We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.
To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Given the US population concentration near coastal areas and increased flooding due to climate change, public health professionals must recognize the psychological burden resulting from exposure to natural hazards.
Methods
We performed a systematic search of databases to identify articles with a clearly defined comparison group consisting of either pre-exposure measurements in a disaster-exposed population or disaster-unexposed controls, and assessment of mental health, including but not limited to, depression, post-traumatic stress (PTS), and anxiety.
Results
Twenty-five studies, with a combined total of n =616 657 people were included in a systematic review, and 11 studies with a total of 2012 people were included in a meta-analysis of 3 mental health outcomes. Meta-analytic findings included a positive association between disaster exposure and PTS (n = 5, g = 0.44, 95% CI 0.04, 0.85), as well as depression (n = 9, g = 0.28, 95% CI 0.04, 0.53), and no meaningful effect size in studies assessing anxiety (n = 6, g = 0.05 95% CI −0.30, 0.19).
Conclusions
Hurricanes and flooding were consistently associated with increased depression and PTS in studies with comparison groups representing individuals unaffected by hazards.
This chapter describes three main numerical methods to model hazards which cannot be simplified by analytical expressions (as covered in Chapter 2): cellular automata, agent-based models (ABMs), and system dynamics. Both cellular automata and ABMs are algorithmic approaches while system dynamics is a case of numerical integration. Energy dissipation during the hazard process is a dynamic process, that is, a process that evolves over time. Reanalysing all perils from a dynamic perspective is not always justified, since a static footprint (as defined in Chapter 2) often offers a reasonable approximation for the purpose of damage assessment. However, for some specific perils, the dynamics of the process must be considered for their proper characterization. A variety of dynamic models is presented here, for armed conflicts, blackouts, epidemics, floods, landslides, pest infestations, social unrest, stampedes, and wildfires. Their implementation in the standard catastrophe (CAT) model pipeline is also discussed.
Chapter 1 investigates the introduction of knowledge about the conversion of river flows into electricity to China in the late Qing and early Republican periods. Despite the prominence of fossil fuel energy in the industrialized world, certain Chinese intellectuals advocated harnessing the country’s abundant river resources to produce electricity as a means of achieving full national independence. Local elites took the lead in constructing the first set of hydropower stations in southwest China, and afterwards an increasing number of Chinese elites recognized the potential of hydropower in the country. As a result, in the context of a long-term national crisis, hydropower came to be, for many people, synonymous with the strengthening of the Chinese nation.
Flood is one of the major public health concerns increasing the risk of childhood diarrhea. This study aims to explore the association of floods with diarrhea among under-five children in rural India.
Methods
A cross-sectional study was carried out using large-scale nationally representative data from the National Family Health Survey-5. The Central Water Commission reports between the years 2018 and 2020 were used to group all the districts as non-flood-affected districts or flood-affected districts. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed to assess the association of floods with childhood diarrhea.
Results
The prevalence of diarrhea was higher among children exposed to three consecutive floods during the year 2019-21 than those children not exposed to flood. Children exposed to flood three times between the year 2018-19 to 2020-21 were associated with a 34% higher likelihood of developing diarrhea than those children exposed to flood one or two times.
Conclusions
Our study suggests that community health workers should target mothers belonging to the poor wealth quintile, young mothers, and mothers with young infants and more children to receive child health related counseling in flood-prone areas.
Exposure to flood, one of the most widespread disasters caused by natural hazards, increases the risk of drowning. Driving through flooded waterways is a cause of death due to flood-related drowning, especially in flood-prone areas. This study aimed at identifying the risk factors for motor vehicle–related drowning in floods and its prevention strategies.
Methods
International and national databases (WOS, PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, Magiran, and SID) were searched in the time span from 2000 to 2022. The studies investigating the risk factors relevant to land motor vehicle–related drowning in floods and its prevention strategies were included and analyzed using thematic content analysis.
Results
In 14 eligible studies, risk factors for land motor vehicle–related drowning in floods were identified and categorized in 3 subthemes: driver (3 categories: socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge and attitude, and beliefs); technology (1 category: land motor vehicles); and environment (2 categories: physical and socio-economic environment). Physical and structural measures (1 category: road safety improvement) and nonstructural measures (4 categories: research and education and raising awareness, risk management, promoting social-cognitive beliefs, and reconstruction and improvement of legal infrastructure) were proposed as drowning prevention strategies.
Conclusions
The knowledge, attitude, and belief of the driver; the vehicle; and the environment were the most important risk factors of driving through flooded waterways. These factors should be considered when designing programs and physical and structural strategies for future interventions to curb this dangerous and potentially fatal driving behavior.
The co-occurring flood and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) increase the consequences for health and life. This study examined the strategies to manage the health consequences of the co-occurring flood and COVID-19, with a specific focus on these 2 challenges.
Methods:
This review included all the studies published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1980 and June 2021. Several electronic databases were searched, including Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed. Mixed Methods Appraisal Tools (MMT), version 2018, assessed the articles retrieved through a comprehensive and systematic literature search. Descriptive and thematic analyses were carried out to derive strategies for managing the health consequences of the simultaneous flood and COVID-19.
Results:
Among 4271 identified articles, 10 were eligible for inclusion. In total, 199 strategies were identified in this review for managing the multi-hazard health consequences of flooding and COVID-19, which were classified into 9 categories and 25 subcategories. The categories included policy making and decision making, coordination, risk communication, logistics, planning, preparedness measures, response measures, social and humanitarian support, and actions of local communities and non-governmental organizations.
Conclusions:
Managing a multi-hazard and reducing its health consequences requires various actions. Flood management must be needed, and flood-affected people and their health should be protected.
During the night of January 31 to February 1, 1953, the southwest coast of the Netherlands experienced a ferocious storm, killing over 1800 people, causing untold suffering and a major economic loss. As a consequence, the Dutch government initiated the Delta Project, which, through a combination of engineering works, should make the country safe for years to come. As part of this project, risk measures were introduced, like the so-called Dutch standard of a 1 in 10 000 years safety measure. Their statistical estimation was worked out and embedded in major engineering projects. These resulted in the construction of numerous new dikes along the coast. Through this example, we highlight several aspects of hazard protection. First, mathematics has an important role to play. Second, interdisciplinarity is key. Third, with such major and costly projects, spanning several generations, a clear communication to politicians as well as the public is both demanding as well as necessary.
Explore the concept of risk through numerous examples and their statistical modeling, traveling from a historical perspective all the way to an up-to-date technical analysis. Written with a wide readership in mind, this book begins with accounts of a selection of major historical disasters, such as the North Sea flood of 1953 and the L'Aquila earthquake. These tales serve to set the scene and to motivate the second part of the book, which describes the mathematical tools required to analyze these events, and how to use them. The focus is on the basic understanding of the mathematical modeling of risk and what types of questions the methods allow one to answer. The text offers a bridge between the world of science and that of everyday experience. It is written to be accessible to readers with only a basic background in mathematics and statistics. Even the more technical discussions are interspersed with historical comments and plentiful examples.
Floods are the most frequent natural disasters with a significant share of their mortality. Preparedness is capable of decreasing the mortality of floods by at least 50%. This paper aims to present the psychometric properties of a scale developed to evaluate the behavior of preparedness to floods in Sudan and similar settings.
Methods:
In this methodological scale development study, experts assessed the content validity of the items of the developed scale. Data were collected from key persons of 413 households living in neighborhoods affected by the 2018 floods in Kassala City in Sudan. A pre-tested questionnaire of sociodemographic data and the Flood Preparedness Behavior Scale (FPBS) were distributed to the participants’ houses and recollected. Construct validity of the scale was checked using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Internal consistency of the scale was checked using Cronbach’s alpha. Test-retest reliability was assessed by Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Item analyses and tests of significance of the difference in the mean scores of the highest and lowest score groups were carried out to ensure discriminatory power of the scale items.
Results:
Experts agreed on the scale items. Construct validity of the scale was achieved using EFA by removing 34 items and retaining 25 items that were structured in three factors, named as: measures to be done before, during, and after a flood. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the construct obtained by EFA. The loadings of the items on their factors in both EFA and CFA were all > 0.3 with significant associations and acceptable fit indices obtained from CFA. The three factors were found to be reliable in terms of internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for all factors were > 0.7) and test-retest reliability coefficient. In item analysis, the corrected total item correlations for all the items were > 0.3, and significant differences in the means of the highest and lowest score groups indicated good item discrimination power.
Conclusion:
The developed 25 items scale is an instrument which produces valid and reliable measures of preparedness behavior for floods in Sudan and similar settings.
The opening chapter provides the introductory setting of the book. It defines the genre of origin stories discussed in this study and describes the major ancient sources of genealogical writing in biblical, ancient Greek (seventh–fifth centuries bce), and other early eastern Mediterranean (Phoenician and Anatolian) sources, some of which have only been published in recent years. Following the history of research, the chapter briefly introduces the thesis propounded in this book.
Edited by
Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany,Fabio Castelli, Università degli Studi, Florence,Dylan Jones, University of Toronto,Sabrina Sanchez, Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany
Abstract: Hydrological sciences cover a wide variety of water-driven processes at the Earth’s surface, above, and below it. Data assimilation techniques in hydrology have developed over the years along many quite independent paths, following not only different data availabilities but also a plethora of problem-specific model structures. Most hydrologic problems that are addressed through data assimilation, however, share some distinct peculiarities: scarce or indirect observation of most important state variables (soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater level, to name a few), incomplete or conceptual modelling, extreme spatial heterogeneity, and uncertainty of controlling physical parameters. On the other side, adoption of simplified and scale-specific models allows for substantial problem reduction that partially compensates these difficulties, opening the path to the assimilation of very indirect observations (e.g. from satellite remote sensing) and efficient model inversion for parameter estimation. This chapter illustrates the peculiarities of data assimilation for state estimation and model inversion in hydrology, with reference to a number of representative applications. Sequential ensemble filters and variational methods are recognised to be the most common choices in hydrologic data assimilation, and the motivations for these choices are also discussed, with several examples.
Parasites and parasitologists have always lived together in good and bad luck in a sort of forced marriage. In recent times bad luck certainly prevailed, because of increasing man-made emergencies such as wars, chemical disasters, but also because of natural disasters, amplified by climate change, that condition more and more parasite–host equilibrium. The symposium at the National Congress of the Italian Society for Parasitology, was a first occasion for Italian parasitologists to reason about ‘disaster parasitology’ and researchers’ responsibilities. Extreme weather events and their impacts on parasites’ epidemiology are illustrated, comparing disasters that recently occurred in Italy with literature data. In particular, the Sardinian Island was hit subsequently by fires and floods exacerbating the effects on ecosystems and parasite–host-relationships. Examples of Cryptosporidium outbreaks in man and Fasciola hepatica infections in various hosts after heavy rains are reviewed and effects of droughts on pasture borne parasites, such as gastro-intestinal nematodes of ruminants are discussed. Heavy rains may also cause dissemination of toxic substances released accidentally from chemical plants as happened e.g. in Milan province (IT) after the dioxin hazard. The overlapping effects of strictly man-made disasters with climate change dependent extreme weather events is further challenging the understanding of what are the consequences of disasters on ecosystems and parasite epidemiology.
GIS applications combined with AI programs may help to face the complex challenges, allowing the collection and analysis of spatial/temporal data at whatever level desired. Examples illustrated in the article suggest their employment also in a more systematic, prevention-oriented manner.
Japanese knotweed (Reynoutria japonica Houtt.) is an invasive Asian plant abundant along rivers in its introduced range. In riparian areas, floods and ice flows uproot the rhizomes, facilitating their dissemination downstream. Control of large, well-established R. japonica clones in riparian areas is difficult if the use of herbicides is prohibited. An alternative to controlling entrenched clones is the rapid detection and manual unearthing of rhizome fragments that have recently rooted after being deposited by floodwaters. We applied this strategy along a Canadian river where spring floods with abundant ice are recurrent. Two river stretches, with approximately 10 km of shoreline each, were selected for the fragment removal campaign. One of the stretches was heavily invaded by R. japonica, while the other was only sparsely invaded. In the heavily invaded stretch, 1,550 and 737 R. japonica rhizome fragments were unearthed in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Unearthed fragments had an average length of 27 to 32 cm. Only 21 fragments were found in the sparsely invaded stretch in 2020. Despite similar distances being surveyed, the detection and unearthing took 62% less time (overall) in the sparsely invaded than in the heavily invaded stretch. Along sparsely invaded riverbanks, a rapid response removal campaign for R. japonica cost, including transportation and labor, an estimated Can$142 (US$105) per aborted clone (i.e., fragment removed). A rapid response removal campaign is economically advantageous compared with the hypothetical eradication of large, well-established clones, but for it to be cost-effective, the time spent locating rhizome fragments must exceed the time spent unearthing them. The question is not whether rapid response unearthing is economically feasible—it is—but rather what invasion level renders the intervention practicable. In highly invaded river stretches generating thousands of fragments annually, finding and removing these fragments year after year would require a massive, unsustainable effort.
Snakes are sensitive to both environmental and climate gradients. To design conservation plans, a scientific understanding of snake habitats in light of environmental and climatic variables is an essential prerequisite. For venomous snakes, denoting favourable habitats should also be relevant for snakebite management. We have considered 18 spatial variables to portray the range of terrestrial venomous snake distribution in Bangladesh. Our results indicate that the distribution of 29 studied venomous snakes in this country is primarily driven by climatic and environmental variables. We found that especially low elevation and flood risk constrain the distribution of those terrestrial snakes, i.e. regular floods in central Bangladesh push venomous snakes towards the edges of the country. Moreover, none of these species occupies the whole of its anticipated climatically favourable area. Projections into the future indicated that 11 studied species, Amphiesma platyceps, Boiga siamensis, Chrysopelea ornata, Pseudoxenodon macrops, Rhabdophis himalayanus, Rhabdophis subminiatus, Bungarus lividus, Ophiophagus hannah, Daboia russelii, Ovophis monticola and Trimeresurus popeiorum will lose their entire climatically suitable area within the country. Therefore, we suggest establishing more protected areas in the hilly ecosystems in the eastern part and in the mangrove forests in the south-western corner of Bangladesh to mitigate future extinction risks, such as climate change, sea-level rise and increase in flood severity. Conserving village forests and croplands, which are subject to rapid change, will also need to be addressed equally, as these are inhabited by almost one-third of the studied species. The occurrence of the cobras and kraits in village forests and cropland dominant habitats demands more attention to minimise snakebite related mortality and morbidity.
Floods are one of Iran’s most important natural hazards, which cause a lot of damage every year. Various organizations, including non-governmental organizations (NGOs), participate in flood management. The present study aimed to explore the challenges and barriers of NGOs’ participation in the management of the flooding in Iran based on stakeholders’ experiences.
Methods:
This qualitative study is a case study that was conducted using the content analysis approach. Fifteen participants, including 3 national managers, 2 volunteers active in responding to recent floods, and 10 NGO managers/secretaries who had the knowledge or operational experience of participating in disaster management, were approached for interviews. Data were collected using a purposeful sampling method and continued until reaching data saturation.
Results:
Challenges and barriers to NGOs’ participation in flood management were categorized into 4 main categories and 14 subcategories, including policy-making challenges, managerial challenges, executive challenges, and socio-cultural challenges.
Conclusions:
As multiple NGOs take part in responding to disasters and performing relief operations, establishing a unified command and supervision system for effective coordination and collaborations among NGOs and other stakeholders is highly suggested. Further research is needed to develop a measurement tool for assessing the effectiveness of NGOs’ activities during disasters.
The Sultanate's political economy evolved continuously. Since the regime presided over an imperial union of territories that differed in their topography and ecology, the process of evolution in these regions exhibited contrasting patterns of change. Agriculture in the Nile Valley manifested procedures unlike crop raising or animal husbandry along the Syrian coast, upland valleys or semi-arid outback of the Syrian Sahel. Commodities imported from South or East Asia transited from ports in Yemen or Western Arabia through entrepôts on the Upper Nile to Alexandria, where they were transferred to European carriers that conveyed them to destinations on the Mediterranean north shore and beyond. Agents in each of these stages answered to differing sponsors, aligned their conduct of business with local politics and extracted revenues at levels fluctuating within the mechanisms that governed inter-regional trade throughout this period. Domestic commerce in both urban and rural settings dealt in the exchange of commodities produced locally in a workshop milieu. Control over (and profiteering from) marketing of lucrative staples that funneled revenues to the regime, such as spices, textiles or sugar, became a principal objective of governmental authority, with results that enhanced the Sultanate’s fisc in the short term but compromised its competitive position in the longue durée. These issues are considered from the perspective of agriculture or animal husbandry in Egypt and Syria, the varying extent of control exercised over them by the bureaucracy, interregional trade and its manipulation by the Sultanate over time, the domestic commercial economy, and finally the overt expropriation or clandestine extraction on which the regime relied as licit sources of revenuediminished in the Sultanate’s final century.
The Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is Asia's most important transboundary river. The precipitation-dependent agriculture and the world's largest inland fishery in the basin feed more than 70 million people. Floods are the main natural disasters which pose a serious threat to the local agriculture and human life. In the future, climate change will affect the streamflow and lead to changes in flood events. Based on the GMDF and GCM data, the SPI and the VIC model were used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow and flood events during the historical (1985–2016) and future periods (2020–2050) in the LMRB. The results show that the LMRB will become more humid in the future and annual precipitation will change from about -2 to 6 per cent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the future, this basin should experience a higher flood risk, with more flood events and a relative increase in the flood peak and frequency reaching up to +15 and +58 per cent, respectively. This study contributes to improve our understanding of the role of climate change on streamflow and flood events and provides a scientific reference for the development of local water resources management in the LMRB.