Although treatments for depression are effective, many patients do not respond. Many new innovations are currently being developed, claiming to substantially improve outcomes. We propose a new method to assess the strength of these innovations. Based on response rates of current treatments, we can estimate how many treatments are needed in total to realise response in >99% of patients if they were to be offered another treatment when the previous one did not work. Using a basic model as a benchmark, we can show that none of the current innovations likely represents a ’silver bullet’ that will dramatically change the outcomes. Improvement of mental healthcare for depression needs to be done by multiple, incremental innovations. Only together can these innovations substantially improve outcomes.