Keywords

Africa, global change research, scientific equity, climate change impacts.

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Of all the regions in the World, sub-Saharan Africa is the least well equipped to respond to the issues associated with climate change. This paper discusses the significance of climate change to African nations and the related needs and opportunities. At the centre of the discussion are the important issues, often raised by African colleagues, of scientific equity and the urgent need for investment in African scientific infrastructure to help African scientists inform and advise African governments and decision makers on the likely impacts of climate change on their nations' economy and resource base.

In most African countries, funding for global change research is a low priority compared with more immediate and pressing societal issues. However, understanding the processes and predicting the impacts of climate change on African environment and economies necessitates a series of focused scientific initiatives within the region. These initiatives will require a combination of applied biological and social science and would benefit from being led by African scientists. Some initiatives are currently underway, supported in large part by the international community. African scientists need to be true partners in these scientific endeavours, from identifying the priority research questions, to designing and implementing the research and presenting the policy implications of the results. Now more than ever, support for African science and education must be part of the national and international development portfolios for the countries of the region.

Keywords

Climate change mitigation; greenhouse gas abatement; education; community; teachers; teacher-education; Africa

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Increased population and modest economic growth are likely to result in a 10-fold increase in emissions of greenhouse gases for the African continent over the next two to three decades. If economic growth can be achieved with lower than expected fossil fuel use increases, then substantial global benefits would result. An important long-term opportunity for ‘no regrets’ action on climate change is education in both the formal (school) and informal (community) sectors. To be effective, the education programme must inform, enthuse and empower. This requires demonstration of the relevance of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies to the individual. Within the school sector, it is conceivable that a well-planned education programme aimed at improving awareness of energy minimization actions and the importance of global climate could reach 100 million school children within three to four years. Community education must be flexible and support, but not attempt to manage, existing community organizations.

INTRODUCTION

The continent of Africa, with its 50 countries and vast differences in economic, cultural, and political systems, presents enormous challenges for those charged with the implementation of sustainable development and the design of responses to the threat of climate change. The magnitude of the problem, together with this diversity, immediately raises the question – is there anything that can be said that might be common to all these countries? In detail, probably not, but there are broad principles that can be applied.

Keywords

Africa; energy; climate change; Clean Development Mechanism; sustainable development; technology transfer; capacity-building

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The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a new possibility for North-South cooperation in mitigating climate change through joint projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Much work remains to be done to clarify whether and how the CDM can meet its dual goals of contributing to sustainable development in developing countries and assisting industrialized countries meeting their commitments to emissions reduction and limitation. The purpose of this chapter is to highlight some key issues related to the development of the CDM from the perspective of African energy development, and to discuss options for addressing those issues. We begin by reviewing some key indicators of energy in Africa. We then discuss five areas within the negotiations where the design of the CDM and associated institutions can contribute to sustainable energy development in Africa: broadening the scope of CDM projects to include regional projects and institutional development; operationalizing sustainable development in project selection criteria; promoting technology transfer; ensuring a fair distribution of credits and other benefits from CDM projects; and building capacity to both implement projects and formulate enabling policy for the CDM.

INTRODUCTION

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a new possibility for North-South cooperation in mitigating climate change through joint projects.

Keywords

Stratospheric ozone layer; ozone-depleting substances; Vienna Convention; Montreal Protocol; lessons; awareness; information; education and training; stakeholders; assessment panels; incremental costs; capacity development; country programme; new technologies; technology transfer; assessment of technologies; project preparation and implementation; policy instruments

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The international agreements to protect the ozone layer - the Vienna Convention of 1985 and the Montreal Protocol of 1987, have a near universal participation and have been successful. Developing countries have implemented these agreements for the past 14 years benefiting the global environment but without adverse effects on their economic development. The countries can apply the lessons from the ozone agreements to deal with the climate change agreements.

The principal lessons are: creation of public awareness; involvement of all the stakeholders in negotiation and implementation of the agreements; active participation in the scientific and technological panels related to the agreements; understanding the new concepts such as incremental costs; capacity-building for assessment of national status, impacts, and new technologies, technology transfer and project preparation and implementation and understanding, choosing and implementing appropriate policy instruments.

INTRODUCTION

The ozone agreements – the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985) and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) – have the objective of protection of the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out the emissions of man-made ozone-depleting substances (ODS).

Keywords

Ethiopia; Main Ethiopian Rift; Late Quaternary; Holocene environment; climate; volcanism; tectonics; human impact; crater lakes; palaeosoils; sediments; pollen; diatoms; radiocarbon dates; drought; rainfall variability; ENSO; deforestation; Little Ice Age

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The environment within the Ethiopian region has been sensitive to different natural and anthropogenic factors on various timescales and during different times of the Quaternary. During the Holocene (the last 10, 000 years), the intensity of tectonics and volcanism in the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley has reduced, and their effects have been localized to marginal zones. However, climate change and variability on different timescales have been affecting the region within and outside the Rift Valley. During the twentieth century, the accelerated human impact has combined with highly variable rainfall, both on the inter-annual and inter-decadal timescales, to play a major role in limiting the availability of resources.

INTRODUCTION

Ethiopia is located in a geodynamically active zone and geographically sensitive area, Consequently, volcano-tectonism, as well as climate change and variability on different spatial and temporal scales, have affected its environment. Super-imposed on these, increasing human impact is modifying the land cover, land surface and hydrology. This chapter presents a review of the relative importance of the different environmental forcings during the Holocene (the last 10,000 years) in Ethiopia. This is a time when the major regional features of the environment, as we see them now, have been shaped.

Keywords

Climate policy; El Niño; La Niña; ENSO; small island states; vulnerability and adaptation; the Seychelles

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El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that develop in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. The strong El Niño in 1997–1998 was rapidly followed by a strong La Niña in 1998–2000. Both events caused severe economic and human losses in many parts of the world, including small island states. In the Seychelles, the El Niño event brought extreme rainfall causing flooding and landslides; and due to the elevated sea surface temperatures, severe coral bleaching occurred. On the other hand, the La Niña event brought an extended drought, resulting in acute water shortages. Both events caused profound impacts that led to economic and infrastructure losses, especially in the fisheries and tourism sectors, as well as the infrastructure on the coastal areas.

This chapter highlights the vulnerability of small island states to the extreme climatic events caused by ENSO and to the climate change, which is projected to increase the frequency of such extreme climatic events. Without appropriate observing systems and an adaptive policy framework, adaptation to such extreme climate events, which is already an extra burden on those states, will be difficult.

No environmental issue has been of such truly global magnitude as the issue of climate change. And no other global environmental issue has been so controversial, not because of lack of scientific knowledge but rather because it is a result of every human action and will have a direct impact on all human endeavour everywhere, North and South, East and West.

Some hide behind the lack of scientific certainty, making it an excuse not to act to deal with a major potential catastrophe. As a scientist, I have never seen any scientific subject where scientists agreed on all its aspects one hundred per cent. We go by the majority – not just a simple majority, but a real, solid majority. And that is what we have now.

We now know enough to indicate that the poor developing countries are the least equipped to adapt, on their own, to climate change, although most of them played, and will certainly continue to play, an insignificant role in causing it.

African countries are among the poorest of the developing countries. Most of the least developed countries are in Africa.

So, this book is really coming at the right time, and it presents the issues of relevance to Africa – sea-level rise to a continent surrounded by two oceans and two seas; energy in a continent where the most used source of energy is firewood (destroying a carbon sink and an oxygen generator and a soil stabilizer for a continent with large areas of marginal soil); and desertification in a continent suffering from repeated droughts and hard-hitting desertification problems.

The key to food security is regular access to food, in a context where many factors seem to be competing to make its supply scarce and irregular. In Africa, as in most of the world, the variability of climate over seasons, years and decades, has been a dominant factor. This was dramatically illustrated by the latest drought episode in the West African Sahel between the 1960s and the late 1980s. Some papers recently published suggest a link between the drought and atmospheric pollution in the developed world, a reminder that human activities can affect climate, locally and globally, at many scales.

Over the last two decades, war has overtaken climate fluctuation as the dominant factor in food insecurity, particularly in Africa where civil unrest and war have killed people, driven them off their land and led to the creation of large refugee settlements. However, even humanitarian crises must be seen in their climatic context, as many tense and unstable situations have been created by high food prices due to drought. Many farmers are forced off the land at harvest or planting times, and many choose to grow cassava, safely concealed in the ground, rather than the conspicuous maize cobs that are so attractive to refugees and soldiers. Compared with cereals, cassava is drought resistant but poor in proteins, so that some farmers' attempts to ensure food production actually contribute to malnutrition.

Keywords

Climate variability; drought; coping mechanisms/strategies; biodiversity; indigenous plants; adaptation policies; farmer households; drylands; Kitui; Kenya

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This chapter discusses household coping mechanisms during the 1996 drought in Kitui, a dryland agricultural area in Kenya. The 1996 drought and its effects on farmer households are described. Most households exhausted their food stocks several months before the next harvest was due in 1997. The alternative sources of food and income to which most households turned are discussed. Broadly speaking, there are two types of coping mechanisms: first, sources of food or income that are rated highly by interviewee households but to which few households have access; and second, sources of food or income to which most households resort, but which are not highly rated. The latter are often informal activities. Indigenous plants are input raw material in most household coping mechanisms, in particular in informal activities. Therefore, they are an important resource for the majority of households that do not have access to more formal sources of food and income during drought. There are, however, several constraints to indigenous plant-based activities. Unreliable sales and low profits contribute to their low status. Decreasing natural vegetation may limit the currently relatively cheap and easy access to indigenous plant resources. The chapter concludes that policies aimed at enhancing local indigenous plants and household capacity to cope with climatic variability can improve local welfare.

The African continent extends from about 35° N to about 35° S latitude straddling the equator. This particular geography determines its climate regimes – mostly tropical and subtropical with extensive arid and semiarid zones around 20° N and 20° S. In some parts of the continent the regional climate, in particular annual rainfall, is highly variable. Many countries are prone to recurrent droughts, others to flooding. As a consequence Africa is highly vulnerable to additional climate stresses. It is ironic that the continent which – owing to its low industrialization – has contributed least to the projected man-induced global warming should be suffering the most from it.

The problem is exacerbated by population pressure: Africa is the continent with the highest population growth rate in the world. It is further exacerbated by widespread poverty which limits the capability for adaptation.

It is therefore all the more important to take a close look at the environmental and economic problems facing the African continent in the context of global warming. This book is an important step in this direction. It addresses many of the pertinent issues in environmental science, such as the prediction of the regional climates, droughts and desertification, sea-level rise, biomass burning and its role in the emission of trace gases, and tropical photochemistry. In similar detail it also addresses the questions of sustainable energy development, and vulnerability and adaptation.

Keywords

Africa; disaster risk; weather, climate change; disaster risk reduction

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Droughts, floods and storms affect millions of people in Africa every year, frequently with devastating impacts. The multiple stresses on African countries, particularly from poverty, infectious disease, fragile environments, limited institutional capacities and unsustainable development, mean that even modest fluctuations in weather or climate conditions can lead to severe consequences. However, there is sufficient understanding of how these vulnerabilities arise and compound each other, and therefore of how to act to reduce the risks. Disaster risk reduction encompasses three main areas of activity – assessing the risks, practices to reduce and manage risk, and policies and institutions to lead and support these activities. Climate change from rising greenhouse gas concentrations is an additional serious long-term threat, though there is little scientific (IPCC) evidence so far of material changes in the frequency or intensity of disaster-producing floods, droughts or storms, contrary to popular belief. Instead, the increased numbers of climate-related disasters over the last few decades appear to be mostly due to growing vulnerability and closer awareness and reporting of events. Attention therefore must remain focused on the vulnerabilities and risks associated with existing climate variability. Nevertheless, climate adaptation initiatives provide a welcome opportunity to advance the reduction of disaster risk. Conversely, disaster risk reduction provides a potent means to advance the adaptation agenda.

Keywords

Renewables; market transformation; photovoltaics; solar home systems; buydown

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A growing number of rural African households are using small solar home systems (SHS) to obtain better access to lighting, television and radio. Various non-governmental organizations, multilateral institutions and international aid agencies have catalysed these markets, partially motivated by a desire to reduce global carbon emissions. This chapter assesses the carbon mitigation potential of African SHS markets, concluding that direct carbon displacement will be limited. Indirect benefits from helping the global photovoltaics (PV) industry scale up production and bring down costs via the manufacturing experience curve will be larger, but still trivial relative to grid-connected markets. Nonetheless, by 2025 SHS could provide cost-effective basic electricity to a substantial share of rural households, and grid-connected PV could make an important contribution to overall electricity needs in Africa.

INTRODUCTION

The Kyoto Protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) allows for the creation of a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Under the CDM, so-called ‘Annex’ countries that take on binding carbon abatement commitments may be able to partially comply by supporting initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions in ‘non-Annex’ countries. Solar home systems (SHS) represent one possible arena for generating such trades of money and technology for abatement credits, and Africa is an important part of the current and potential market for SHS.

Keywords

Drought; desertification; floods; climate; ENSO; satellite observations; GIS; disaster management; weather modification; open-source; geomatics

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Satellite imagery and in situ data processed in a geographic information system offer perspectives on Africa's climate. Areas of relatively high precipitable water vapour extend more widely than areas of high precipitation, suggesting that improved weather modification (e. g. stimulating precipitation) might benefit desertification mitigation efforts. Processed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data offer perspectives on the current state of desertification risk. The Vegetation Condition Index, used with compilations of environmental associations with ENSO, and with ENSO and weather forecasts, offer tools for agricultural, water resources and public health managers to respond to drought. Finally, evolving capabilities in satellite observations of flooding, global and regional digital elevation data, geomatics software, and regional cooperative mechanisms, offer tools for improved flood management.

INTRODUCTION

Africa's climate has been summarized many times in the past; it is not the purpose of this effort to repeat such exercises. Instead, this chapter uses scientific geographic information systems (GIS) to focus on aspects of climate parameters related to drought, desertification risk, and flooding. Such approaches deserve more widespread attention by those attempting to respond to climate change, including decision makers that must set national policy, or to build national or regional capacity responding to these issues. This chapter draws on significant progress over the last decade in compiling spatial environmental data, such as the Global Ecosystems Database (NOAA-EPA Global Ecosystems Database Project (1992)).

Keywords

Climate change; ozone protection; environment; business opportunities; economic development; Montreal Protocol; Kyoto Protocol; sustainable development; corporate leadership; technology cooperation; sustained financing

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Protection of the environment is increasingly recognized as a prerequisite to economic development because a healthy workforce and sustainable access to natural resources are the foundation of any economy. Protection of the stratospheric ozone layer is being accomplished by diplomacy, corporate leadership, technology cooperation and financing. African and other developing countries can apply lessons from ozone layer protection to address climate change. Economically successful strategies can be developed for international diplomacy, domestic regulation, corporate leadership, consultancy, financing and technology development and adaptation.

INTRODUCTION

Africa and other developing countries face daunting challenges to simultaneously increase the standard of living and to protect the global and local environment. It is increasingly recognized that protection of the environment is a prerequisite to economic development because a healthy workforce and sustainable access to natural resources are the foundation of any economy. Many of the multinational companies most important to national economic development have environmental policies that give priority to investments in countries most able to support sustainable development.

Climate protection is particularly important to African countries because they will be among the first to experience the consequences of climate change (droughts, floods and sea-level rise), and will be among the least financially able to mitigate the damage.

Droughts, floods, storms and other climatic phenomena are natural features of planet Earth and have been occurring for millions of years. The earliest humans, cradled in Africa, learned over time how the seasonal rains came and went. They observed how in some years the rains could be excessive, deficient or untimely, sometimes with disastrous consequences, and gradually they developed ways to better cope with the uncertainties. Episodes of significant climate shifts stretching for tens and hundreds of years also occurred and forced major shifts in the locations and activities of societies.

Today, our understanding of the rains is scientific and extensive, yet the continent suffers more and more from the vagaries of the climate. Drought in particular affects millions of people each year – people who are often already suffering from poverty and disease and who are least able to resist or cope with the added stress of food and water shortages. And on the horizon there is the looming threat that climate change may make matters even worse.

For many, there seems no escape from the repeated impacts of climatic hazards. But closer examination shows that disasters occur only when the hazard is coupled to human vulnerability. Surprisingly, it is the human situation that mainly causes the problem – especially populations in risky and degraded locations without the means to understand and avoid or manage the risks. Disasters are thus a manifestation of poverty, inadequate governance, meagre public services, and unsustainable development.

Keywords

Sea-level rise; extreme events; population density; scenarios

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The chapter discusses some issues related to the potential impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal populations and agriculture. This is a study mostly based on global data at the countrywide (national) scale. Indirect effects of SLR, as well as the potential impact of extreme events, may be more significant than direct effects in the future. In the absence of an accepted methodology for building long-term scenarios, two approaches are explored: an analysis of a large database of extreme events that have occurred over the last 100 years, and an analysis of population statistics in relation to a national vulnerability index based on physiographic features and population density. Recent historical data are examined with a view to identifying trends that could be extrapolated into the twenty-first century. Despite the limitations of the data sets, some trends do emerge, but they do not necessarily point in the direction of greater property and population losses in the future owing to sea-caused disasters. Rather, they seem to indicate that difficulties – independent of the global changes – will be relatively larger on land than along the coasts, and that the major component of life and property losses is associated with levels of economic development. The ‘national vulnerability index’ confirms that vulnerability – if considered at the scale of the globe – varies considerably, over several orders of magnitude. In addition, the index exhibits a marked positive skew.