Drawing on the case of American Muslim voter engagement in the 2024 election season, this article argues that election-forecasting models – particularly state-based models – should integrate minority populations into their analysis as crucial variables. This is of particular significance in swing states. By including minority-voter engagement and related variables relevant to them such as pressing policy concerns (e.g., anti-war sentiment and racial attitudes), forecasters can better understand and predict electoral outcomes and address the gaps identified in traditional forecasting approaches. The recommendations presented in this article help election forecasters prepare for unexpected changes, such as the American Muslim shift of support away from President Biden in the 2024 primary election season.

Our 2020 analysis correctly forecasted Joe Biden’s victory and the outcome of every state except Georgia. That forecast relied on economic data from 125 days prior to Election Day and presidential approval data from 104 days (or more) before the election. Since 2000, our model would have correctly forecasted the winner in 95% of all states. We updated our State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model for 2024. This article summarizes the model and its historical accuracy as well as new data updates. We then generate forecasts for the overall two-party popular vote, each state’s outcome, and the Electoral College winner for the 2024 US presidential election. One hundred days prior to Election Day, our model forecasts a split two-party popular vote (50.3% for Trump, 49.7% for Harris) but a notable Trump advantage in the Electoral College, with slightly less than a three-in-four chance that Trump wins the election. This Republican advantage 100 days prior to Election Day sheds light on Biden’s abrupt decision to drop out of the race and suggests that if Harris wins, she will have overcome extremely challenging fundamentals, and/or that Donald Trump and the Republican Party will have squandered a sizeable Electoral College advantage.