Europe will continue to face an Islamist terrorist threat for the foreseeable future. However, radical Islamism has important weaknesses, in particular that its appeal is limited to a radicalized fringe of Europe’s Muslim communities. It is, therefore, self-limiting but also stable and probably more difficult to eradicate than the violence rooted in Middle East politics that affected Europe in the 1990s.

The risk of radicalization is only weakly related to the integration deficit of Muslim communities in Europe. The first, and least integrated, generation of Muslim residing in Europe produced few Islamist extremists. Many of those involved in violent Islamist extremism were individuals born and educated in Europe or long-term residents of European countries who on the surface appeared to be well integrated but turned against the countries where they resided.

Violent extremists are extreme exceptions among Europe’s Muslims. For the minority who become radicalized, the trajectories toward extremism and violence begin with a condition of disaffection or alienation. The circumstances that generated these feelings of disaffection and a search for identity provide a cognitive opening for radical ideas. Extreme Salafi ideologies offer a new identity that allows the individual to identify with an imagined worldwide Muslim community.

The grievances that propel radicalization and violence are largely vicarious in nature. The motivating factors need not be, and often are not, part of the personal experience of the individual. More frequently, radicalization is fostered by narratives of Muslim oppression in areas of conflict outside of Europe. Radicalized European Muslims turn against their countries of birth or residence, which they see as parties to a perceived global conflict between the secular West and Islam.