Introduction

Policy evaluation has emerged as a crucial tool for promoting evidence-based decision making, enhancing public sector performance, and fostering good governance in countries worldwide (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2019; World Bank, 2021). As governments face increasing demands for accountability, transparency, and effectiveness in delivering public services, adopting and institutionalising robust policy evaluation systems have become key priorities for many countries, including Jordan (United Nations Children's Fund [UNICEF], 2019; United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2020).

Jordan, a middle-income country in the Middle East, has been grappling with various developmental challenges in recent years, including high levels of poverty, unemployment, and regional instability (UNDP, 2021; World Bank, 2022). In response to these challenges, the Jordanian government has embarked on a series of political and economic reforms to promote sustainable development, reduce inequality, and improve its citizens’ quality of life (Government of Jordan, 2021).

Central to these reform efforts has been a growing recognition of the importance of policy evaluation in driving evidence-based decision making and enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of public sector interventions (UNICEF, 2020). The Jordanian government has taken significant steps since 2017 to strengthen its policy evaluation systems, including the establishment of dedicated evaluation units within critical ministries and agencies, the development of national evaluation guidelines and standards, and the promotion of a culture of learning and continuous improvement within the public sector (OECD, 2017; Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, 2019).

Introduction

Egypt is a fast-growing developing country. Its population is over 100 million and is increasing by more than 2 per cent annually. It needs to implement massive developmental efforts to cope with this increase and provide its population with a better quality of life. This needs to be evaluated regularly and lessons learned as a basis to optimise decision making and programming priorities according to evidence-based evaluations. Besides population growth, there is a need for job creation at a high rate to fulfil employment needs. Also, water and high fertility arable land shortages have diminished opportunities for increasing food production and reducing the food security gap. In the meantime, there are still gaps between rich and poor, gaps between geographical areas, and gender gaps. Egypt is ranked comparatively low in most development indexes and indicators.

Egypt issued Vision 2030 in 2016 and revised it in 2022. The Vision includes highly ambiguous objectives in all sectors, with a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system being envisaged to fulfil these objectives and programmes. Since then, many initiatives, programmes, and projects at different levels have introduced evaluation systems and established evaluation structures, which led to the present evaluation status in Egypt. Egypt's revised Vision 2030 is based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and relates its objectives to Africa Agenda 2063. Accordingly, different sectors and ministries developed their strategies for 2030. Most of these strategies, created after Egypt Vision 2030, gave M&E considerable attention and recognise the need to build further capacity for evaluation.

Introduction

Tunisia made history in January 2011 by becoming the first country in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to overthrow its autocratic regime through a widespread and peaceful popular uprising. Since 25 July 2021, Tunisia has embarked on a new political phase characterised by a comprehensive reform process and the adoption of a new constitution. The new constitution introduces a presidential system of government, a bicameral legislative system (consisting of an upper and a lower house), and a new electoral law.

The elections for the Assembly of People's Representatives (APR) (the lower house) were conducted in two rounds: the first took place in December 2022 and the second in January 2023 (the next elections are scheduled for late 2027). The new parliament's inaugural session was held on 13 March 2023. As stipulated by the constitution, the elections of the second representative chamber, known as the Council of Regions and Districts (the upper house), were held on 24 December 2023. Over the past decade, Tunisia's economic transition has been highly complex, characterised by nearly stagnant economic growth and a deteriorating social landscape.

The World Bank (2020) reports that ‘Tunisia's economic performance decelerated after 2011, resulting in a lost decade of growth, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit in 2020. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth declined to 1.7% on average between 2011 and 2019’. Tunisia adopted a proactive approach to mitigating the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The country implemented general confinement measures, effectively controlling the pressure on its health system. Additionally, actions were taken to ensure essential continued to function.

Introduction

The field of public policy evaluation (PPE) has garnered increasing attention globally and regionally in the mid-20th century (Hidri, 2017; Bhuiyan and Farazmand, 2020; Qarmout and D’Angelo, 2022; Patton, 2023). This book presents an in-depth analysis of public policy evaluation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. By examining the diverse historical, political, and socio-economic factors that have shaped public administration and governance in these countries, we aim to elucidate the challenges and opportunities for effective policy evaluation in this context. Public policy evaluation serves as a critical instrument for monitoring and enhancing government activities, particularly in environments characterised by resource scarcity and unmet social needs (Peters and Pierre, 2023). However, evaluation practices are not uniform across different political systems and cultural contexts. The tension between political systems and technocratic and socio-economic context is particularly pronounced, with challenges in implementing effective evaluation systems in different regimes (Schomaker, 2024). This book examines the public policy evaluation practices across the MENA region, analysing how political regimes, administrative traditions, and policy advisory systems influence the development and implementation of evaluation systems.

We propose a theoretical framework that distinguishes between three primary political regime types prevalent in the MENA region: autocratic developmental models, exemplified by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries; authoritarian stable regimes, prevalent in North Africa; and authoritarian unstable regimes, common in the Levant (Heydemann, 2020; Hinnebusch, 2019).

Introduction

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are critical components in moving towards evidence-based policy making and decision making, serving as tools for feedback, accountability, learning, and enhancing productivity and innovation. The evaluation process includes continuous measurement of progress towards achieving goals and periodic evaluation of the effectiveness of programmes in terms of the targeted goals. This helps organisations use the data and results in internal learning and make decisions to modify and improve programmes and enhance overall performance. Feedback through evaluation of programmes helps organisations correct current errors and improve future decisions. The results-based evaluation system is a feedback system (Gorgens and Kusek, 2010), without neglecting any programme or system inputs.

Accountability is linked to auditing, compliance, and performance management through oversight (Cook, 2006). It includes acknowledgement and willingness to take responsibility for actions, decisions, policies, and the expectation of recognition (Owuori et al, 2022). M&E for accountability usually focuses on accountability to governments, organisations, and funders through a steadfast commitment that the planned work was carried out to the agreed standards or achieved results according to the intended plans and objectives.

In the same context, learning is one of the core objectives of evaluation along with accountability, so there is a tendency to focus on M&E as a tool for learning and improvement rather than accountability. Learning is done through reflection on data and results from evaluation and is intentionally used for continuous improvement, increasing the organisation's ability to achieve the intended results.

Introduction

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) encompasses a range of activities designed to assess organisational performance and meet the requirements of diverse stakeholders (Marshall and Suárez, 2014). Within a project or programme context, evaluation entails systematically collecting and analysing data to ascertain project objectives and milestones, enhancing project efficiency and effectiveness (Kissi et al, 2019).

In a nation as intricate and volatile as Yemen, characterised by persistent political instability, armed conflicts, and economic vulnerabilities, the importance of effective evaluation implementation cannot be overstated. Evaluation plays a significant role in assessing the impact and efficacy of development programmes, humanitarian aid efforts, and governance initiatives, ultimately contributing to informed decision making and improved outcomes.

The journey towards the actual implementation of evaluation in Yemen started with the establishment of an evaluation unit within the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation in the 1990s, supported by international donors (Ivins and Hwang, 2013). This marked an important milestone in Yemen's trajectory towards establishing evaluation practices. However, Abdelhamid (2010) reveals that Yemen voluntarily participated in the baseline study of the Paris Declaration in 2006 but received a low rating within the performance evaluation framework. This underscored the pressing need to enhance evaluation practices at that time.

Heylen et al (2022) confirm the inadequacies in Yemen's evaluation practices, particularly regarding capacity building and site visits. The nation's political instability and fragility have served as challenging obstacles, impeding further efforts to improve evaluation implementation. While it might seem paradoxical, political instability has increased the demand for practical evaluation (Jaafar and Amer, 2017).

Introduction

Policy evaluation has become an increasingly important component of economic development. The practice began as a form of checks and balances, a way to monitor the flow of aid and assess whether a project had fulfilled its goals. More recently, the practice has evolved to incorporate accountability and learning functions, emphasising what does and does not work and how to improve a project. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's evaluation practice is still in its infancy. Public and private institutions have now begun to acknowledge the need for evaluation and its benefits, and progress has been made in the institutionalisation of evaluation in the region. However, the rate of this progress is uneven across the MENA region, and evaluation needs to be more embedded in institutional frameworks and decision-making processes.

Given the broader context in which evaluation takes place – a region dominated by authoritarian rule with an absence of civil liberties – the data's reliability is often questioned. Suppose data – the oil that fuels evaluation practices – are laced with discrepancies. In that case, the results of policy evaluations need to be re-examined, as policies based on these data could hinder social change. While the literature on the evaluation practices in the region has focused on the challenge of developing evaluation capacities, there needs to be more information about environments where these practices can succeed. This chapter investigates the barriers to an enabling environment for evaluation practices in the MENA region by analysing the relationship between governance, civil liberties, data collection, and evaluation.

Introduction

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region offers a distinct and varied environment for assessing public policy. This is due to different political systems, administrative customs, and socio-economic conditions. This final chapter consolidates the main discoveries derived from the comprehensive examinations of policy evaluation methods in several countries in the MENA region, with a specific focus on Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

This chapter assesses the degree to which the hypotheses derived from the theoretical framework, which suggests that political regime types, public administration traditions, and policy advisory institutions substantially impact public policy evaluation (PPE), are valid in the circumstances under examination. This analysis aims to improve our understanding of the PPE landscape in the MENA area, providing valuable insights that contribute to both theoretical knowledge and practical application.

There are a range of political regimes in the MENA region, from the autocratic developmental models observed in the GCC countries to the authoritarian stable regimes found in North Africa and the authoritarian unstable regimes prevalent in the Levant. These political systems have a unique influence on the reasons for, the methods used, and the results of policy evaluation. The autocratic developmental regimes, such as those in the GCC countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar, prioritise swift economic growth and modernisation.

Both colonial and postcolonial forces have greatly influenced the public administration practices in the MENA area. Napoleonic bureaucracy, widespread in North Africa, prioritises regulations and legal frameworks over performance management. Both colonial and postcolonial forces have greatly influenced the public administration practices in the MENA area. Napoleonic bureaucracy, widespread in North Africa, prioritises regulations and legal frameworks over performance management.

Introduction

Morocco is undergoing a political, socio-demographic, and economic transition. First, it is essential to note that, regardless of the periods of unrest in the region, Morocco remains a politically stable nation due to its constitutional monarchy (Madani et al, 2012). The country has an elected parliament and has implemented significant political reforms, including the adoption of a new constitution in 2011 that aims to strengthen the separation of powers, promote the role of parliament, and guarantee human rights (Madani et al, 2012). Executive power is shared between the royal palace and the government. Legislative power, on the other hand, is divided between the government and the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the two branches of parliament.

Still, the Moroccan government faces many challenges. Despite progress in human rights, more needs to be done, particularly on women's rights and equality (World Health Organization [WHO], 2014). Priorities that have yet to be achieved include establishing the foundations of the rule of law and advancing regionalisation (Sater, 2009).

Social context

Morocco's rapidly growing population and increasing urbanisation create challenges in maintaining education, health, and employment standards (World Bank, 2019). Concerning employment, despite the government's substantial public investments and efforts to reduce rural poverty, around 325,000 people live below the poverty level (3.1 USD per day in 2011) (World Bank, 2019). Moreover, urban unemployment stands at 14 per cent and rural unemployment at 3.8 per cent; youth unemployment, meanwhile, is 36 per cent in urban areas and 8.4 per cent in rural areas (World Bank, 2019).

Introduction

The transformation from tribal society to developed nation-states has left a distinct mark on the Gulf region. This shift has been defined by rapid modernisation, economic growth, and social upheaval. The discovery of oil fuelled an economic boom, radically altering these emerging nations’ social, economic, and political frameworks. Resource wealth enabled the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to evolve into contemporary nation-states. The regional economic surge impacted public policies and administration, illustrating the interplay of history, economics, and geopolitics.

The Gulf countries’ political structures are heavily influenced by hereditary monarchies and centralised decision making. Davidson (2013) argues that the concentration of power has significantly shaped policy formation and execution historically, contributing to stability and regime sustainability. The rentier state model, associated with Gulf economies, has similarly influenced public policy. According to Hertog (2017), revenues from oil enabled governments to offer extensive welfare benefits and public sector employment, constructing a social pact based on allocation rather than taxation. Historically, this model focused on societal stability through resource distribution rather than policy assessment.

However, more recently, there has been a shift towards more inclusive governance models and efficient policy measures. These shifts have resulted from changing socio-economic conditions, societal demands, and economic diversification imperatives driven by fluctuating oil prices. Ambitious national transformation initiatives like Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 represent a commitment to evidence-based policy making and the use of key performance indicators (Al-Saud and Kéchichian, 2020), signalling the region's commitment to enhanced development frameworks and economic diversification away from hydrocarbons.

What is a border? People often think of borders as those things that demarcate different countries – where one country stops and another begins. Borders are patrolled, we are greeted by barriers as we get off the plane or ferry in another country where we have to show our identity and declare our intentions for crossing the border. The geographic border continues to be a topic that causes major angst, tension and instability in the world – the source of conflict and contestation. Politicians continually talk of controlling borders, controlling who and what can cross them, stopping people who cross them and deporting people who have crossed them without permission. The US border in one way or another was a major element of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, whether that be in terms of his promise to impose large tariffs on goods that cross the border from China, or deporting migrants who have crossed the border illegally, or continuing to construct the huge border wall with Mexico. In Britain, the vote to leave the European Union was won on the basis of ‘taking back control [of the border]’. In other European countries, like Germany and France, a rise in support of far- right political parties has largely come from feelings of disenfranchisement and angst that the borders are ‘under threat’ from mass uncontrolled migration. The border has become one of the most heated political topics of our time, with no sign of any end in sight.

The hysteria, fear and tension that exists around the national border is very much connected to other forms of border and division that exist within countries. These are the internal borders that exist within countries – the gaping differences between different geographic places, in terms of wealth, prosperity, health and education outcomes.