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Procedures are described for the analysis of profiles of means in repeated measures designs under order restriction for patterns of mean change. The exact likelihood ratio is derived for the case of two groups of subjects, and a computationally simple alternative to the exact likelihood ratio test is provided for designs involving more than two groups. Tables of critical values are provided for the case of simple-order alternatives.
In order to recognize the best nutrient supply options for profitable and sustainable production systems, observations were recorded from 2001 to 2020 (20 years) in a long-term fertilizer experiment initiated in 1995–96 with soybean–wheat cropping systems (SWCSs) under irrigated conditions. The experiment comprised of seven treatments including control, organic, inorganic and their combinations. A combined use of 10 Mg farmyard manure (FYM)/ha (M) along with 120 kg N/ha provided statistically (P < 0.05) similar yield and economic benefits to the M + NPK and also provided a positive yield trend (30.0 and 16.2 kg/ha/year) and net return (14.7 and 5.81 US$/ha/year) over the year in both wheat and soybean, respectively. The combined use of organic and chemical fertilizers, provided 32–41% higher production efficiency than their individual use. In contrast, long-term chemical fertilization provided a negative yield trend in both the crops with the highest reduction in sole N-fertilized plots ranged from −39 to −42 kg/ha/year. Water-use efficiency ranged from 3.20 to 12.3 kg/ha/mm in soybean–wheat rotation and increased almost 1.74–3.15 times in wheat and 1.30–1.80 times in soybean due to fertilizer application. A similar trend was observed for water-expense efficiency and remain closely associated with fertilization practice. Long-term chemical fertilizers declined the yield potential of the studied crops while their conjoint application with FYM in the winter season considered as an input efficient approach to sustain the overall productivity and profitability of SWCSs.
This study aimed to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of disease burden attributed to high BMI (DB-hBMI) from 1990 to 2019 in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, in light of increasing hBMI prevalence worldwide.
Design:
The study was a secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) that analysed (using Joinpoint regression analysis) numbers and the age-standardised rate of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of hBMI-induced diseases and their trends from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade.
Setting:
GBD 2019 study data for BRI countries were categorised by country, age, gender and disease.
Participants:
GBD 2019 data were used to analyse DB-hBMI in BRI countries.
Results:
In 2019, China, India and Russia reported the highest mortality and DALY among BRI countries. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardised DALY increased in Southeast Asia and South Asia, whereas many European countries saw declines. Notably, Bangladesh, Nepal and Vietnam showed the steepest increases, with average annual percentage change (AAPC) values of 4·42 %, 4·19 % and 4·28 %, respectively (all P < 0·05). In contrast, Israel, Slovenia and Poland experienced significant reductions, with AAPC values of –1·70 %, –1·63 % and –1·58 %, respectively (all P < 0·05). The most rapid increases among males were seen in Vietnam, Nepal and Bangladesh, while Jordan, Poland and Slovenia recorded the fastest declines among females. Across most BRI countries, the burden of diabetes and kidney diseases related to hBMI showed a significant uptrend.
Conclusion:
DB-hBMI varies significantly by region, age, gender and disease type across BRI countries. It can pose a substantial threat to public health.
Data on trends in the epidemiological burden of bipolar disorder are scarce.
Aims
To provide an overview of trends in bipolar disorder burden from 1990 to 2019.
Method
Revisiting the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the number of cases, calculated the age-standardised rate (per 100 000 population) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for bipolar disorder from 1990 to 2019. The independent effects of age, period and cohort were estimated by the age–period–cohort modelling.
Results
Globally, the bipolar disorder-related prevalent cases, incident cases and number of YLDs all increased from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the World Health Organization Region of the Americas accounted for the highest estimated YLD number and rate, with the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 1990 and 2019 and highest EAPC of prevalence. By sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, all five SDI regions saw an increase in estimated incident cases. Nationally, New Zealand reported the highest age-standardised rate of incidence, prevalence and YLDs in 1990 and 2019. The most prominent age effect on incidence rate was in those aged 15–19 years. Decreased effects of period on incidence, prevalence and YLD rates was observed overall and in females, not in males. The incidence, prevalence and YLD rates showed an unfavourable trend in the younger cohorts born after 1990, with males reporting a higher cohort risk than females.
Conclusions
From 1990 to 2019, the overall trend of bipolar disorder burden presents regional and national variations and differs by age, sex, period and cohort.
Vegetables are an important source for the essential vitamins and minerals that are necessary for optimal health. This research investigated changes in vegetable intake over time in the Korean population from 1998 to 2017, focusing on preparation methods of vegetables and location of consumption. This cross-sectional study is based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) that was established in 1998 to assess the health and nutritional status of the South Korean population. This research utilised information from 1998 to 2017 which is the extent of all available KNHANES data. Vegetable consumption was grouped, according to preparation methods and common eating locations. Both crude and age-standardised means of vegetable intake were derived via a 24-h dietary recall. All participants who completed a 24-h dietary recall survey were selected for the analyses. This included 109 220 individuals (49 069 men and 60 151 women) over the course of 20 years of the KNHANES. Total vegetable intake decreased over time (Pfor trends < 0·001), specifically, steamed and salted vegetables (Pfor trends < 0·001). In contrast, Koreans consumed noticeably more raw vegetables from 1998 to 2017 (Pfor trends < 0·001). Vegetable intake at home significantly declined (Pfor trends < 0·001), while that eaten at restaurants or outside the home increased greatly (Pfor trends < 0·001). Over 20 years, Koreans have ingested decreasing amounts of vegetables, but the intake of raw vegetables has escalated. However, the location of vegetable consumption has changed, with an increase at both restaurants and outside the home (approximately 70·0 %).
Systematic data collection for direct statistical analysis of biodiversity trends tends to be focused on charismatic fauna and flora such as birds or vascular plants. When subsequently applied by conservation agencies in summary metrics tracking habitat and species protection, these patterns in biodiversity loss or gain can fail to capture outcomes for groups that have a prominent importance in habitat composition, diversity and ecological function, such as algae, bryophytes, lichens and other fungi. Such species are primarily recorded on an ad hoc basis by taxonomic specialists, yielding noisy data that present problems in robustly identifying trends. This study explored the use of ad hoc field-recorded data as a potential source of biodiversity information, by comparing the pattern of recording for carefully selected indicator species with those for benchmark or control species as a proxy for recording effort. Focusing on Scotland’s internationally important epiphytic lichens, and especially ‘old-growth’ indicator species, British Lichen Society data revealed a decline in the extent of these species in Scotland, relative to recording effort, over a period of five decades. A recent slowing in the rate of decline is observed but remains to be confirmed. The long-term decline is consistent with the effect of land use intensification, resulting in small and isolated populations that are vulnerable to extinction debt. We caution that remedial protection and monitoring for such populations remains vital as a complement to Scotland’s larger scale ambition for increased woodland extent and connectivity.
Japan is still a medium-burden tuberculosis (TB) country. We aimed to examine trends in newly notified active TB incidence and TB-related mortality in the last two decades in Japan. This is a population-based study using Japanese Vital Statistics and Japan Tuberculosis Surveillance from 1997 to 2016. We determined active TB incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000 population) by sex, age and disease categories. Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted mortality rates and to identify the years showing significant trend changes. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates reduced from 33.9 to 13.9 and 37.3 to 11.3 per 100 000 population, respectively. Also, crude and age-adjusted mortality rates reduced from 2.2 to 1.5 and 2.8 to 1.0 per 100 000 population, respectively. Average APC in the incidence and mortality rates showed significant decline both in men (−6.2% and −5.4%, respectively) and women (−5.7% and −4.6%, respectively). Age-specific analysis demonstrated decreases in incidence and mortality rates for every age category, except for the incidence trend in the younger population. Although trends in active TB incidence and mortality rates in Japan have favourably decreased, the rate of decline is far from achieving TB elimination by 2035.
Recently several industrialized countries reported a stabilization or even a decrease in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence rates. In Germany, this trend started in 2004. The present study therefore aimed to evaluate whether this trend has continued or even leads in a clear direction.
Design/Setting/Subjects
BMI (>90th percentile (overweight), >97th percentile (obesity)) from the CrescNet database was analysed in 326 834 children and adolescents according to three age groups (4–7·99, 8–11·99 and 12–16 years), gender and between time points (2005–2015).
Results
Trend analysis from 2005 to 2010 demonstrated that the prevalence of overweight and obesity decreased significantly in boys and girls in the entire group (4–16 years) and in 4–7·99-year-olds. From 2010 to 2015 there was a significant decrease in boys for overweight and obesity in the entire group and for overweight among 8–11·99-year-olds. Within the cross-sectional analysis, prevalence rates for overweight decreased significantly for both genders in the age groups of 4–7·99 and 8–11·99 years (2005 v. 2015). For obesity, prevalence rates showed a significant decrease for boys (2005 v. 2015) and girls (2005 v. 2010) in 4–7·99-year-olds.
Conclusions
We observed a further stabilization of overweight and obesity prevalence rates for all age groups and even a decrease in the rates for the younger ages (4–7·99 years, 8–11·99 years). As other industrialized countries have also reported similar trends, it seems that the epidemic of childhood overweight and obesity is reaching a turning point in the industrial part of the world.
Some researchers have suggested that qualitative research is increasing in the gerontology field, but little systematic analysis has tested this assertion. Using the Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue canadienne du vieillissement as a case study, we analysed articles reporting on original research from 1995 to 2012. One in four articles were qualitative, and results in three-year intervals show a clear increase in qualitative research findings during this 18-year time frame: (a) 1995–1997: 10 per cent; (b) 1998–2000: 19 per cent; (c) 2001–2003: 25 per cent; (d) 2004–2006: 25 per cent; (e) 2007–2009: 29 per cent; and (f) 2010–2012: 43 per cent. In all time intervals (with the exception of 2004–2006), French language articles were more likely to use a qualitative research design compared to English language articles. Topics, methodologies, and data collection strategies are also discussed.
In recent years, the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, the Mental Health Declaration for Europe and other initiatives laid the ground for improving the rights of persons with mental illness. This study aims to explore to what extent these achievements are reflected in changes of public attitudes towards restrictions on mentally ill people.
Methods.
Data from two population surveys that have been conducted in the ‘new’ States of Germany in 1993 and 2011 are compared with each other.
Results.
The proportion of respondents accepting compulsory admission of mentally ill persons to a psychiatric hospital remained unchanged in general, but the proportion opposing compulsory admission on grounds not sanctioned by law declined. In contrast, more respondents were opposed to permanently revoking the driver's license and fewer supported abortion and (voluntary) sterilisation in 2011. Concerning the right to vote and compulsory sterilisation, the proportion of those who did not give their views increased most.
Conclusions.
Two divergent trends in public attitudes towards restrictions on people with mental disorders emerge: While, in general, people's views on patients' rights have become more liberal, the public is also more inclined to restricting patients’ freedom in case of deviant behaviour.
Worldwide, the iodisation of salt has clearly improved iodine status. In industrialised countries, iodised salt added to processed food contributes most to iodine supply. Yet it is unclear as to what extent changes in the latter may affect the iodine status of populations. Between 2004 and 2009, 24-h urinary iodine excretions (UIE) were repeatedly measured in 278 German children (6 to 12 years old) of the Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study (n 707). Na excretion measurements and simultaneously collected 3-d weighed dietary records provided data on intakes of the most important dietary sources of iodine in the children's diet. Actual trends of UIE (2004–9) and contributions of relevant food groups were analysed by mixed linear regression models. Longitudinal regression analysis showed a plateau of UIE in 2004–6; afterwards, UIE significantly decreased till 2009 (P = 0·01; median 24-h UIE in 2004–6: 85·6 μg/d; 2009: 80·4 μg/d). Median urinary iodine concentration fell below the WHO criteria for iodine sufficiency of 100 μg/l in 2007–9. Salt, milk, fish and egg intake (g/d) were significant predictors of UIE (P < 0·005); and the main sources of iodine were salt and milk (48 and 38 %, respectively). The present data hint at a beginning deterioration in the iodine status of German schoolchildren. A decreased use of iodised salt in industrially produced foods may be one possible reason for this development. Because of the generally known risks for cognitive impairment due to even mild iodine deficits in children, a more widespread use of iodised salt, especially in industrially processed foods, has to be promoted.
Trends in the health status of the entire senior population aged 65 years or older in Manitoba were examined over a 14-year period (1985–1999) using administrative data (about 150,000 individuals). Significant health gains were apparent for a number of important indicators, including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and hip fractures, although some of these gains were restricted to urban areas. Improvements in these health indicators are significant, as they can have major implications for individuals' need for health services and ability to live independently. In contrast, chronic diseases were on the rise, with the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and dementia increasing substantially over the 14-year period. These trends suggest a need for a policy emphasis on prevention, such as reducing the prevalence of obesity, which is one risk factor for diabetes. Moreover, having sufficient care options in place for the growing number of individuals with dementia is an issue that will have to be addressed.
During the past decade, indicators for the assessment, monitoring, and evaluation of services provided by humanitarian organizations to populations affected by complex emergencies (CEs) were developed to improve the effectiveness and accountability of humanitarian response. The quality of data used to develop individual indicators and their relationship to positive health outcomes varies greatly. This article states the essential characteristics necessary for the development and implementation of effective indicators in CE response and proposes the establishment of an evidence-based grading system. The importance of trend analysis and the modification or addition of various indicators and their thresholds, according to phase and location of CEs, are stressed. Limitations in the development, implementation, and interpretation of these indicators, including those outside of the organizations' control are discussed. More evidence-based research is needed as to the type and thresholds of indicators that lead to improved health outcomes in populations affected by CEs. The use of indicators by non-governmental organizations, and how they affect their program's decision-making in different phases and settings within CEs need further study. Finally, the establishment of a regulating body with the authority to enforce the attainment of standards by use of these indicators is necessary to avoid inappropriate humanitarian assistance causing loss of life in the future.
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