We investigate the labour market effects of incarcerating children. Using linked administrative data to track outcomes for English schoolchildren, we estimate an econometric model of transitions between education, custody, employment and NEET (not in employment, education or training), along with earnings for those starting work. We allow outcomes to vary according to the individual’s state in the preceding spell and, by controlling for personal characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity, interpret such variation as capturing causal impacts. For males, the main effect of incarceration is a reduction of more than 10% in the probability of employment. For females, there is no overall impact on employment but, for those entering work, wages are reduced by 25%. These negative impacts suggest roles for policy in deterring delinquency, finding alternatives to custody, rehabilitating those incarcerated and supporting resettlement on release. Appropriate labour market policy may differ by gender, with males needing help to overcome employer discrimination and females needing encouragement to achieve better-paid work.

The ‘knowledge economy’ is said to depend increasingly on capacities for innovation, knowledge-generation and complex problem-solving – capacities attributed to university graduates with research degrees. To what extent, however, is the labour market absorbing and fully utilising these capabilities? Drawing on data from a recent cohort of PhD graduates, we examine the correlates and consequences of qualification and skills mismatch. We show that job characteristics such as economic sector and main work activity play a fundamental and direct role in explaining the phenomenon of mismatch, experienced as overeducation and overskilling. Academic attributes operate mostly indirectly in explaining this mismatch, since their effect loses importance once we control for job-related characteristics. We detected a significant earnings penalty for those who are both overeducated and overskilled. Being mismatched reduces satisfaction with the job as a whole and with non-monetary aspects of the job, especially for those whose skills are underutilised. Overall, the problem of mismatch among PhD graduates is closely related to the demand-side constraints of the labour market. Increasing the number of adequate jobs and broadening the job skills that PhD students acquire during training should be explored as possible responses.

The ultimatum and dictator games were developed to help identify the fundamental motivators of human behavior, typically by asking participants to share windfall endowments with other persons. In the ultimatum game, a common observation is that proposers offer, and responders refuse to accept, a much larger share of the endowment than is predicted by rational choice theory. However, in the real world, windfalls are rare: money is usually earned. I report here a small study aimed at testing how participants react to an ultimatum game after they have earned their endowments by either building a Lego model or spending some time sorting out screws by their length. I find that the shares that proposers offer and responders accept are significantly lower than that typically observed with windfall money, an observation that is intensified when the task undertaken to earn the endowment is generally less enjoyable and thus perhaps more effortful (i.e., screw sorting compared to Lego building). I suggest, therefore, that considerations of effort-based desert are often important drivers behind individual decision-making, and that laboratory experiments, if intended to inform public policy design and implementation, ought to mirror the broad characteristics of the realities that people face.

While substantial evidence has identified low birth weight (LBW; <2500 g) as a risk factor for early life morbidity, mortality and poor childhood development, relatively little is known on the links between birth weight and economic outcomes in adulthood. The objective of this study was to systematically review the economics (EconLit) and biomedical literature (Medline) and estimate the pooled association between birth weight and adult earnings. A total of 15 studies from mostly high-income countries were included. On average, each standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with a 2.75% increase in annual earnings [(95% CI: 1.44 to 4.07); 9 estimates]. A negative, but not statistically significant, association was found between being born LBW and earnings, compared to individuals not born LBW [mean difference: −3.41% (95% CI: −7.55 to 0.73); 7 estimates]. No studies from low-income countries were identified and all studies were observational. Overall, birth weight was consistently associated with adult earnings, and therefore, interventions that improve birth weight may provide beneficial effects on adult economic outcomes.

In this paper, we revisit the Earnings, Cover (the ratio of earnings over dividends) and Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio models which we introduced in Part 4 of this series. Although we suggested that the significant decline in the Earnings Index over 2015-2016 might be followed by dividends and share prices, this has not happened. Instead, Earnings have risen substantially over the years 2016 to 2018. Therefore, we revise our models based on the updated data and compare the new set of models with the one in Part 4 as well as with themselves. We then compare different methods for forecasting Dividends and Share Prices.

Drawing on a growing cross-national literature on the social impact of economic crises, this paper investigates the social structuring of economic hardship among urban households in Turkey following the 2001 economic crisis. My goal is to compare the Turkish crisis to other recent crises, particularly in Latin America and Asia, and to assess competing claims about the vulnerability of different social groups. Using data from the study entitled Turkish Family Life under Siege—a nationally representative sample of urban households of work-aged married couples—the results paint a picture of widespread social devastation as measured by key labor market outcomes: job loss, unemployment duration, earnings instability, and under-employment. The findings suggest that existing patterns of social inequality related to class and status—education, age, ethnicity, and occupation—were reinforced and exacerbated by the 2001 macro-economic crisis. In contrast to claims that the impact was skewed towards higher socio-economic groups, the brunt of the 2001 crisis was felt by disadvantaged social groups with few assets to buffer economic hardship. Economic hardship was higher among labor force participants who are younger, less educated, male, Kurdish-speakers, private-sector employees, and residents of non-central regions. I discuss the implications with respect to the previous research on economic crises, the role of Turkish contextual factors, and the need for social policy reform, particularly in the context of the current global economic crisis.

Much is known about private financial returns to education in the form of higher earnings. Less is known about how much social value exceeds this private value. Associations between education and socially-desirable outcomes are strong, but disentangling the effect of education from other causal factors is challenging. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the social value of one form of higher education. We elicit willingness to pay for the Kentucky Community and Technical College System (KCTCS) directly and compare our estimate of total social value to our estimates of private value in the form of increased earnings. Our earnings estimates are based on two distinct data sets, one administrative and one from the U.S. Census. The difference between the total social value and the increase in earnings is our measure of the education externality and the private, non-market value combined. Our work differs from previous research by focusing on education at the community college level and by eliciting values directly through a stated-preferences survey in a way that yields a total value including any external benefits. Our preferred estimates indicate the social value of expanding the system exceeds private financial value by at least 25% with a best point estimate of nearly 90% and exceeds total private value by at least 15% with a best point estimate of nearly 60%.

The careers of male lawyers are radically altered by their experiences in the formation of families. These understudied male experiences fuel income differences, creating a highly hierarchical profession focused around a male mystique of “living large.” This study traces these processes across a 20-year longitudinal study of Toronto lawyers. We argue that time with corporate clients is a very specialized investment that is rewarded with partnership and earnings and that, among men, bears an unexpectedly unique relationship to having children, and that this specialized investment and its relationship to family are more culturally driven than biologically derived.

Past studies of aging and disability have been restricted to and by cross-sectional data. When cross-sectional surveys measure income, disability status and age at a common point in time, it is impossible to discern the process, and consequences, of a disability onset. In other words, it is not possible to examine the circumstances of the same individuals before, and after, the disability onset; nor whether effects differ according to the age at which the disability occurs. The present study uses a new panel data set, the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID), to examine the prevalence of disability with respect to age, gender, and other socio-economic characteristics; however, its unique contribution is its investigation of disability onset, and the rates of entry into, and exit from, disability status by age group and gender. Further, we assess the financial circumstances of those who become disabled vis-à-vis a “control group”.

This article considers the hypothesis that ‘older people in full-time employment normally receive earnings below the level previously enjoyed’, by examining the money and real earnings of older British full-time employees as they age. After a review of the factors that influence earnings, data from the New Earnings Survey of Great Britain are used to estimate average gross weekly money and real earnings of two cohorts of manual and non-manual workers as they age. The two cohorts were born respectively in 1927 and 1937, and male and female employees are considered separately. The estimates are used to develop time series age-earnings profiles of real earnings. These suggest that the average full-time older employee normally benefits over time from rising real earnings as a consequence of increases in national prosperity, although the increases vary by gender, occupational group and cohort. Older female employees benefited more than males from significantly higher percentage increases in their average real earnings, and between 1981–2000 average real earnings in non-manual occupations rose relative to manual workers' earnings.

This paper reviews four economic studies of aspects of earnings and schooling conducted by the authors using data from the Australian Twin Register. First, estimates of the economic returns to schooling made using fixed effects and selection effects regression models incorporating an instrumental variables approach to correct for measurement error in self-reported schooling levels are examined. The finding is that up to 30 per cent of the estimated return to schooling may be due to family effects and the remainder to pure educational effects. Second, comparisons are made between the economic model of Ashenfelter and Krueger (1994) and that of DeFries and Fulker (1985) and the results obtained from each are shown to be similar. Third, gender differences in returns to schooling are estimated and family effects are found to be a more important influence in the case of males. Fourth, the influence of family effects on educational attainments is considered and it is found that around one-half of educational attainment is accounted for by genetic inheritance and up to another quarter due to shared environment effects.