Introduction
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, when the first commodity supercycle of the century began, Francis Ng and Alexander Yeast from the World Bank, asked what Africa should expect from its traditional exports – primary commodities (Ng and Yeast, 2002). They argued that if Africa continued to export primary commodities and raw materials, as it had done in the past, the continent could anticipate five major trends: declining or low global demand for commodities, falling real prices of commodities, volatile prices leading to unstable export earnings, further marginalisation of the continent in world trade, and diminishing economic growth and industrialisation prospects. Contrary to Ng and Yeast's prediction, the demand for commodities in almost all categories grew sharply and remained high for more than a decade from 2003 right up to mid-2014, producing the longest commodity supercycle since the golden age of resource-based development (Findlay and Lundahl, 1999; Radetzki, 2011). Demand for commodities, though it declined slightly during the 2008/2009 Great Recession leading to sharp price correction, it rebound quickly by the end of 2009, with commodity prices recovering to pre-recession levels in less than a year, largely boosted by persistently strong demand for commodities from a growing number of emerging markets, particularly Chine.
The growing and resilient demand for commodities was buoyed not only by China's rapid economic expansion which by the mid-2000s was consuming almost half of the world commodities, but also by other emerging economies particularly in Asia including Thailand, Vietnam, India, etc., which were relatively less affected by the 2008/2009 Great Recession (UNCTAD, 2016). What the Ng and Yeast study rightly predicted was the low momentum for economic structural transformation and industrial growth in Africa, with economic growth on the continent slowing down considerably after 2014 when the commodity prices on the global market tumbled (AEO, 2018).
The bigger issue of the African economic growth story that comes from the analysis of any period since the European encounter, points to the deepening African dependence over time. There are different types and levels of dependence which have emerged over time including technological, industrial, digital, market, monetary, aid, financial, military, cultural, and legal dependence, all of which, as noted in Chapter Three, play a part in weakening the continent's economic sovereignty. These different forms of dependence influence the levels of economic sovereignty African countries are able to muster.