In this paper we study a series of servers with exponentially distributed service times. We find that the sojourn time of a customer at any server depends on the customer's past history only through the customer's interarrival time to that server. A method of calculating the conditional probabilities of sojourn times is developed.

A Markovian process with rewards is considered. The interference into its development consists in instantaneous changes of state called replacements. It is shown that, for any replacement policy not depending on the future, the expected reward is a linear function of the expected replacement numbers. The application of this result is illustrated by examples.

Univariate probability inequalities have received extensive attention. It has been shown that under certain conditions, product-type bounds are valid and sharper than summation-type bounds. Although results concerning multivariate inequalities have appeared in the literature, product-type bounds in a multivariate setting have not yet been studied. This note explores an approach using graph theory and linear programming techniques to construct product-type lower bounds for the probability of the intersection among unions of k sets of events.

We consider a stochastic process in a modified Ehrenfest urn model. The modification prescribes there to be a minimum number of balls in each urn, and the process records the differences between treatment assignments under a sampling scheme implemented with this modified Ehrenfest urn model. In contrast to the result that the difference process forms a Markov chain and converges to a stationary distribution under the Ehrenfest urn model, the corresponding process under this modified Ehrenfest urn design satisfies the central limit property. We prove this asymptotic normality property using a central limit theorem for dependent random variables, renewal theory, and two Kolmogorov-type maximal inequalities.

We call `bits' a sequence of devices indexed by positive integers, where every device can be in two states: 0 (idle) and 1 (active). Start from the `ground state' of the system when all bits are in 0-state. In our first binary flipping (BF) model the evolution of the system behaves as follows. At each time step choose one bit from a given distribution P on the positive integers independently of anything else, then flip the state of this bit to the opposite state. In our second damaged bits (DB) model a `damaged' state is added: each selected idling bit changes to active, but selecting an active bit changes its state to damaged in which it then stays forever. In both models we analyse the recurrence of the system's ground state when no bits are active. We present sufficient conditions for both the BF and DB models to show recurrent or transient behaviour, depending on the properties of the distribution P. We provide a bound for fractional moments of the return time to the ground state for the BF model, and prove a central limit theorem for the number of active bits for both models.

The no restart random walk (NRRW) is a random network growth model driven by a random walk that builds the graph while moving on it, adding and connecting a new leaf node to the current position of the walker every s steps. We show a fundamental dichotomy in NRRW with respect to the parity of s: for ${s}=1$ we prove that the random walk is transient and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded above by an exponential distribution; for s even we prove that the random walk is recurrent and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded below by a power law distribution. These theoretical findings highlight and confirm the diverse and rich behaviour of NRRW observed empirically.

We investigate conditions in order to decide whether a given sequence of real numbers represents expected maxima or expected ranges. The main result provides a novel necessary and sufficient condition, relating an expected maxima sequence to a translation of a Bernstein function through its Lévy–Khintchine representation.

Asymptotic expansions are obtained for the distribution function of a studentized estimator of the offspring mean sequence in an array branching process with immigration. The expansion result is shown to hold in a test function topology. As an application of this result, it is shown that the bootstrapping distribution of the estimator of the offspring mean in a sub-critical branching process with immigration also admits the same expansion (in probability). From these considerations, it is concluded that the bootstrapping distribution provides a better approximation asymptotically than the normal distribution.

We prove concentration inequality results for geometric graph properties of an instance of the Cooper–Frieze [5] preferential attachment model with edge-steps. More precisely, we investigate a random graph model that at each time $t\in \mathbb{N}$ , with probability p adds a new vertex to the graph (a vertex-step occurs) or with probability $1-p$ an edge connecting two existent vertices is added (an edge-step occurs). We prove concentration results for the global clustering coefficient as well as the clique number. More formally, we prove that the global clustering, with high probability, decays as $t^{-\gamma(p)}$ for a positive function $\gamma$ of p, whereas the clique number of these graphs is, up to subpolynomially small factors, of order $t^{(1-p)/(2-p)}$ .

A family of distribution-free statistics along with related tests is defined and properties of its members are studied. These statistics, one of which is the Smirnov-Wald and Wolfowitz statistic, Dn+ yield tests of the one-sided hypotheses. The minimax and maximin tests in this family against a restricted class of alternatives of minimum power are obtained. The connection to a confidence bound of Stringer for the mean is also remarked.

It is well known and readily seen that the maximum of n independent and uniformly on [0, 1] distributed random variables, suitably standardised, converges in total variation distance, as n increases, to the standard negative exponential distribution. We extend this result to higher dimensions by considering copulas. We show that the strong convergence result holds for copulas that are in a differential neighbourhood of a multivariate generalised Pareto copula. Sklar’s theorem then implies convergence in variational distance of the maximum of n independent and identically distributed random vectors with arbitrary common distribution function and (under conditions on the marginals) of its appropriately normalised version. We illustrate how these convergence results can be exploited to establish the almost-sure consistency of some estimation procedures for max-stable models, using sample maxima.

Two non-identical units are to be issued sequentially. The optimal policy determines the issuing sequence which maximizes the expected lifetime of the pair of units. The units each have non-decreasing hazard rates which depend on whether the unit is in service or in storage. Sufficient conditions are obtained for optimal issuing policies in a variety of examples.

The forward equations for the death process in ℕ2 with Q-matrix determined by q(i, j; i − 1, j) = αij, i ≧ 1, q(i, j; i, j − 1) = μj, j ≧ 1 are solved by giving a special interpretation to this Q-matrix.

This paper is concerned with the correlation structure of a stationary discrete time-series with long memory or long-range dependence. Given a sequence of bounded variation, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for a function generated from the sequence to be a proper correlation function. These conditions are applied to derive various slowly decaying correlation models. To obtain correlation models with short-range dependence from an absolutely summable sequence, a simple method is introduced.

We introduce a notion of kth order stochastic monotonicity and duality that allows us to unify the notion used in insurance mathematics (sometimes refereed to as Siegmund's duality) for the study of ruin probability and the duality responsible for the so-called put-call symmetries in option pricing. Our general kth order duality can be interpreted financially as put-call symmetry for powered options. The main objective of this paper is to develop an effective analytic approach to the analysis of duality that will lead to the full characterization of kth order duality of Markov processes in terms of their generators, which is new even for the well-studied case of put-call symmetries.

In this paper the distributions of the number of intersections of three, four and five random chords to a circle are obtained by a reduction technique employing Ptolemy's theorem. These results are then used to obtain the skewness and kurtosis of the number of intersections of n random chords to a circle.

In clinical trials with two treatment arms, Efron's biased coin design, Efron (1971), sequentially assigns a patient to the underrepresented arm with probability p > ½. Under this design the proportion of patients in any arm converges to ½, and the convergence rate is n-1, as opposed to n-½ under some other popular designs. The generalization of Efron's design to K ≥ 2 arms and an unequal target allocation ratio (q1, . . ., qK) can be found in some papers, most of which determine the allocation probabilities ps in a heuristic way. Nonetheless, it has been noted that by using inappropriate ps, the proportion of patients in the K arms never converges to the target ratio. We develop a general theory to answer the question of what allocation probabilities ensure that the realized proportions under a generalized design still converge to the target ratio (q1, . . ., qK) with rate n-1.

In this paper we study the assignment of packets to M parallel heterogeneous servers with no buffers. The controller does not have knowledge on the state of the servers and bases all decisions on the number of time slots ago that packets have been sent to the different servers. The objective of the controller is to minimize the expected average cost. We consider a general stationary arrival process, with no independence assumptions. We show that the problem can be transformed into a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We further show under quite general conditions on cost functions that only a finite number of states have to be considered in this MDP, which then implies the optimality of periodic policies. For the case of two servers we obtain a more detailed structure of the cost and optimal policies. In particular we show that the average cost function is multimodular, and we obtain expressions for the cost for MMPP and MAP processes. Finally we present an application to optimal robot scheduling for Web search engines.