Quantitative research has established a strong association between ethnopolitical exclusion and civil war onset, but direct investigation of the proposed causal pathway has been limited. This article applies large-N qualitative analysis (LNQA) to 15 post–Cold War cases to trace how exclusion may generate grievances, mobilization, and conflict escalation. In nine cases, grievance-based mobilization preceded civil war, and escalation followed governments’ reliance on indiscriminate repression or on inconsistent mixes of rejection and accommodation. In six cases, however, conflict itself produced exclusion, revealing recursive dynamics rather than a one-way sequence. These findings refine grievance theory by showing that escalation is shaped by patterns of state response and that exclusion may also emerge as a result of violence. More broadly, the study demonstrates how systematic qualitative analysis across multiple cases can trace mechanisms, address concerns about endogeneity and measurement validity, and still support cautious generalization.

Concepts are the building blocks of social science. Yet, like all aspects of the discipline, they are subject to biases and unexamined assumptions. Rethinking how we use concepts is important for creating useful concepts and theories, as well as for broadening the perspectives that are recognized in the discipline. Nonetheless, today, there is insufficient guidance for scholars looking to challenge existing concepts. Despite this, numerous social science scholars, particularly qualitative scholars, have long used different solutions for reconstructing existing concepts to make sense of their immediate observations. In this article, we bring together these similar strategies under the banner of a single approach, which we call theory reconstruction. Distinct from both theory building and theory testing, theory reconstruction is an abductive, or “puzzle-based,” approach to research that uses discrepancies between one’s empirical observations and the literature to challenge key concepts. Using examples of existing scholarship, we propose four strategies of theory reconstruction (revising, narrowing, extending, and disrupting), each of which serves as an accessible way to unsettle entrenched assumptions in the discipline, invite new perspectives, and encourage more theory-based research.

In this paper, we explore the electoral consequences of the opioid epidemic in the United States, particularly its relationship with the Republican vote share in US presidential elections. We argue that the worsening opioid crisis is associated with a shift toward the Republican Party, and that these gains result from a decline in both Democratic support and voter abstention. We test these expectations using county-level presidential election results and individual-level data. The findings show that increasing overdose death rates are associated with an increase in Republican votes and a decline in Democratic votes and voter abstention. Additionally, the survey analyses reveal that this relationship is strongest among independents. Independents are also more likely to support stricter border security and higher spending on law enforcement as drug death rates increase. Our study contributes to the growing literature on the political consequences of the drug crisis in the US by demonstrating how overdose death rates are associated with voting behavior, and identifying which voters are most likely to change their vote in response to this worsening situation.

Assembling datasets is crucial for advancing social science research, but researchers who construct datasets often face difficult decisions with little guidance. Once public, these datasets are sometimes used without proper consideration of their creators’ choices and how these affect the validity of inferences. To support both data creators and data users, we discuss the strengths, limitations, and implications of various data collection methodologies and strategies, showing how seemingly trivial methodological differences can significantly impact conclusions. The lessons we distill build on the process of constructing three cross-national datasets on education systems. Despite their common focus, these datasets differ in the dimensions they measure, as well as their definitions of key concepts, coding thresholds and other assumptions, types of coders, and sources. From these lessons, we develop and propose general guidelines for dataset creators and users aimed at enhancing transparency, replicability, and valid inferences in the social sciences.

Political scientists often assume that women had no political rights before the twentieth century. Archival records show that this is not the case and reveal an unlikely group of politically active women: Catholic nuns. Using novel data for more than 150 assembly meetings between 1493 and 1789, I demonstrate that ecclesiastical women exercised political rights systematically across France, despite a patriarchal church and monarchy. Ecclesiastical women had political rights because they were economic actors with a stake in state finances and local affairs. Theoretically, I argue that early representative practices ought to be viewed as a tool used by rulers to increase compliance with governance activities. Accordingly, rulers had an incentive to afford rights of representation to those actors on whose compliance they depended: most often, these were economic actors, including some women. From this perspective, select women’s inclusion should have been the default in many early representative institutions. This logic extends beyond ecclesiastical women in France, turning on its head the taken-for-granted assumption of women’s historical political exclusion.