Evidence supporting the continuous latent structure of mood phenomena has not been incorporated into psychiatric diagnostic systems, in part because the evidence has been incomplete. For example, no studies have investigated the boundary between ‘sick’ and ‘well’ periods in individuals with bipolar disorder, despite agreement that characterization of mood disorders as having a discrete episodic course is inaccurate. The present study examined the validity of mood episode symptom thresholds in out-patients with bipolar disorder using multiple methodologies: taxometrics and information-theoretic latent distribution modeling (ITLDM), to evaluate the continuity/discontinuity of mood symptoms; and structural equation mixture modeling (SEMM), to evaluate the continuity/discontinuity of associations between mood symptoms and general functioning.

A total of 3721 out-patients with bipolar disorder from the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder (STEP-BD) were available for analysis. Data were collected at participants’ baseline STEP-BD visit. Taxometric [maximum covariance/means above minus below a cut (MAXCOV/MAMBAC) with simulated comparison data], ITLDM and SEMM methods were applied twice, once to the Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale and again to the Young Mania Rating Scale.

Taxometric results unequivocally supported a continuous interpretation of the data. ITLDM results favored many valued ‘discrete metrical’ models, suggesting that mood symptoms have continuous, but potentially non-normally distributed, latent structures in out-patients with bipolar disorder. Finally, SEMM results demonstrated that latent associations between mood symptoms and general functioning were linear.

Results from the present study argue against the validity of DSM mood episode thresholds and argue for a graded continuum of care of bipolar symptom management.

The relationship between the subtypes of psychotic experiences (PEs) and common mental health symptoms remains unclear. The current study aims to establish the 12-month prevalence of PEs in a representative sample of community-dwelling Chinese population in Hong Kong and explore the relationship of types of PEs and common mental health symptoms.

This is a population-based two-phase household survey of Chinese population in Hong Kong aged 16–75 (N = 5719) conducted between 2010 and 2013 and a 2-year follow-up study of PEs positive subjects (N = 152). PEs were measured with Psychosis Screening Questionnaire (PSQ) and subjects who endorsed any item on the PSQ without a clinical diagnosis of psychotic disorder were considered as PE-positive. Types of PEs were characterized using a number of PEs (single v. multiple) and latent class analysis. All PE-positive subjects were assessed with common mental health symptoms and suicidal ideations at baseline and 2-year follow-up. PE status was also assessed at 2-year follow-up.

The 12-month prevalence of PEs in Hong Kong was 2.7% with 21.1% had multiple PEs. Three latent classes of PEs were identified: hallucination, paranoia and mixed. Multiple PEs and hallucination latent class of PEs were associated with higher levels of common mental health symptoms. PE persistent rate at 2-year follow-up was 15.1%. Multiple PEs was associated with poorer mental health at 2-year follow-up.

Results highlighted the transient and heterogeneous nature of PEs, and that multiple PEs and hallucination subtype of PEs may be specific indices of poorer common mental health.

Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are pervasive and multifactorial neurodevelopmental conditions, characterized by impairments in social communication and interaction, and restricted, repetitive patterns of behaviour, interests or activities. Treatment options to ameliorate symptoms of ASDs are limited. Heterogeneity complicates the quest for personalized medicine in this population. Our aim was to investigate if there are baseline characteristics of patients that moderate response or trial design features that impede the identification of efficacious interventions for ASDs.

Literature searches of EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO identified 43 studies for qualitative assessment of baseline characterization of participants and 37 studies for quantitative analysis of moderators of treatment response. Criteria included blinded randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in paediatric ASD, with at least 10 participants per arm or 20 overall, of oral treatments, including pharmacological interventions and dietary supplements.

Random-effects meta-analysis of 1997 participants (81% male) identified three moderators associated with an increase in treatment response: trials located in Europe and the Middle-East; outcome measures designated primary status; and the type of outcome measure. Inconsistent reporting of baseline symptom severity and intellectual functioning prevented analysis of these variables. Qualitative synthesis of baseline characteristics identified at least 31 variables, with only age and gender reported in all trials. Biological markers were included in six RCTs.

Few trials reported adequate baseline characteristics to permit detailed analysis of response to treatment. Consideration of geographical location, baseline severity and intellectual function is required to ensure generalizability of results. The use of biological markers and correlates in ASD trials remains in its infancy. There is great need to improve the application of baseline characterization and incorporation of biological markers and correlates to permit selection of participants into homogeneous subgroups and to inform response to treatment in ASD.

Socioeconomic difficulties affect the cognitive and emotional development of children. However, the focus of prior studies has largely been on poverty and material hardship. This study expands on the existing literature by examining the impact of familial transient financial difficulties during infancy on long-term cognitive and behavioral outcomes.

The National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (79) were used to assess the association between a transient drop in family income by 50% or more (called transient income decline or TID) during the first 3 years of life and later-life Peabody Individual Achievement Math and Reading scores and behavior problem index (BPI) scores (N = 8272–17 348; median assessment age = 9 years). A subsample of matched siblings (N = 2049–4238) was examined to tease out maternal and intra-familial effects.

Exposure to TID predicted increased total and externalizing BPI scores (std. coefficients of 0.10 and 0.09, respectively, p < 0.01) in the overall sample. Among matched siblings, exposure to TID predicted increased total, externalizing, and internalizing BPI scores (std. coefficients of 0.27, 0.25, and 0.23, respectively, p < 0.01).

Familial transient financial difficulties can have long-lasting behavioral effects for infants. The study identifies an early risk factor and at-risk children, thus providing insight into developing early intervention measures for infants to avoid long-term behavioral problems.

Self-harm is a significant public health issue, and both our understanding and ability to predict adverse outcomes are currently inadequate. The current study explores how preventative efforts could be aided through short-term prediction and modelling of risk factors for self-harm.

Patients (72% female, Mage = 40.3 years) within an inpatient psychiatric facility self-reported their psychological distress, interpersonal circumstances, and wish to live and die on a daily basis during 3690 unique admissions. Hierarchical logistic regressions assessed whether daily changes in self-report and history of self-harm could predict self-harm, with machine learning used to train and test the model. To assess interrelationships between predictors, network and cross-lagged panel models were performed.

Increases in a wish to die (β = 1.34) and psychological distress (β = 1.07) on a daily basis were associated with increased rates of self-harm, while a wish to die on the day prior [odds ratio (OR) 3.02] and a history of self-harm (OR 3.02) was also associated with self-harm. The model detected 77.7% of self-harm incidents (positive predictive value = 26.6%, specificity = 79.1%). Psychological distress, wish to live and die, and interpersonal factors were reciprocally related over the prior day.

Short-term fluctuations in self-reported mental health may provide an indication of when an individual is at-risk of self-harm. Routine monitoring may provide useful feedback to clinical staff to reduce risk of self-harm. Modifiable risk factors identified in the current study may be targeted during interventions to minimise risk of self-harm.

Health anxiety (HA) is associated with increased risk of disability, increased health care utilization and reduced quality of life. However, there is no consensus on which factors are important for the level of HA. The aim of this study was to explore the distribution of HA in a general adult population and to investigate whether demographic and social factors were associated with HA.

This study used cross-sectional data from the seventh Tromsø study. A total of 18 064 participants aged 40 years or older were included in the analysis. The six-item Whiteley Index (WI-6) with a 5-point Likert scale was used to measure HA. Sociodemographic factors included age, sex, education, household income, quality of friendship and participation in an organized activity.

HA showed an exponential distribution among the participants with a median score of 2 points out of 24 points. In total, 75% had a total score of 5 points or less, whereas 1% had a score >14 points. Education, household income, quality of friendship and participation in organized activity were significantly associated with HA. The variable quality of friendship demonstrated the strongest association with HA.

Our study showed an exponential distribution of HA in a general adult population. There was no evident cut-off point to distinguish participants with severe HA based on their WI-6 score, indicating the importance of analysing HA as a complex, continuous construct. HA demonstrated strong associations with quality of friendship and participation in an organized activity.

Previous research has suggested that statistical power is suboptimal in many biomedical disciplines, but it is unclear whether power is better in trials for particular interventions, disorders, or outcome types. We therefore performed a detailed examination of power in trials of psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy, and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for mood, anxiety, and psychotic disorders.

We extracted data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (Mental Health). We focused on continuous efficacy outcomes and estimated power to detect predetermined effect sizes (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.20–0.80, primary SMD = 0.40) and meta-analytic effect sizes (ESMA). We performed meta-regression to estimate the influence of including underpowered studies in meta-analyses.

We included 256 reviews with 10 686 meta-analyses and 47 384 studies. Statistical power for continuous efficacy outcomes was very low across intervention and disorder types (overall median [IQR] power for SMD = 0.40: 0.32 [0.19–0.54]; for ESMA: 0.23 [0.09–0.58]), only reaching conventionally acceptable levels (80%) for SMD = 0.80. Median power to detect the ESMA was higher in treatment-as-usual (TAU)/waitlist-controlled (0.49–0.63) or placebo-controlled (0.12–0.38) trials than in trials comparing active treatments (0.07–0.13). Adequately-powered studies produced smaller effect sizes than underpowered studies (B = −0.06, p ⩽ 0.001).

Power to detect both predetermined and meta-analytic effect sizes in psychiatric trials was low across all interventions and disorders examined. Consistent with the presence of reporting bias, underpowered studies produced larger effect sizes than adequately-powered studies. These results emphasize the need to increase sample sizes and to reduce reporting bias against studies reporting null results to improve the reliability of the published literature.

Although there is extensive evidence that problematic alcohol use is associated with smaller hippocampal volume, the typical cross-sectional study design cannot determine whether hippocampal deviations reflect pre-existing liability toward problematic alcohol use or instead reflect an alcohol exposure-related effect. We used the co-twin control study design, which capitalizes upon differences within a twin pair in levels of drinking, to differentiate pre-existing liability from an effect of alcohol exposure.

The sample included 100 female twins, prospectively assessed from ages 11 to 24. Problematic alcohol use was assessed dimensionally and included indicators of quantity, frequency, and density of alcohol use and intoxication. Hippocampal volume was assessed using magnetic resonance imaging.

Problematic alcohol use (proximal and cumulative) was associated with significantly smaller left and right hippocampal volume. Follow-up co-twin control analyses that partitioned individual-level alcohol effects into pre-existing, familial liability and non-shared alcohol exposure-related effects indicated that this association reflected alcohol exposure. Greater alcohol using twins had smaller hippocampal volume relative to lesser alcohol using co-twins, beyond effects of their shared genetic and environmental liability toward problematic alcohol use. Results held accounting for recent alcohol use, other substance use, externalizing and internalizing psychopathology, personality traits, trauma exposure, and menstrual phase.

The association between problematic alcohol use and smaller hippocampal volume likely reflects an alcohol exposure-related effect. Differentiating pre-existing brain deviations that confer risk for problematic alcohol use from those that reflect effects of alcohol on the brain will inform etiological models of addiction and further prevention and intervention efforts.

Genetically informed studies have provided mixed findings as to what extent parental substance misuse is associated with offspring substance misuse and antisocial behavior due to shared environmental and genetic factors.

We linked data from nationwide registries for a cohort of 2 476 198 offspring born in Sweden 1958–1995 and their parents. Substance misuse was defined as International Classification of Diseases diagnoses of alcohol/drug use disorders or alcohol/drug-related criminal convictions. Quantitative genetic offspring-of-siblings analyses in offspring of monozygotic and dizygotic twin, full-sibling, and half-sibling parents were conducted.

Both maternal and paternal substance misuse were robustly associated with offspring substance misuse [maternal adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.83 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80–1.87); paternal aHR = 1.96 (1.94–1.98)] and criminal convictions [maternal aHR = 1.56 (1.54–1.58); paternal aHR = 1.66 (1.64–1.67)]. Additive genetic effects explained 42% (95% CI 25–56%) and 46% (36–55%) of the variance in maternal and paternal substance misuse, respectively, and between 36 and 44% of the variance in substance misuse and criminality in offspring. The associations between parental substance misuse and offspring outcomes were mostly due to additive genetic effects, which explained 54–85% of the parent-offspring covariance. However, both nuclear and extended family environmental factors also contributed to the associations, especially with offspring substance misuse.

Our findings from a large offspring-of-siblings study indicate that shared genetic influences mostly explain the associations between parental substance misuse and both offspring substance misuse and criminality, but we also found evidence for the contribution of environmental factors shared by members of nuclear and extended families.

The use of older data and references is becoming increasingly disfavored for publication. A myopic focus on newer research risks losing sight of important research questions already addressed by now-invisible older studies. This creates a ‘Groundhog Day’ effect as illustrated by the 1993 movie of this name in which the protagonist has to relive the same day (Groundhog Day) over and over and over within a world with no memory of it. This article examines the consequences of the recent preference for newer data and references in current publication practices and is intended to stimulate new consideration of the utility of selected older data and references for the advancement of scientific knowledge.

Examples from the literature are used to exemplify the value of older data and older references. To illustrate the recency of references published in original medical research articles in a selected sample of recent academic medical journals, original research articles were examined in recent issues in selected psychiatry, medicine, and surgery journals.

The literature examined reflected this article's initial assertion that journals are emphasizing the publication of research with newer data and more recent references.

The current valuation of newer data above older data fails to appreciate the fact that new data eventually become old, and that old data were once new. The bias demonstrated in arbitrary policies pertaining to older data and older references can be addressed by instituting comparable treatment of older and newer data and references.

Women experience major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) approximately twice as often as men. Estrogen is thought to contribute to sex differences in these disorders, and reduced estrogen is also known to be a key driver of menopause symptoms such as hot flashes. Moreover, estrogen is used to treat menopause symptoms. In order to test for potential shared genetic influences between menopause symptoms and psychiatric disorders, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of estrogen medication use (as a proxy for menopause symptoms) in the UK Biobank.

The analysis included 232 993 women aged 39–71 in the UK Biobank. The outcome variable for genetic analyses was estrogen medication use, excluding women using hormonal contraceptives. Trans-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses were conducted along with genetic correlation analyses on the European ancestry GWAS results. Hormone usage was also tested for association with depression and PTSD.

GWAS of estrogen medication use (compared to non-use) identified a locus in the TACR3 gene, which was previously linked to hot flashes in menopause [top rs77322567, odds ratio (OR) = 0.78, p = 7.7 × 10−15]. Genetic correlation analyses revealed shared genetic influences on menopause symptoms and depression (rg = 0.231, s.e. = 0.055, p = 2.8 × 10−5). Non-genetic analyses revealed higher psychiatric symptoms scores among women using estrogen medications.

These results suggest that menopause symptoms have a complex genetic etiology which is partially shared with genetic influences on depression. Moreover, the TACR3 gene identified here has direct clinical relevance; antagonists for the neurokinin 3 receptor (coded for by TACR3) are effective treatments for hot flashes.

Despite unclear evidence to support the long-term use of antipsychotics to treat challenging (problem) behaviours in people with autism in the absence of a psychiatric disorder, this practice is common.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving antipsychotics for people with autism of all ages, irrespective of the outcomes assessed. We searched seven databases and hand-searched ten relevant journals. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full papers and extracted data using the Cochrane Handbook template. We conducted meta-analyses of outcomes and the rate of adverse events.

We included 39 papers based on 21 primary RCTs that recruited 1482 people with autism. No RCT assessed any psychiatric disorder outcome, such as psychoses or bipolar disorder. A meta-analysis of ten placebo-controlled RCTs showed a significantly improved Aberrant Behaviour Checklist-Irritability score in the antipsychotic group with an effect size of −6.45 [95% confidence interval (CI) −8.13 to −4.77] (low certainty). Pooled Clinical Global Impression data on 11 placebo-controlled RCTs showed an overall effect size of 0.84 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.21) (moderate certainty). There was a significantly higher risk of overall adverse effects (p = 0.003) and also weight gain (p < 0.00001), sedation (p < 0.00001) and increased appetite (p = 0.001) in the antipsychotic group.

There is some evidence for risperidone and preliminary evidence for aripiprazole to significantly improve scores on some outcome measures among children with autism but not adults or for any other antipsychotics. There is a definite increased risk of antipsychotic-related different adverse effects.

Type D personality and depression are the independent psychological risk factors for adverse outcomes in cardiovascular patients. The aim of this study was to examine the combined effect of Type D personality and depression on clinical outcomes in patients suffering from acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

This prospective cohort study included 3568 patients diagnosed with AMI between February 2017 and September 2018. Type D personality and depression were assessed at baseline, while the major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rate (cardiac death, recurrent non-fatal myocardial infarction, revascularization, and stroke) and in-stent restenosis (ISR) rate were analyzed after a 2-year follow-up period.

A total of 437 patients developed MACEs and 185 had ISR during the follow-up period. The Type D (+) depression (+) and Type D (+) depression (−) groups had a higher risk of MACE [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.74–6.07] (95% CI 1.25–2.96) and ISR (95% CI 3.09–8.28) (95% CI 1.85–6.22). Analysis of Type D and depression as continuous variables indicated that the main effect of Type D, depression and their combined effect were significantly associated with MACE and ISR. Moreover, Type D (+) depression (+) and Type D (+) depression (−) emerged as significant risk factors for MACE and ISR in males, while only Type D (+) depression (+) was associated with MACE and ISR in female patients.

These findings suggest that patients complicated with depression and Type D personality are at a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Individual assessments of Type D personality and depression, and comprehensive interventions are required.