valuation (CV) and travel cost (TC) techniques. The chapter also provided a theoretical analysis of the values elicited by these methods.

Chapter 3 opened with an appraisal of UK applications of these methods to the valuation of woodland recreation. This review raised a number of interesting issues; for example, studies failed to identify any significant link between recreational values and tree species.

Much of environmental change is driven by land use change. To some, the whole history of economic and social development reflects the exchange of one form of asset – ‘natural’ landscape – for another form of asset – man-made capital. Certainly, viewed from a global perspective, there is a one-to-one relationship between the decline of forested land and the increase in land devoted to crops and pasture. The factors giving rise to land use change are many and varied. But one of the most powerful is the comparative economic returns to ‘converted’ land relative to the economic returns to ‘natural’ land. In short, the issue is conservation versus conversion, and this is a conflict that is invariably resolved in the favour of conversion. This systematic erosion of the natural capital base is what worries environmentalists, a term I take to embrace anyone with the slightest modicum of concern about what humankind is doing to its own environment and its fellow species. Acting on that concern takes several forms, as everyone knows. Some want to lie down in front of the bulldozers, protest to their Members of Parliament, write to the newspapers, appeal to some moral principle or other. For the most part quietly, environmental economists have sought a different route. First, they observe that the bias towards conversion arises from all kinds of incentive systems, including, for example, subsidies to agriculture or monocultural forestry.

Introduction

In this chapter we assess both the social and private value of timber production. This is the major market-priced output of woodland. Furthermore, while recent policy statements from both the National Assembly for Wales (1999, 2001a; Forestry Commission (FC), 2001a, b) and UK government departments (Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR), 2000) emphasise the need to adopt a holistic approach to managing woodlands, explicitly recognising their multipurpose nature, timber production remains, nevertheless, a key element of such a strategy, playing an important role in rural economies (FC, 1998).

The economic and policy imperative to include timber production within any cost-benefit analysis of land use change involving forestry is therefore clear. However, the estimated value of this production depends crucially upon the real price of timber. Because plantation returns are long delayed, any (even small) change in real prices will have a major impact upon net present value (NPV) sums. In order to assess this, the chapter opens with a brief history of commercial forestry in the UK designed to acquaint the reader with the recent, major and trend-breaking increase in domestic timber supply. In the subsequent section both the supply and demand sides of the UK market are modelled so that a balanced view on future prices can be derived. These conclusions are reinforced by time-series analyses of price movements.

Introduction

Having concluded our assessment of the monetary value of land under forestry we now turn to consider the prime opportunity cost of such a decision, namely the value of the major land use in Wales: agriculture. This chapter presents models of net agricultural income received by farmers (referred to as the ‘farm-gate’ value) and its social or ‘shadow price’ equivalent which adjusts for the various subsidies and other transfer payments which characterise UK agriculture. As before, a GIS-based approach is used to generate maps of such values for the entire study area. This permits subsequent comparison of total woodland values with those for agriculture (see Chapter 9).

The following section presents the necessary policy background. This establishes the broad and progressively strengthening economic case for the transfer of at least some land out of conventional agriculture and into alternative land uses and overviews the theoretical and methodological basis of our analysis. An overview of developments since our 1990 study period is also presented, showing that there has been a clear worsening of the economic situation for farmers in our study area, which means that our analysis will provide a conservative estimate of the potential for land use change from farming to forestry.

The following two sections outline the GIS-based methodology employed and discuss the data. For modelling purposes, farms in the sample were clustered into distinct groups as explained in the next section, which also reviews definitions of farm-gate and shadow value of production.