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This paper examines the effects of average inflation targeting (AIT) on social welfare and fiscal multipliers under varying averaging windows using a nonlinear New Keynesian model. While the existing literature highlights AIT’s advantages over Inflation Targeting(IT) and longer-window AIT over shorter-window AIT in terms of social welfare, these conclusions often rely on linearized models that fail to capture expectation effects arising from window lengths. By solving the model nonlinearly, we find that social welfare increases with AIT windows up to six years but declines for longer windows. The key driver is the differing expectation effects, where longer windows reduce the likelihood of the zero lower bound (ZLB) binding but may overshoot inflation targets, leading to lower output and welfare. Our results reveal that the optimal averaging window for AIT depends critically on the ZLB probability: higher ZLB risks favor longer windows, while lower risks make shorter windows sufficient. Moreover, we investigate the fiscal multiplier under AIT and show that it differs significantly from IT. In addition, the welfare-maximizing AIT window does not align with the window that maximizes fiscal multipliers, highlighting trade-offs between welfare and fiscal policy effectiveness. This study underscores the importance of nonlinear methods in evaluating AIT and provides practical insights into its calibration for modern monetary policy frameworks.
A wide range of managerial challenges in healthcare, from decisions on what reimbursement levels to accept to how to deal with social determinants of health, could benefit from economic insights. This book for professionals in medical services, insurance and public healthcare emphasises intuition and common sense, making the concepts of health economics more relatable and actionable. It also challenges conventional wisdom, debunking myths and suggesting innovative solutions to industry challenges. For each problem, the book suggests actions managers should or should not take, when to seek new information, and how to interpret it. Economic analysis and research suggest novel answers to questions like whether to raise private insurer prices when Medicare cuts what it pays, when to accept a particular reimbursement offer, or how to manage patients with high-deductible insurance. The book highlights the impact on healthcare costs and efficiency of issues such as moral hazard, cost-sharing and price setting.
This Element investigates how public employees react to illiberal policies proposed by authoritarian leaders during democratic backsliding. Using survey experiments employed with 942 bureaucrats from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Brazil, the research explores their willingness to resist the implementation of illiberal policies. Findings show a significant readiness for resistance. The results indicate varying levels of resistance across countries, with Brazilian bureaucrats showing the highest, followed by British and American counterparts. Additionally, within-country analysis identifies individual characteristics affecting the intent to resist. The Element explores the dynamic relationship between politicians and bureaucrats, the autonomy of civil servants, and the perils of working under autocratic leadership. It also underscores the need for tailored strategies in recruiting and retaining public employees to uphold democratic values. These findings shed light on the complex dynamics between bureaucrats and democratic governance, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding institutions in times of authoritarian challenges.
Our paper investigates the impact of the user cost of money, or the forgone interest associated with divisia monetary aggregates, on aggregate private investment in the U.S. We employ a mixed-frequency time-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model with a large dataset spanning January 1972 to September 2023. Our impulse response function results show that the impact of the user cost of money is similar to that of interest rates, represented by the credit spread (the yield gap between Moody’s Baa corporate bond yield and the 10-year treasury bill yield). However, a shock to the user cost of M4 growth rate has a slightly stronger impact on disaggregated private investment growth than a credit spread shock. Hence, private investment is more responsive to the user cost of money than to interest rates in any economic environment. In this regard, when economic uncertainty is low, such as during the Great Moderation, shocks to interest rates or the M4 monetary aggregate growth rate have a significant positive impact on aggregate private investment growth. Our findings align with the literature on the relationship between interest rates and private investment (Bernanke, 1983b; Chetty, 2007).