INTRODUCTION
During recent years economists have again been devoting attention to the issue of economic growth. In contrast to the neoclassical growth models derived in the Solow (1956)–Swan (1956) tradition, in which the steadystate rate of growth is given exogenously by technological and demographic factors, in the more recent literature the long-run growth rate is endogenously determined as the equilibrium outcome of the system; see, e.g., Barro (1990), Ireland (1994), Jones and Manuelli (1990), Lucas (1988), Rebelo (1991), Romer (1986) and Turnovsky (1996, 2000b). This is important, since it assigns a potentially significant role to fiscal policy as a determinant of long-run growth performance, something that is infeasible in the Solow–Swan framework. While the endogenous growth framework is not without its limitations, it provides an attractive and tractable approach to addressing issues pertaining to fiscal policy in an intertemporal context.
Most of the endogenous growth literature is based on perfect certainty. However, the endogenous growth framework can be easily extended to a stochastic context and thereby analyse issues relating to risk-taking and economic growth. The objective of this chapter is to construct such a stochastic growth model and to use it to analyse aspects of fiscal policy in the context of a stochastically growing economy. The formulation and solution of the problem employs continuous-time intertemporal optimising methods, rather than adopting the more familiar discrete-time approach. The main reason for this choice is that although continuous-time problems are tractable only under restrictive conditions, when these conditions are met, the solutions they yield are highly transparent, providing substantial insights into the characteristics of the equilibrium and the role of risk in its determination.
We should emphasise that our focus is on characterising the macroeconomic equilibrium, and to deriving its implications for macroeconomic policy-making – particularly fiscal policy – rather than on dwelling on the technical details of the solution procedures. At the same time, we should stress that the solutions themselves do involve substantial technical details and that the solutions to these stochastic growth models can be quite challenging.
A key assumption necessary to sustain a steady stochastic growth equilibrium is that all random disturbances are proportional to the current state of the economy, as represented by the capital stock or wealth.