This study aims to develop a curve-fitting approach for long-term COVID-19 mortality projections and evaluate its effectiveness as a scalable, data-driven tool for pandemic forecasting.

The basic characteristics of a dynamic curve-fitting approach capable of generating long-term projections are described. To demonstrate its utility, the model was retrospectively applied using mortality data from the start of the pandemic, January to June 2020 (6-month data), to project into the period between June 2020 and April 2021 (11-month projections).

For scenarios with the best fit, the difference between observed and projected total deaths varied in the projection period between 7.7% and 28.2%.

When the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, there was lack of understanding regarding its long-term impact. Available mathematical models were complex and typically provided short- and mid-term projections. The approach described generates long-term projections that are relatively easy to implement and can be enhanced to include other parameters such as vaccine impact or virus variants. The method could prove to be a valuable tool during a future pandemic.

This study examines the scope and trends of empirical research on training activities for flood disaster response teams.

A scoping review, adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines, was conducted in June 2024 across four electronic databases and grey literature. The analysis included experimental and quasi-experimental studies published since 2005. An initial pool of 1193 studies was identified, 18 met the eligibility criteria and were included in the final analysis.

These studies revealed three key themes: 1) evaluation and improvement of operational procedures, 2) preparation of response teams, and 3) management of health-related issues.

The results highlight the limited availability of empirical evidence in this area, reflecting the relatively small number of studies focusing specifically on training activities for flood disaster response teams. However, research in this field has shown growth since 2010, with a notable integration of educational technologies in most studies. Key training topics include psychological first aid and the evaluation of operational plans. Given the increasing frequency and severity of flood disasters due to global warming, further research is essential to develop and implement effective training programs, enabling response teams to address such emergencies more efficiently and comprehensively.

At present, COVID-19 has already spread rapidly as a global pandemic, just like SARS in 2003 and H1N1 swine influenza in 2009. This study analyzes surveillance and emergency responses to these three epidemics to identify gaps in public health emergency management.

This case-comparative study uses 6 critical time points to evaluate and compare the responses.

Results indicate that China has demonstrated improvements in pathogen identification and governmental coordination since the SARS outbreak, though its overall responsiveness during COVID-19 remained slower than that of the U.S. during the H1N1 pandemic. Specifically, the total response time for COVID-19 was 47 days—64 days faster than during SARS, but still 19 days slower than the U.S. response to H1N1.

Big data technology is crucial for China’s epidemic prevention and control, and has a significant influence on future detection and prevention.

Pharmacies play a critical role in healthcare systems, especially during emergencies. Disruptions in the supply of medicines and consumables pose significant challenges in disaster response and recovery. Given the complexity and socio-political sensitivity of the resilient medicine supply chain, this study aimed to assess the resilience of the supply chain of medicines and consumables during disasters in Iran based on the World Economic Forum framework.

A cross-sectional, descriptive-analytical study was conducted using a validated questionnaire. Data were collected from 224 pharmacies in Shiraz city using the census method for hospital-based pharmacies and cluster and simple random sampling methods for city-level pharmacies. The collected data were analyzed and modeled using SPSS v.21 and Smart PLS v.3 software.

The results confirmed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire developed for assessing the resilience of the supply chain of medicines and consumables during disasters based on the World Economic Forum framework. The results also demonstrated that participation (41.04), policy (30.22), information technology (26.72), and strategy (23.46) directly and positively contributed, respectively, to enhancing the resilience of the medicines and consumables supply chain during disasters.

According to the results, the medicines and consumables supply chain resilience in Iran can be improved by facilitating international partnerships, developing better relationships with suppliers, moving toward digital and information technology-based supply chains, having a strategic plan for the medicines and consumables supply chain in disasters, and developing coordinating policies and effective strategies.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released an official health advisory after receiving reports of patients in New Mexico and Arizona who experienced serious adverse health effects after swallowing methanol-based hand sanitizer (MBHS). CDC and America’s Poison Centers conducted enhanced surveillance using the National Poison Data System (NPDS) for all calls to poison centers (PCs) that reported exposure to MBHS.

We queried NPDS for human exposure cases to MBHS between June 22, 2020 and September 14, 2020. We conducted descriptive statistics to analyze by daily case volume, age group, sex, caller site, management site, exposure route, medical outcome, reason for exposure, clinical effects, and treatment.

Forty-nine states, Washington, DC, and the US Virgin Islands reported at least 1 exposure, with a total of 2164 cases. Adults aged 20-59 represented the largest proportion of cases (44.8%). Most calls (94.2%) were from a non-health care facility and were managed on site (82.4%). The exposure route was primarily dermal (88.8%) followed by ingestion (12.0%).

Quick response and action for exposures to MBHS containing products is essential to ensure public health safety. PCs remain a valuable resource for providing guidance and advice for toxic exposures.

It is becoming increasingly evident that women are affected differently from men before, during, and after disasters. This study aims to evaluate the safety, health, and privacy concerns associated with earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, focusing on the impact on women.

The study is a case study design within a qualitative research approach. The data obtained were evaluated using the thematic analysis method. In the study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 survivors of the earthquake. The data were analyzed with MAXQDA analysis software.

The study revealed that women have various health and safety risks. The main themes include experiences related to health, safety and privacy issues, hygiene, and other problems. Lack of adequate privacy, security problems, lack of appropriate resources and specialized facilities, women’s menstrual difficulties, exposure to or witnessing violence, and issues related to being alone were found to be important themes.

The root causes of women’s vulnerability during disasters should be identified, and programs should be designed to reduce this vulnerability. Strategies and policies based on the needs of women should be developed to reduce their future vulnerability. Inclusion of women in decision-making processes will be effective in the development of gender strategies.

To identify the health planning, health provision, and health lessons learned from unplanned or spontaneous mass gathering events.

This research used a scoping review design. Data was collected from 4 databases, using search terms relating to “mass gathering events,” “spontaneous events,” and “health services.” Data was extracted relating to the event characteristics, health usage, and patient outcomes. Extracted data were deductively coded against the surge capacity domains of staff, stuff/supplies, space, and systems.

Ten papers were included in this review. Most spontaneous mass gathering events were related to riots, civil unrest, or unplanned large parties, which required a response from the health care system. Health staff were predominantly from an ambulance, pre-\hospital, or emergency medical services. Additional personal protective equipment, such as ballistic equipment and respiratory protection, was required.

The planning for a health care response to a spontaneous mass gathering event requires a risk-based approach. Such an approach should be applied in local disaster and mass casualty plans as a hazard-specific response. Preparation and response should include interagency collaboration. Enhancing the reporting of spontaneous mass gathering events will provide insights for future planning and response.

The increasing frequency and severity of unexpected events in recent years underscore the need for more effective disaster management strategies. This study aimed to identify obstacles and solutions for serving affected groups, providing practical strategies for improved disaster response.

This qualitative content analysis study of the conventional type, conducted in 2024, involved semi-structured face-to-face interviews and a focused group discussion with 17 participants, including university experts, executive bodies, and affected individuals. The method of “Granheim and Lundman” was used to analyze the data, and “Lincoln and Guba’s” four criteria were used to establish the reliability of the data.

A total of 348 themes were identified, ultimately refined to 245 themes after repetition analysis. These themes were categorized into eight main categories: “Management, Financial and Non-Financial Resources, Programs, Educational Affairs, Organizational Matters, Community Affairs, Participation, and Spiritual Affairs.” Additionally, 29 subcategories were extracted.

This study reveals key obstacles in disaster service delivery, including inadequate management, resources, and coordination. Solutions such as enhancing communication, clarifying roles, and promoting community participation can address these challenges. Strengthening public education, updating regulations, and integrating local cultural and spiritual support systems are essential for improving crisis response.

The COVID-19 pandemic spurred efforts to develop emergency ventilators, though few progressed beyond laboratory testing. This study evaluates CoroVent, a rapidly manufactured ventilator, during real-life deployment in critically ill COVID-19 patients amid ventilator shortages.

This retrospective observational study included patients ventilated with emergency ventilator CoroVent. This device uses a novel and unique way of generating inspiratory flow and gas mixing using fast ON/OFF valves for air and oxygen, producing pneumatic pulses that are then smoothed into continuous flow. Clinical data were collected from 3 hospitals between October 2020 and March 2021, selected from 27 contacted, of which 23 responded and 4 reported clinical use.

Eight male patients (mean age 67 years, BMI 37.2 kg·m–2) with COVID-19 or suspected infection were ventilated with CoroVent for 31.3 (10.0–58.5) hours. The mean FiO2 was 71.4%, PEEP 10.6 cmH2O, and Vt 8.9 mL·kg–1 predicted body weight. CoroVent was used as an initial or replacement ventilator during device shortages. No major technical failures occurred.

This is the first report of real-life clinical use of a rapidly manufactured emergency ventilator during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results confirm that such devices, if well-designed, can provide effective respiratory support when conventional ventilators are unavailable.

Remote injury assessment during natural disasters poses major challenges for healthcare providers due to the inaccessibility of disaster sites. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for rapid assessment of traumatic injuries based on gait analysis.

We conducted an AI-based investigation using a dataset of 4500 gait images across 3 species: humans, dogs, and rabbits. Each image was categorized as either normal or limping. A deep learning model, YOLOv5—a state-of-the-art object detection algorithm—was trained to identify and classify limping gait patterns from normal ones. Model performance was evaluated through repeated experiments and statistical validation.

The YOLOv5 model demonstrated high accuracy in distinguishing between normal and limp gaits across species. Quantitative performance metrics confirmed the model’s reliability, and qualitative case studies highlighted its potential application in remote, fast traumatic assessment scenarios.

The use of AI, particularly deep convolutional neural networks like YOLOv5, shows promise in enabling fast, remote traumatic injury assessment during disaster response. This approach could assist healthcare professionals in identifying injury risks when physical access to patients is restricted, thereby improving triage efficiency and early intervention.

Health care professionals have a crucial role to play in every stage of preparing for and managing disasters. Thus, it is essential to equip health care professionals with the knowledge, skill, and competency to ensure they can adequately prepare to respond to disasters. The aim of our systematic review is to describe and evaluate the effect of educational interventions on hospital-based health care professionals’ knowledge, skills, and competencies pertaining to disaster preparedness.

The review was conducted on research articles published between 2013 and 2023, sourced from five databases: CINAHL, Medline, Embase, SCOPUS, and ERIC. An intervention complexity assessment tool for systematic reviews was adapted to judge the level of intervention complexity.

A total of 11,688 citations were screened for eligibility, and 53 studies met the inclusion criteria. Notably, 74% of included studies focused on knowledge assessment. Judging the complexity of intervention revealed that 60% of the included interventions scored moderate complexity, and 19% scored high complexity. Notably, all high-complexity interventions resulted in significant improvements in outcomes.

This review demonstrates that knowledge, skills, and competencies of health care professionals and students can be enhanced through targeted disaster preparedness educational interventions. High-complexity interventions were especially successful in improving the disaster preparedness of health care participants.

Disaster preparedness is a critical component of nursing education as nurses are expected to respond effectively to public health emergencies. Various disaster nursing education programs have been developed globally, but their effectiveness across cognitive, affective, and psychomotor domains remains unclear. This meta-analysis evaluated the overall impact of these programs across learning domains.

Eleven experimental or quasi-experimental studies involving nursing students and nurses were included. The pooled effect size was calculated using Hedges’ g. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran’s Q and the I2 statistic. Subgroup analyses were conducted by learning domain. Publication bias was assessed via a funnel plot.

The overall effect size was large (Hedges’ g = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.491-2.399, P < .001). Heterogeneity was high (Q = 377.91, P < .001, I2 = 97.4%). The affective domain showed the strongest effect (g = 2.96), followed by psychomotor (g = 1.98) and cognitive (g = 0.66). The funnel plot showed minimal publication bias.

Disaster nursing education programs significantly improve learning outcomes across domains, especially in attitudes and practical skills. These findings support the need for integrated curricula in nursing education.

To compare the effectiveness of tabletop exercises (TTX) and high-fidelity in-person simulations (IPS) in improving knowledge, confidence, and perceived preparedness in disaster medicine among emergency medicine residents.

A prospective, randomized educational intervention was conducted across 2 urban emergency medicine residency programs. Sixty-three residents were randomized to TTX or IPS groups. Each group completed a preintervention knowledge and confidence assessment, participated in their assigned exercise based on a simulated mass casualty incident (MCI), and underwent a structured debrief. Postintervention surveys assessed change in knowledge and self-reported comfort levels. A paired 2-tailed Student’s t-test was utilized to compare results. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.01.

Both groups demonstrated increased self-reported confidence and knowledge regarding management of MCIs. TTX participants showed higher median post-test scores (77.4%, N = 38) compared to IPS participants (67.4%, N = 25). Results were not statistically significant (P = 0.079).

TTX is an effective modality for disaster medicine education, with outcomes comparable to IPS. While TTX may better align with knowledge-based assessments, IPS remains essential for practicing real-time decision-making under stress. Combining these 2 modalities may provide both the knowledge base and psychological duress required for robust disaster scenario training.

We aimed to investigate the private health service delivery sector’s engagement in public health emergency preparedness and response in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

Between November 2022 and March 2023, private health care providers from registered clinics and hospitals (n = 574) and pharmacies (n = 1008) were surveyed on their participation and willingness to engage in specific public health emergency preparedness and response activities.

In Vietnam, 40% of respondents reported being engaged in emergency response between 2020 and 2022, compared to 33% in Cambodia and 25% in Laos. Provider and pharmacist participation in the COVID-19 response was largely through their own initiative and included on-the-job COVID-19 trainings, providing health information to patients, and assisting with testing and contact tracing. Respondents expressed high levels of willingness to participate in a broad range of proposed activities, particularly those from clinics or hospitals and those with previous experience.

While respondent willingness for involvement in preparedness and response is high, only a small proportion of respondents had been engaged by health authorities, revealing missed opportunities for fully leveraging private health care providers. Future policy and programmatic efforts to strengthen health security in view of more resilient mixed health systems should proactively engage private sector actors.

This study examined how social vulnerability factors—such as caregiving, economic instability, and nonregular employment—affect disaster preparedness and awareness, with a focus on nonlinear associations with evacuation and disaster awareness.

Cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative survey

Data came from the 2023 Japan COVID-19 and Society Internet Survey (JACSIS), including 28,481 participants. Factor analysis identified two preparedness domains: evacuation awareness and disaster preparedness awareness. Generalized linear models (GLM) assessed associations between awareness scores and sociodemographic and health factors. Sensitivity analysis used a random forest model, and logistic regression examined predictors of low awareness.

Two factors explained 76% of variance in preparedness behaviors. GLM showed that older age (Estimate = 10.99, P < .001), larger household size (Estimate = 4.34, P < .001), high income (Estimate = 0.08, P < .001), and community attachment (Estimate = 0.09, P < .001) were positively related to evacuation awareness, while nonregular employment (Estimate = -0.03, P = .01) and public assistance (Estimate = -0.05, P < .001) were negatively associated. Logistic regression confirmed that reliance on public assistance (OR = 1.54, 95% CI [1.26, 1.87]) and nonregular employment increased odds of low preparedness.

Social vulnerability factors are linked to lower disaster awareness, identifying a subgroup at higher risk. Preparedness policies should account for demographic and economic disparities, emphasizing tailored, community-based strategies to improve resilience among vulnerable populations.

To combat declining trust in public health and effectively communicate during public health emergencies, it is critical for the public health workforce to engage with their communities through social media. Little is known about factors that influence the degree to which public health practitioners use social media for information sharing and bidirectional communication. This study aimed to examine perspectives on barriers to incorporating social media use into efforts to rebuild trust in public health.

31 semistructured interviews were conducted with public health practitioners and subject matter experts. Common themes and barriers to using social media were identified using rapid thematic analysis and analyzed by levels of the socioecological framework.

Barriers to public health practitioner social media use included lack of training, time, and fear (individual-level); limited online and offline relationships (interpersonal); lack of resources and supportive policies (organizational); and politicization of public health (societal).

This study identifies modifiable factors that could be intervened upon to strengthen the public health workforce’s social media communication and highlights existing efforts to address barriers. Sustained investment is required to ensure that public health communicators are maximally supported to effectively use social media for trust-building and communication during public health emergencies.