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This book places the troubles of ordinary people at the centre of economic change in Mexico, arguing that conflicts over small-scale unpaid debts were a stress test for the economic and political order. Studying malfunction – what happened when contracts broke or soured – exposes the ways in which debt trouble became a driving force in the history of accumulation and justice in the modern world. This concluding chapter offers final thoughts on the book’s core proposal: that a broad sense of fairness and justice provided a bedrock of stability that allowed for massive economic transformation over a long chronological horizon.
This chapter explores the interplay between China’s economic transformation and its shifting demographic landscape over the first two decades of the twenty-first century. It examines how an initially favorable age structure and abundant labor drove a period of material abundance and rapid growth, yielding a significant lifecycle surplus. Using a lifecycle approach with National Transfer Accounts, the authors analyze changes in labor income and consumption profiles, revealing that while early decades witnessed rising surplus driven by robust income growth and low dependency, the 2010s saw consumption outpacing income amid accelerating population aging. This resulted in a sharp contraction of the aggregate lifecycle surplus and a declining effective support ratio. The analysis further decomposes the impacts of changes in per capita income–consumption patterns versus demographic shifts, projecting that continuing aging will likely exhaust the surplus in the coming decades, posing critical challenges for China’s future economic and social policies.
This chapter offers a comprehensive overview of China’s economic transformation over the past four decades. It traces the dramatic growth in China’s GDP – from a modest base in 1990 to a global powerhouse in 2023 – and examines the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity. The chapter juxtaposes optimistic and cautious expert forecasts, highlighting challenges such as a structural slowdown, decelerating productivity, and the risks of excessive investment in real estate. It also explores the evolving dynamics of state control, the impact of global trade shifts, and the role of innovation and industrial policy in shaping future growth. Additionally, the analysis delves into demographic trends, particularly the implications of the “demographic dividend” turning into a deficit and the complexities of forecasting in a rapidly changing economic environment. Overall, the chapter sets the stage for a broader discussion on the policy reforms and strategic shifts necessary for sustaining China’s long-term economic progress.
How can wellbeing for all be improved while reducing risks of destabilising the biosphere? This ambition underlies the 2030 Agenda but analysing whether it is possible in the long-term requires linking global socioeconomic developments with life-supporting Earth systems and incorporating feedbacks between them. The Earth4All initiative explores integrated developments of human wellbeing and environmental pressures up to 2100 based on expert elicitation and an integrated global systems model. The relatively simple Earth4All model focuses on quantifying and capturing some high-level feedback between socioeconomic and environmental domains. It analyses economic transformations to increase wellbeing worldwide and increase social cohesion to create conditions that are more likely to reduce pressures on planetary boundaries. The model includes two key novelties: a social tension index and a wellbeing index, to track societal progress this century. The scenarios suggest that today's dominant economic policies are likely to lead to rising social tensions, worsening environmental pressures, and declining wellbeing. In the coming decades, unchecked rising social tensions, we hypothesise, will make it more difficult to build a large consensus around long-term industrial policy and behavioural changes needed to respect planetary boundaries. We propose five extraordinary turnarounds around poverty, inequality, empowerment, energy and food that in the model world can shift the economy off the current trajectory, improve human wellbeing at a global scale, reduce social tensions and ease environmental pressures. The model, the five (exogenous) turnarounds and the resulting two scenarios can be used as science-policy boundary objects in discussions on future trajectories.
Non-technical summary
Our world is facing a convergence of environmental, health, security, and social crises. These issues demand urgent, systemic solutions now that address not only environmental but also social dimensions. Weak political responses have stalled progress on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. We have developed scenarios that explore interconnections between possible climate futures, rising living costs, and increasing inequalities that fuel populism and undermine democracy to the year 2100. We propose five turnaround solutions – energy, food and land systems, inequality, poverty, and gender equality – that if enacted are likely to provide wellbeing for a majority of people plus greater social cohesion. This will support long-term industrial policies and behavioural change to reduce emissions and protect the biosphere toward a long-term goal of living on a relatively stable planet.
Social Media summary
Our dominant economic model is destabilising societies and the planet. Earth4All found 5 turnarounds for real system change.
In light of Mozambique’s natural resources boom—especially its large-scale investments in mining, oil, and gas—this chapter analyses the prospects for the extractive industries to contribute to economic transformation from an institutional perspective. For this purpose, we address the institutional dynamics of the resources sector and consider the underlying causes of the identified outcomes, and we discuss the National Development Strategy, as the instrument outlining the vision for economic transformation and diversification. The chapter is based on a desk review—documental and bibliographic—and on primary data gathered by the authors as part of their research into the field of natural resources and the political economy of development. We conclude that, given Mozambique’s political patronage and clientelism, intra-ruling elite competition, limited productive base, weak state capacity, high level of poverty, and recurrent fiscal deficits, the prospects of the current resource boom leading to economic transformation, despite its considerable potential, are at best uncertain.
It is arguable that the most important event in the world economy in recent decades has been the rise of China, from being on a par with Sub Sahara Africa at the start of economic reform to being an economic superpower today. That rise remains under-researched. Moreover, the great structural changes which accompanied economic growth require examination. The nationally representative China Household Income Project (CHIP) surveys, conducted for the years 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2018, permit a detailed examination of many important aspects of a country's economic development. Much of the analysis of this Element is closely related to, and largely caused by, China's remarkable economic growth and income distribution over the thirty years. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Dynastic periodization has traditionally structured the chronological ordering of China’s history. The period from 900 to 1350 encompasses two major dynasties, Song (960–1279) and Yuan (1279–1367). Historians in China and elsewhere typically saw the Song as culturally vibrant and militarily weak, and the Yuan as a conquest dynasty that briefly interrupted the narrative flow of Chinese history until the restoration of “native” rule in the following Ming (1368–1644). Twentieth-century national politics recast China’s history along a linear (ancient, medieval, modern) timeline rather than a dynastic cyclical one, placing the Song and Yuan in a medieval-to-modern transition. The high degree of commercialization and monetization of the Song economy led scholars to view the Song as experiencing an economic transformation that fostered dramatic changes in Song society. Recent interest in cultural diversity as well as political concerns with the role of minority peoples – in both the People’s Republic of China and elsewhere – have drawn new attention to the Khitan Liao, Tangut Xi Xia, and Jurchen Jin empires that rose on the Song borders, as well as the Mongol conquest and rule of China as the Yuan dynasty. Middle-period China encompasses processes of political unification, social and economic transformations, and profound cultural achievements.
The article examines the commonly shared belief that ‘there was no alternative’ (the TINA hypothesis) regarding the transformation strategy in Poland in 1989–1990. This belief is shown to be incorrect, with evidence that an alternative was contemplated. Following a visit in Stockholm in January 1989 of high-ranking experts of the Consultative Economic Council (a government think-tank established shortly after martial law was introduced on 13 December 1980), the Council produced a report on the Swedish Model. The report was hoped to provide foundations for shifting the still centrally planned Polish economy towards economic efficiency and the social welfare standards of the Nordic countries. After the 1989 parliamentary elections and the appointment of the non-communist government of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, the political environment changed radically and the priority of the new government was to swiftly establish a truly liberal market economy in Poland. The article shows, however, that notwithstanding those revolutionary changes, a high-level debate took place only a few weeks after the new government came to power to discuss an option of a more gradual strategy of Poland’s economic transformation that at the same time would be of a more social democratic nature. An insider account of that debate and of its external and internal constraints is given in the subsequent sections of the article.
Polish firms focused on international markets only recently, as they were not present in the international markets during the planned economy era and thus did not develop managerial capabilities to compete. With the 1989 transition, huge opportunities for growth and development in the local market absorbed entrepreneurial talentat first. As a result, exports and outward foreign direct investments gained momentum only from the late 1990s. This chapter begins with a general picture of the economic transformation of Poland, and then analyzes the internationalization strategies and capabilities enhancing the efforts of a selected set of firms in foreign markets. Our findings reveal that the firms’ performance in foreign markets is shaped mainly by their ability to develop strategic competences related to product and technology improvement, management of relationships with partners, and those specific sensitivities to the cultural and business environment that enable the firm to gain reputation and the trust of local partners and customers and to overcome any legacy liabilities ascribed to country of origin.
Edited by
Sabrina P. Ramet, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim,Christine M. Hassenstab, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim
Edited by
Sabrina P. Ramet, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim,Christine M. Hassenstab, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim
Until 1989, communist parties were hegemonic throughout the Central and Southeast European region. With the downfall of communism in the course of 1989–1990, new challenges, opportunities, and problems have presented themselves. In the years following 1989, two states – Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia – broke up into their constituent parts, ten of the resulting fourteen states were admitted into NATO and eight of them also joined the European Union (EU). States in the southern tier continue to be affected by corruption, cronyism, and monopolization of the media. But, prior to 2010, most observers were optimistic about the prospects for states in the northern tier to continue to build liberal democratic states. However, since May 2010 in Hungary and since October 2015 in Poland, there have been tendencies of backsliding, with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán even proclaiming his intention to build and maintain an illiberal de-facto one-party state. Poland’s Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán have followed the same playbook – restricting and, in Hungary, taking over control of, the media; establishing party control of the judiciary; and playing the patriotic card, while ostracizing gays and lesbians. Religion remains strong in most of the region, with religious affiliation even gaining ground in Bulgaria since 1989.
The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among children is now an important health problem. This fact, however, does not reflect the scale of the problem. The aim of the present study was to find how much the BMI threshold was exceeded in a population from Kraków.
Design
The study was based on three cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1983, 2000 and 2010. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was estimated based on the International Obesity Task Force cut-off points. In addition to these, an extent of overweight (EOW) index was calculated.
Setting
Poland.
Subjects
Children aged 3–18 years (n 14 534) from Kraków.
Results
Between the populations examined in 1983 and 2010, the EOW index in boys rose by almost 10 %, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity by 39 %. In girls, however, the EOW index decreased by 45 %, while the prevalence of overweight and obesity remained at similar levels. Analyses in separate age groups showed that the EOW index increased only among early adolescents (150 % for boys, 94 % for girls) and late adolescents (390 % and 64 %, respectively).
Conclusions
The observed increased prevalence of overweight and obesity mainly concerned boys and was accompanied by an increase in the amount by which the BMI threshold values were exceeded.
The eleventh century can be seen as a time of rupture and crisis in European history. Although law before the eleventh century consisted mainly of oral tradition, written law also carried some weight, especially church (canon) law. The eleventh century saw the beginnings of an economic transformation in Europe which recent researchers have dubbed the commercial revolution of the middle ages. The commercial revolution inevitably created a demand for a rational law of contract and a reliable credit system; and this could only happen on the basis of secure and generally accepted legal texts. The transformation and new development of law was impelled not only by economic, but also by religious factors. The end of the eleventh century, the time of the Gregorian reform, saw the rediscovery of the Digest and the first attempts to teach Roman law. During the Gregorian reform, the Pseudo-Isidorian Decretals were much consulted, and this aroused interest in the procedural rules for ecclesiastical courts.
Central to many political and constitutional disputes in the Pacific Islands is the fact that cultural and national identities, and categories such as indigenous, are ambiguous and contested. This chapter addresses the transformation of cultural systems and ideologies from the colonial era through decolonisation, by focusing on political ideas, cultural and local identities, and changing forms of group action. It also addresses the implications of decolonisation and economic transformation for women. Scholars suggest various causes for increasing political and other violence, such as foreign education, the frustration of young people, power disparities between ethnic groups, conflicts between region and nation over resources, and a growing gap between rich and poor. During the colonial period, Melanesian tradition became conspicuous and contentious in two arenas, one of them being that debate about local beliefs and practices escalated in association with cargo cults, that well-known form of Melanesian millenarianism. In gender relations, a dynamic conjunction linked indigenous precedents and foreign ideas and institutions.
The inception of the scramble for Africa obliged Portugal to act on what had been an established ideal for many centuries. Whereas their contemporaries in other European countries had eschewed the acquisition of territory, many Portuguese had envisaged the ultimate conquest and consolidation of the territories in the hinterland of their coastal settlements in Angola and Mozambique. The restructuring of African societies mirrored the economic transformation which Angola had undergone during the nineteenth century. The Berlin Conference had resolved the issue of the Congo mouth, but failed to delimit frontiers between Leopold's Independent State and Angola. The aggressive spirit which emerged from the defeat of Gungunyana was largely responsible for a Portuguese attempt to bring northern Mozambique under control. Events in Mozambique after the financial crisis followed a course similar to that in Angola. The advent of colonial rule in Mozambique did not produce many changes in the colonial social structure.
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