Arguing that in order to understand socio-environmental dynamics we need to adopt the co-evolution of human cognition, demography, societal organization, technology and environmental interaction as the driver of the long-term changes human societies have undergone, this chapter presents a perspective on long-term human societal evolution from early hunter-gatherers to the present as the history of societal information-processing.

This chapter asks whether our current world system is coming closer to a tipping point, irrespective of any potential tipping of the earth system due to human CO2 emissions. It covers a variety of longer-term dynamics in demography, health, and aging, in the financial system, in water, food and energy provision, wealth distribution, urbanization, etc. It then develops a complex adaptive systems perspective on crises and tipping points, pointing to the inadequacy of the information processing systems to deal with the dynamics in which our societies are involved.

In an attempt to provide a more theoretical framework for the approach outlined in Chapter 8, this chapter develops the idea that the evolution of human societies can usefully be conceived in terms of “dissipative flow structures” as defined by Prigogine. By structuring information, these dynamic structures dissipate the chaos around them. This approach harks back to the original significance of “chaos” in ancient Greece, as the environment that enables creativity. It also describes the Aristotelian approach that assumes stability and aims to understand change from the Heraclitan perspective, which assumes change and questions how humans develop stability.

Innovation is here seen as a fundamental driver in these transitions in information processing. Summarizing some of the history of innovation studies in economics, the chapter makes the point that the dynamic of invention has not really been studied scientifically, but has often been conceived as a “black box” because our reductionist science could not really deal with the emergence of novelty. It then approaches invention as a case of niche creation, of an interaction between an existing environment and the subjective perception the inventor has of it.

This summary first reiterates the main elements of the book’s argument, and then argues that breaking the information-processing feedback loop that has driven the co-evolution of western societies to the point where they currently are is essential. The chapter then argues why I am a long-term optimist and a short-term pessimist on the chances of human societies to bring about the kind of profound change that is necessary.

If we are to develop such a holistic approach to sustainability, we must consider much longer timeframes than is usual in current research. This enables us to include slow changes, to study a wider range of socio-environmental system states, and to include second-order changes in our understanding. It avoids looking at the situation as if we are seeing a seriously ill patient without knowing what a healthy one looks like.

Here, the book looks at a number of trajectories that have been proposed to achieve more sustainable societies. Steady-state economics to de-growth, sustainable development goals, and polycentricity are some of the examples chosen to make the point that a profound re-thinking of our relationship to our natural environment, but also our society, is essential if humanity is to achieve some form of sustainability. Can information technology help? Certainly, if it is much more closely integrated into human information processing and helps foster the changes in approach that are necessary.

This chapter asks whether there is a way out of the current conundrum, argues that citizens must re-engage in politics, and outlines a trajectory for the design of plausible and desirable futures. It then looks at the role of narratives in shaping our futures, and how this might help reconstructthe fundamental building blocks of our societies: local communities. How can we, in this process, deal with the acceleration of information processing? And finally, how can science contribute to this process?

This chapter emphasizes that we have to learn from the past about the present, and for the future. This requires a number of changes in our usual perspective, as humans deal with information about the past very differently from information about the future. Whereas the former perspective is reductionist and leads to defining causal chains, the latter increases the dimensionality of our understanding and conceives of many different futures.

Summarizing some stages in the history of the western world view, and in particular the development of modern science, the chapter points to some of the iniquities of our perspective, in particular its reductionist and fragmented aspects. By placing these in a historical context, the way is opened for a different approach.

This chapter deals with the different attempts we have seen over the last fifty years at bringing together the results of different disciplines. After discussing interdisciplinarity and multidisciplinarityit develops a case for a transdisciplinary, holistic approach to our subject, and outlines some of the characteristic competencies necessary for practicing this approach, and concludes that a project and problem-based approach can develop these qualities in students.

The first part of the chapter recalls the end of the Roman Empire to describe the societal evolution of Europe in terms of the complex systems approach, accentuating three major bifurcation points: the black death of the fourteenth century, the exploration of other continents and the creation of the trading empires, and the discovery of fossil fuel as a source of energy leading to the industrial revolution. In the second part, the chapter discusses the respective roles of government and business. That is followed by a discussion of the crises of the twentieth century.