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The American and allied military presence in Afghanistan peaked between late 2010 and mid 2011. For the next ten years, the major debate in Washington was how many troops to withdraw, how quickly. The announced unilateral American withdrawal was the defining fact of the war for its final decade. Policymakers treated the debate over troop numbers as a proxy for a debate over larger goals. But there are other aspects of strategy, like reconstruction and diplomacy, that simply cannot be subsumed within a debate about troop numbers, aspects that went unaddressed during the US’s gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan. Withdrawing troops without achieving the other objectives is how the United States gradually abandoned the rest of its war aims as slowly and expensively as possible.
Public authorities often enforce pollution abatement through monitoring and penalties. However, monitoring is costly and only a small percentage of firms are monitored. Inspectors may be corrupt and permit evasion for a bribe. For firms in developing countries, it is expensive to enter formally and install costly abatement technologies, which are accessible only to formal firms. This paper studies a framework where firms, depending on abatement cost, the probability of inspection, the likelihood of a corrupt inspector and the bribe, choose whether to organize formally or informally and whether to abate before inspection. Firms that do not abate beforehand are liable to either pay a penalty and abate or close down post-inspection. Greater monitoring and lower abatement costs encourage firms to move towards formal organization, while excessively high penalties may discourage entry.
The previous chapters reveal that purchasers have markedly lower social status and fewer connections to the Crown. For critics of office-selling, this lack of social status constituted prima facie evidence of their “undeserving” nature and the “ambitious” behavior they will exhibit in office. Yet, this is not necessarily the case: Low-status purchasers may not act differently or may be simply seeking for an opportunity to advance socially. This chapter tests the validity of these claims by combining data on the individual characteristics of buyers with the timing and profitability of the position they sought. Statistical exercises reveal that, in line with its detractors, office buyers with “worse” traits flocked to positions that offered higher profit potential and at times in which the Crown was more desperate and less likely to vet them. From the point of view of the colonial populations, this was negative selection: Sales abetting those with the most to gain financially and the least ability to rein in to enter the colonial administration. Namely, venal officials. These findings set the stage for future chapters exploring the consequences of this change for the colonial administration.
Aside from elite collusion and administrative capture, the arrival of venal officials spelled the end of the Pax Hispannica – primarily in the key Viceroyalties of Peru and Mexico but also in its other territories. Through the collection of eighteenth-century local-level uprising data, the chapter shows that provinces in high demand during sales exhibited a disproportionate number of uprisings per capita vis-à-vis those less demanded. Administrative venality also exacerbated subsistence crises created by eighteenth-century weather events such as drought in Mexico or El Niño(a) in Peru and Bolivia. In addition to more uprisings, provinces ruled by more venal officials also saw greater geographic segregation of the indigenous population. By the 1770s, provinces more exposed to venality show stronger signs of displacement of indigenous populations away from their original sixteenth-century locations. Together, these findings show that as the colonial era approached its end, different areas of the empire already had different “governance baggage” depending on their earlier exposure to venality: with those more exposed experiencing more uprisings and more displacement than those less so.
Milícias are mafia-style organizations, often composed of current and former state agents, that have rapidly expanded in areas with limited state presence and weak legal oversight. In Rio de Janeiro, their territorial control is not maintained by coercion alone, but also through strategic political alliances. This article theorizes and tests a mechanism linking milícia expansion to electoral politics: milícias deliver concentrated electoral support to specific politicians, who in return shield their operations by influencing bureaucratic appointments and law enforcement priorities. Using original geospatial and electoral data, we show that milícia entry into a new area increases electoral concentration and disproportionately benefits milícia-aligned candidates in adjacent territories. We further demonstrate that this electoral capital is converted into political power through key bureaucratic appointments that facilitate further expansion and institutional impunity. Our findings support a theoretical framework in which elections reinforce, rather than constrain, criminal governance in democratic settings.
Current scholarship conceives of courts as victims or targets of populist authoritarians. But can empowered courts facilitate democratic backsliding? This article develops a new framework for understanding the approaches judiciaries take when tackling political corruption and argues that when judges attempt to replace ‘corrupted’ elected branches as the primary representative institution, their actions and rhetoric can enable populist authoritarians to seize power, raising the risk of democratic backsliding. I combine jurisprudence, newspaper archives and interviews to trace the process through which Pakistan’s Supreme Court, committed to playing a representation-replacement role, enabled the military-backed populist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf to come to power in 2018, and use its powers to reverse Pakistan’s democratic transition. I also probe the political impact of anti-corruption jurisprudence in more established democracies. In doing so, I introduce a typology for understanding approaches courts take when combating corruption, and highlight the threat to democracy that can emerge from judiciaries.
This chapter explores three particular circumstances where integrity has been found to be breached in tennis, namely doping, match-fixing and other less serious offenses, such as failure to report or failure to cooperate. The chapter goes on to explain anti-doping jurisprudence in tennis, the nature of proceedings, the relevant burden of proof and the intricacies of “intent” and “fault,” as well as the standard of “no fault or negligence” and “no significant fault or negligence.” The section on anti-corruption examines match-fixing by athletes and third parties, and also by umpires and other officials, as well as the sanctions imposed under relevant rules. These offenses are typically associated with legitimate betting and may involve money laundering and other non-predicate offenses.
Recent elections around the globe have seen politicians increasingly adopt anti-corruption rhetoric, yet little is known about the conditions under which such appeals are effective. While existing literature has focused on the factors that mitigate electoral sanctions for corrupt politicians, it has often overlooked the relevance of anti-corruption efforts. This paper investigates the impact of anti-corruption promises on electoral support and perceived effectiveness in cleaning up government. Using an unforced conjoint experiment in corruption-prone Paraguay, I vary candidate profiles with different anti-corruption platforms, genders, and disciplinary records. The results reveal that anti-corruption appeals significantly influence electoral support. Concrete anti-corruption promises with specific policies are more persuasive, indicating citizens prefer substance over vague rhetoric. Surprisingly, a clean disciplinary record does not substantively enhance a candidate’s anticorruption appeal, and male candidates appear to benefit more from adopting anticorruption platforms. These findings illuminate under what conditions anti-corruption platforms are more effective. They highlight the importance of specific policy stands and reveal that having a history of corruption surprisingly does not damage the credibility of anticorruption advocates.
This chapter turns to the relationship between the courts and the executive branch of government. The executive branch is ordinarily the most powerful branch of government, and when courts act to hold the executive to account, they are often at risk. The charged relationship between courts and the executive arises not only from the political tension that is generated by holding a powerful executive to account, but also from the different structural and functional characteristics of the executive and the judiciary. The chapter analyses these characteristics, noting that courts must act fairly and independently deciding the disputes that come before them and the executive must act to protect the state and its inhabitants and govern effectively. The chapter then illustrates the dynamic relationship between the courts and the executive by exploring three difficult contexts for that relationship: illiberalism and authoritarianism, emergencies and crises, and corruption by members of the executive branch.
This study examines how to counter the legalization of proceeds from illicit drug trafficking in the context of Kazakhstan’s digitalizing economy. It analyses industry reports and applies Walker’s gravity formula and a related conceptual model. Such proceeds account for 2 to 5% of annual gross domestic profit globally, highlighting a serious economic issue. In Kazakhstan, this problem is intensified by the country’s location on major drug trafficking routes and insufficient alignment of its financial sector with international standards for monitoring financial transactions. The risks are worsened by the anonymity and speed of digital tools, which hinder the detection and blocking of suspicious activity. Criminals exploit digital technologies – such as debit cards, peer-to-peer platforms and privacy coins – to launder illicit funds. To combat this, the study recommends using big-data analytics to detect risks, machine learning to respond to them, international cooperation to establish transaction standards, and continuous monitoring to ensure compliance. Implementing these measures will require multi-sectoral reforms and coordinated efforts across public administration.
This study tests the causal link between corruption perception and corruption in the public sector by using stereotyping theories. Using three experiments, this study manipulates corruption perception in 1,356 Anglo-Saxon public servants through information consistent with corrupt bureaucrat stereotypes. While the treatment significantly influenced their belief in the stereotype, it did not alter dishonest behaviors. However, public servants selectively use the information in line with how acceptable they perceive the corrupt behavior to be to decide whether they will engage in corruption. The findings shed light on how public servants process corruption-related information and its implications on anti-corruption policies.
Chapter 3 tests the book’s theory in Brazilian mayoral elections, drawing on evidence from fieldwork, secondary sources, and administrative data. Consistent with theoretical expectations for a setting with wide scope and low capacity, Brazilian incumbents suffer from a large incumbency disadvantage. While fiscal institutions structurally condition incumbent capacity and generate persistent levels of incumbency bias, exogenous shocks to capacity lead to changes in incumbency bias over time and across subnational units. This chapter illustrates that changes in fiscal transfers lead to variations in incumbency bias. It also exploits Brazil’s Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2000 as a natural experiment to determine how institutional shocks shape capacity. Using a differences-in-differences design,it demonstrates that incumbency disadvantage only emerged in municipalities running deficits – where the law was binding. This appears to reflect changes in public goods spending rather than in personnel spending – a proxy for patronage. The chapter also establishes that term limits increase incumbency disadvantage by attenuating performance voting and increasing costs of ruling.
For more than seven and a half decades, India has enjoyed the moniker of “world’s largest democracy.” In addition to this distinction, the country is the most enduring democracy in the developing world. India adopted universal suffrage in 1947, despite an extremely low per capita income. Since then, the country has sustained its commitment to democratic governance despite poverty, inequality, unprecedented diversity, and sprawling geography (Varshney 2013). This makes India both an important outlier as well as an exemplar for poor, multiethnic democracies the world over (Stepan, Linz, and Yadav 2011).
This chapter defines time inconsistency as the difference between the actual frequency of amendments and the one calculated on the basis of constitutional rigidity (Chapter 6). It proceeds to demonstrate that time inconsistency is proportional to the length of the constitution in all democracies. The reason is that “length” is correlated with “detail” (that is, the number of words per subject). This chapter provides empirical evidence that the length of constitutions is related to lower per capita income and higher corruption. These findings are consistent with the empirical research in US states that demonstrate that length of constitutions has a negative impact on GDP per capita, a positive one on unemployment, a positive one on Gini coefficients (inequalities), and a negative one on policy innovativeness (Brown 2021).
The scholarly and popular commonsense about corruption in the Philippines is that the country has always been corrupt. Seventy-eight years of corruption as an independent state (1946–2024) may as well have been a thousand. Lay and scholarly accounts explain this continuity with respect to traditional values and premature democratization. In both accounts, corruption is all but genetic to Philippine culture or politics. To be sure, continuity is self-evident if we are looking only at corruption scandals—but scandals have been accompanied by anti-corruption movements, broadly speaking. The two have gone hand-in-hand historically, suggesting that we need to understand them together. Taking them together, that is, focusing on their dialectic, produces, as I will show, a history of change. Specifically, how Filipinos relate to corruption has changed. They have become less tolerant of it in general and learned to embrace an anti-corruption model of politics. How scholars and policymakers conceive of corruption has changed. They have come to adopt a view of corruption as a generic social problem, effectively disembedding it from society. These developments have enabled a more intolerant approach such that, today, the greater danger lies in an anti-corruption “fundamentalism” leading to the rejection of politics altogether. Viewed as a whole, the history of corruption/anti-corruption has been a popular struggle over what politics should look like, and thus we might read their dialectic as driving the progress of political modernization from below.
Wrong-doers may try to collaborate to achieve greater gains than would be possible alone. Yet potential collaborators face two issues: they need to accurately identify other cheaters and trust that their collaborators do not betray them when the opportunity arises. These concerns may be in tension, since the people who are genuine cheaters could also be the likeliest to be untrustworthy. We formalise this interaction in the ‘villain’s dilemma’ and use it in a laboratory experiment to study three questions: what kind of information helps people to overcome the villain’s dilemma? Does the villain’s dilemma promote or hamper cheating relative to individual settings? Who participates in the villain’s dilemma and who is a trustworthy collaborative cheater? We find that information has important consequences for behaviour in the villain’s dilemma. Public information about actions is important for supporting collaborative dishonesty, while more limited sources of information lead to back-stabbing and poor collaboration. We also find that the level of information, role of the decision maker, and round of the experiment affect whether dishonesty is higher or lower in the villain’s dilemma than in our individual honesty settings. Finally, individual factors are generally unrelated to collaborating but individual dishonesty predicts untrustworthiness as a collaborator.
How do bribes and lobbying distort judgment? In our experiment, referees are tasked with judging a worker’s performance, and awarding a bonus to workers who score above a certain threshold. We find that bribes and lobbying are both distortionary, but in different ways. Whereas lobbying increases the number of workers receiving a bonus, bribes weaken the relationship between performance and success, with bonuses mostly being awarded to workers who bribe. We discuss implications for anti-corruption interventions.
Arguments that corruption is “grease for the wheels,” benefiting economic growth, are difficult to sustain. State-level findings show that extensive corruption tends to leave a state poorer, and more economically unequal, than states where the problem is less significant. Citizens’ ability to respond to those difficulties by political means is in turn influenced by corruption itself, general levels of political participation, the strength or weakness of trust in officials and fellow citizens, the amount and quality of political news coverage in the mass media, and a state’s social composition. Problems of low trust could conceivably be addressed via effective universally applied public policies, but those in turn can challenge, and be challenged by, key aspects of America’s long-term bargain between government and citizens and by citizens’ expectations of each other. Corruption often undermines trust, and trust can underwrite effective reforms, but the relationships are complex and contingent upon levels of trust that are neither too low nor too high.